ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Nimbus]

Nimbus
The dry lower levels are still on track and even the shallow steering model shifts more northerly and keeps Beryl offshore beyond 24 hours.

What does this mean exactly?

As a tropical storm Beryl might follow the shallow steering which is slightly more westerly for the first 24 hours.
You can see the lower level circulation in the video Mark posted.
The shallow steering model aims towards Corpus in the long run so its not heading into Mexico..

[GCANE]

If Beryl gets in the middle of a PV ring, intensification could be epic.
Looks like it is almost half way there. Its pushing the ULL away to the west.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=

[typhoonty]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT02/refresh/AL022024_3day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/212133_3day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

IMO, history is not going to look kindly on the NHC failing to issue any kind of tropical product or watch for the Houston MSA, or points east right now on the Friday before a holiday weekend.

Signed, someone who had to deal with way too many people not taking Ian seriously for this reason in Fort Myers.

We're still not in the 48 hour range for Houston. If it moves farther up, it wouldn't make landfall until late Monday or even very early Tuesday.

That is not what the NHC's own graphic seems to imply, which the earliest possible arrival for all of the hurricane watch area and further northeast at roughly the same time, Sunday Afternoon.

Michelle B hit the nail on the head, the point is making sure that Houstonians have a heads up before tomorrow even if they don't watch the news. Tropical products are automatically loaded via gps in to a phones default weather app. If someone didn't watch the news and goes to bed at 10:30, they might not know until tomorrow.

[GCANE]

Latest eye drop shows a super-saturated core.
Slightly north of forecast track

[Frank P]

MLC is fading. We've been here before, and I swear usually a hot tower fired around the LLC just at or after sunset. Emergence timing is everything, but will it happen again?

https://i.imgur.com/4SSFLNd.gif

just notice this convection pop up near the center on the last few images of the IR... not much but perhaps a start? Circled in purple

[Steve]

I hear you typhoonty but people in coastal and near coastal communities have to own their own situations as well. It’s not just the NHC or tv news. If people don’t want to pay attention or simply don’t, whose fault is it? I was talking to this lady at work in May when the government’s extreme seasonal forecast came out. And she waved it off and said “they say that every year” and shook her head. That’s more a macro than an immediate situation but it’s along the same lines. I used to hear, “they always curve away at the last minute.” Then Katrina hit (and a bunch more) and that’s like a wives tale. People gonna believe what they want and tune into what they want. People should be happy they are part of this community and have a lot of advance notice. Jmo.

[LARanger]

Faster loop makes it easier to see. LLC is west of MLC I think, and you can see it near the end of the loop.

https://i.imgur.com/LOMY3QV.gif

If you were suggesting a new eye like the poster right above your post, recon doesn't seem to concur:

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 3#p3073523

[ROCK]

The 7pm advisory they kept the cone pretty much like the 4pm. Do they not update given the 18z runs? Asking for a friend..

[Frank P]

The 7pm advisory they kept the cone pretty much like the 4pm. Do they not update given the 18z runs? Asking for a friend..

Cone is updated at 10 pm CDT

[Hurricaneman]

The 7pm advisory they kept the cone pretty much like the 4pm. Do they not update given the 18z runs? Asking for a friend..

The update the cone at 5 and 11 not on intermediate advisories

[Charleswachal]

The 7pm advisory they kept the cone pretty much like the 4pm. Do they not update given the 18z runs? Asking for a friend..

The cone is not updated until the 10:00 p.m. advisory. The 4:00 p.m. advisory does not have an updated cone

[GalvestonWXGeek]

The crowds are enormous on Galveston island this weekend. It will be an absolute madhouse here on Sunday with both visitors and residents fleeing (assuming Beryl strikes near-South). Presumably, there will be better guidance tomorrow morning.

[ROCK]

The 7pm advisory they kept the cone pretty much like the 4pm. Do they not update given the 18z runs? Asking for a friend..

Cone is updated at 10 pm CDT

Ah ha…been here since 2005 and still learn something new every year!!

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

So are people expecting an eastward shift in the cone? Putting NOLA in the cone?

[longhorn2004]

Gulf temps are 85 degrees. There is some shear over the Gulf, no doubt the Cold front that is blowing through Texas right now dropping temps by 15 degrees. Also Beryl should be sucking in some dry air to the west of it. Bon Appetit Beryl.

[sphelps8681]

The 7pm advisory they kept the cone pretty much like the 4pm. Do they not update given the 18z runs? Asking for a friend..

Watch they will do it in the dead of night. In the morning we will wake up with this storm is amazing see what happened over night. LOL.

[ROCK]

[quote="MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS"]So are people expecting an eastward shift in the cone? Putting NOLA in the cone?[/quote

Idk about all the way to NOLA but I wouldn’t be surprised if TX LA border got in the cone at some point if these right shifts continue.

[MississippiWx]

So are people expecting an eastward shift in the cone? Putting NOLA in the cone?[/quote

Idk about all the way to NOLA but I wouldn’t be surprised if TX LA border got in the cone at some point if these right shifts continue.

SW Louisiana is already in the cone, and more than just the border.

[TropicalWinds]

I fully expect Beryl’s impact to be much more substantial than is currently projected for those of us here in Southwest Louisiana. I do think the core will make landfall in Texas, but given the trends we’ve seen today, I think it’ll be close enough to the border for us to experience a good bit of wind, rain, possibly even some surge.

[IcyTundra]

I'm hopeful Beryl's intensity will be manageble. Seems like people on twitter are more bearish about Beryl's future intensity.