ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Category5Kaiju]

Yeah, now that Beryl is trying to develop a visible eye (YET AGAIN, lol), I am pretty confident to say that it is tracking more northward than many of the current model guidance suggests. And I have yet to see a movement due W or WSW.

In other words, I'm really starting to get antsy about what it's going to do in the Gulf and the dangers it might pose toward Texas.

[bbadon]

I have followed this board for many many years and I have learned an incredible amount by everyone and for that I am grateful. I'm just a tropical weather enthusiast and very rarely post but I have a question. As the ULL over the gulf is obviously shearing the system to a degree, is that not causing the MLC to be tugged to the /north/northeast at least a bit and influencing the LLC to cause the northerly component we see to last longer than expected? Or is it decoupling?

[tolakram]

[kevco]

Yeah, now that Beryl is trying to develop a visible eye (YET AGAIN, lol), I am pretty confident to say that it is tracking more northward than many of the current model guidance suggests. And I have yet to see a movement due W or WSW.

In other words, I'm really starting to get antsy about what it's going to do in the Gulf and the dangers it might pose toward Texas.

I agree, most likely track adjustments will need to be made. Closer to Galveston/ Tx-LA border.

[Kazmit]

https://i.imgur.com/W2jacdg.gif

Looking like a storm that will not hesitate to take off once the shear abates a little more.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1808906329894863232

[cheezyWXguy]

So I see more shear today, not less, and I think it's tilting NE now, which is causing a lot of "this wasn't supposed to happen" posts on social media. One never knows, but without seeing the lower levels I think it's still on track.


https://i.imgur.com/Pmg6r6m.gif

source: https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#

I’m not sure I agree. That map shows the 11am updated track, which has been nudged slightly north from previous forecasts. Beryl is at about 19.2-19.3N now, and looks like it’ll hit 19.5N before 84W, based on its current heading. Last night’s 11pm advisory didn’t have that occurring until 86.7W.

[Horn1991]

So I see more shear today, not less, and I think it's tilting NE now, which is causing a lot of "this wasn't supposed to happen" posts on social media. One never knows, but without seeing the lower levels I think it's still on track.


https://i.imgur.com/Pmg6r6m.gif

source: https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#

I think you are dead on with this idea.

[TheAustinMan]

So I see more shear today, not less, and I think it's tilting NE now, which is causing a lot of "this wasn't supposed to happen" posts on social media. One never knows, but without seeing the lower levels I think it's still on track.

https://i.imgur.com/Pmg6r6m.gif

The upper-level trough causing the northeasterly flow is moving west in tandem with Beryl, and as trades slow in the western Caribbean, this will reduce wind shear magnitude gradually over the course of the day. Overall, conditions improve over the next ~18 or so hours between now and the Yucatan Peninsula. Cayman Islands radar data indicates that the core has plenty of work to do if Beryl is to intensify substantially, but the "skeleton" so to speak is there. All in all, the upper-level environment is not ideal, but robust ocean heat content may give Beryl some leverage in dealing with the wind shear later today into tonight, especially if it is to taper off as modeled storm-environment hodographs suggest:

Source: AOML Hurricane Model Viewer


The satellite observed dimple on visible imagery is consistent with the eye observed by recon, though the eyewall is currently weaker/open to the west.

[zhukm29]

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Unless she starts turning west, it looks like Beryl wants to make its way to Cancun for some fun at the LeBlanc Spa Resort.

[jaguars_22]

I don’t think the NHC is that far off! No way it hits Cancun??!!
Cozumel is more likely even south of there?

[kevco]

Unless she starts turning west, it looks like Beryl wants to make its way to Cancun for some fun at the LeBlanc Spa Resort.

Barely brushes tip of Yucatán, slows forward motion then begins NNW motion tonite and early tomorrow, landfall Tx/ La border Monday evening Tuesday morning.

[Keldeo1997]

 https://x.com/DerekOrtt/status/1808908110129414306

[LearnedHat]

Need to have two discussion boards:

Hurricane - “Thank you sir! May I have another” Discussion

Hurricane - “Often wrong, never in doubt” Discussion

[UTSARoadrunner4]

I don’t think the NHC is that far off! No way it hits Cancun??!!
Cozumel is more likely even south of there?

Even if the eye hits Cozumel/Playa Del Carmen, Cancun is only ~42 miles away. I would assume that would put them well within the eyewall.

[wxman57]

Don't read too much into wobbles. Should track south of Cozumel (maybe not too far south) and make landfall south of Brownsville. Of course, the key will be how much the core is destroyed over the Yucatan tomorrow. If it's really torn up, then a farther south track is likely. HAFS-A and HAFS-B shifted south to near Tampico.

Levi has a new video just published: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NpC6Z_OCI-0

[Hurricane2022]

Ah yes Beryl, we already know you are strengtheing again despite the strong shear. Now go play outside and stop bothering us.

[Bimms]

I don't think it's just a wobble, I didn't think it's going south of Cozumel. Unless she really takes a sharp south turn, she's going to skirt the tip of the Yucatan, almost shooting the gap. I've been saying this for a while now. I'm no meteorologist, but with the way this storm has been behaving, it's a safe bet to go against the models and traditional models.

[3090]

Don't read too much into wobbles. Should track south of Cozumel (maybe not too far south) and make landfall south of Brownsville. Of course, the key will be how much the core is destroyed over the Yucatan tomorrow. If it's really torn up, then a farther south track is likely. HAFS-A and HAFS-B shifted south to near Tampico.

Levi has a new video just published: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NpC6Z_OCI-0

Wobbles? I have not really taken note of any wobbles. I do see a very steady 285 heading. It would need to head at a 270 heading or less to land below Cozumel like right now and in the immediate future.