ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MississippiWx]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1809065139984851427

Pressure appears to be rising again and core taking a battering

Yes, it appears to have hit another lull the last 4 hours or so. We will see if it’s temporary or the beginning of a weakening trend until it emerges into the Gulf.

[AtlanticWind]

Taking a beating tonight. We will see if has another comeback in it

[AtlanticWind]

Pressure up to 973mb

[wx98]

Likely going to stay on a slight weakening trend as it heads into Mexico today. It briefly reintensified this afternoon but has been weakening since the first couple recon passes. Despite numerous comments here to the contrary, the NHC track has been nearly spot on and the hurricane tracked WNW from Jamaica to just south of Cozumel just as forecast. That being said, a landfall within 50 miles north or south of Brownsville as a low-end hurricane is the most likely scenario. This could be more of a case where the inner core gets disrupted and any pressure drops go to expanding the windfield instead of increasing windspeeds.

Intensity on the other hand has been all over the board and NHC has been behind from day 1. Storms like this that don’t follow “normal” rules are exceptionally hard to forecast. Just like this evening, the storm was already a Cat 3 and by the time it was upgraded tonight, it was already weakening back to a Cat 2. Still much to learn in that camp.

[ColdMiser123]

Barring a west wobble, the center should pass very close to, or even over the island of Cozumel. Has jogged quite a bit to the north over the last couple hours.

[AtlanticWind]

Center may be exposed soon, shear seems to have increased some

[3090]

Beryl is a rag tag mess this morning after a rough night out…she is going to require a lot of makeup and some plastic surgery just to look close like what she once was a day or two ago. She has not aged well at all…

[bob rulz]

I imagine Beryl will have a hard time reorganizing once it emerges into the GoM with 12+ hours over land, but I'm not ready to count her out completely given the history of the storm.

[Stratton23]

Beryl will unfortunately be going over the part of the yucatan where the terrain is mostly flat, while the core will get disrupted, im not so sure its going to weaken as much as some may think

[Cpv17]

I imagine Beryl will have a hard time reorganizing once it emerges into the GoM with 12+ hours over land, but I'm not ready to count her out completely given the history of the storm.

Hurricane models don’t have it over land that long. More like 9-12 hours tops.

[kevin]

Quite a big shift north in the forecast track of the latest advisory, now a Texas landfall. And the discussion explicitly mentions that further north shifts might be necessary. It is currently at 20.1N, 86.9W, which means that the > 20N before landfall models (which nearly all showed a US landfall) yesterday were correct.

The overall guidance this cycle has also
made a notable shift northward and is a bit slower than earlier, and
the NHC forecast track has been shifted in that direction, quite
close to the consensus aid TVCN. However, it is not quite as far
north as the latest ECMWF or GFS tracks, and further adjustments in
that direction may be necessary later today.

[LSU Saint]

Just woke up, GFS looking more and more like the ICON?

[3090]

Just woke up, GFS looking more and more like the ICON?

But just remember most of the more knowlegeable folks do not adhere or subscribe to the GFS model for forecast track. Instead they prefer the king EURO for whatever that is worth. So…

[Hammy]

Eye looks like it's getting better organized and wrapping around again, despite the intense shear, as shown on both Belize and Mexican radar

[jlauderdal]

Just woke up, GFS looking more and more like the ICON?

But just remember most of the more knowlegeable folks do not adhere or subscribe to the GFS model for forecast track. Instead they prefer the king EURO for whatever that is worth. So…

The knowledgeable folks dont subscribe to one model for hurricane tracking-experience, multiple models, etc make up the track for the knowledgeable folks you are speaking about, GFS has been better this season at least in the longer term. Anyone subscribing to just one model will get crushed on track; knowledgeable folks know that; NHC will come further N at 11.

[GCANE]

That ULL in the GoM looks formidable.
Strong PVS wall for Beryl to hit as she enters into the GoM.
ULL will move west and anchor inshore on east side of Mexico providing a strong directional shear (south to north) for Beryl to ride through.
Doubt Beryl will get much above a TS in the GoM.
May get some slight strengthening before landfall due to a high CAPE pool that typically sits offshore of the TX coast.

[hurricaneCW]

That ULL in the GoM looks formidable.
Strong PVS wall for Beryl to hit as she enters into the GoM.
ULL will move west and anchor inshore on east side of Mexico providing a strong directional shear (south to north) for Beryl to ride through.
Doubt Beryl will get much above a TS in the GoM.
May get some slight strengthening before landfall due to a high CAPE pool that typically sits offshore of the TX coast.

For a lot of people's sake, I hope this ages well.

[Teban54]

From Papin:

Thereafter, the
subtropical ridge north of Beryl that has been steering it for many
days now will become eroded in the western Gulf of Mexico from a
long-wave trough located over the Central U.S. In addition, an
upper-level low seen retrograding westward in the Gulf of Mexico
could also impart more poleward steering in the western Gulf of
Mexico. How sharply Beryl turns poleward from 36-72 h will likely
depend on the storm's vertical depth, with a more vertically deep
system more likely to feel the ridge weakness and upper-level flow.
In fact, that scenario has been highlighted by the last few cycles
of the ECMWF ensembles which show stronger solutions on the north
side of the track envelope. The overall guidance this cycle has also
made a notable shift northward and is a bit slower than earlier, and
the NHC forecast track has been shifted in that direction, quite
close to the consensus aid TVCN. However, it is not quite as far
north as the latest ECMWF or GFS tracks, and further adjustments in
that direction may be necessary later today.

However, both the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance shows
shear dropping under 10 kt after 48 hours, while the storm traverses
29-30 C sea-surface temperatures. Such an environment should favor
strengthening, and the raw model output from the GFS and ECMWF
suggests significant deepening as Beryl approaches the coastline of
northeastern Mexico and south Texas. Somewhat surprisingly, the
hurricane-regional models are more subdued and suggest less
intensification this cycle, but these models have been oscillating
between stronger and weaker solutions. The latest NHC intensity
forecast will show a bit more intensification than the prior
advisory, which is on the high end of the intensity guidance, but
more in line with the expected favorable environment as Beryl
approaches landfall.

[Teban54]

Beryl's eye is seemingly getting a bit better defined on IR at the Yucatan landfall:

[kevin]

Latest Dvorak fix (50 minutes ago) puts it at 20.2N, 87.1W.