ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jasons2k]

Come Monday there’s gonna be a lot of surprised folks saying ‘but on Saturday it was just a little tropical storm…’

[abajan]

GFS: TS
EURO: TS
HWRF: Cat1
HAFS-A: Cat 1 (barely)
HAFS-B: Cat1

I know people want to catastrophize this as a potential major at landfall but the model support just isn’t there.

That thing with Beryl is that she is always been stronger than the models show.

Also, for some reason over the last several years hurricanes have had the nasty habit of rapidly intensifying as they approached the US mainland. Mark Sudduth has spoken about this in some of his videos.

[xironman]

Once it works through that dry air to the southeast, the upper low won't be advecting dry air into the center.

[Woofde]

GFS: TS
EURO: TS
HWRF: Cat1
HAFS-A: Cat 1 (barely)
HAFS-B: Cat1

I know people want to catastrophize this as a potential major at landfall but the model support just isn’t there.

The thing is, if Beryl gets even a slight head start it will be off to the races. The environment before landfall will be ridiculously favorable. The question is how fast it can deal with this dry air. If it's slower a strong TS/ Weak Cat 1 seems reasonable. If it manages to mix it out even 6 hours faster than expected, it could easily blow up to a strong Cat 2. Beryl is looking rough right now, but the circulation is still somewhat intact. It's not starting completely from scratch.

[Woofde]

A big tell for the future will be how much it pulses. There's a decent blowup near the center right now. Watch for the dry air to choke this off and for some up and down pulsing while it works to clear it out.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1809563352718291013

[loon]

Looks better each frame, really pushing out the dry air. 12 hours from now should be able to work itself back together. Glad its daytime so we can get better sat views.

[Jonny]

Anything is possible and Beryl could have one last surprise in store.

She’s one that loves to be unpredictable and keep people on their toes.

[Frank P]

Per recon it looks like its puttering along at ~5KT

If indeed it is only moving at 5mph, man that is slow, and the LLC is quite vigorous, with the increased convection, and if she can shunt out the dry air sooner rather than later, it just might not take as long to strengthen as some folks predict. Remember this is Beryl and her past history shows her bad behavior as it relates to intensity. Additionally, not sure if this slow movement was forecast in the models or not, but if not, it certainly could affect both landfall points and intensity forecasts down the road. Yeah I know a lot of ifs! Cheers

[loon]

Dropsone from Recon thread is 999mb.. already dropping from 1001mb.

[Sciencerocks]

[jaguars_22]

I guess here in Victoria I need to plan for what winds?

[Javlin]

Explains movement or the lack of for the most part.

[hipshot]

Per recon it looks like its puttering along at ~5KT

If indeed it is only moving at 5mph, man that is slow, and the LLC is quite vigorous, with the increased convection, and if she can shunt out the dry air sooner rather than later, it just might not take as long to strengthen as some folks predict. Remember this is Beryl and her past history shows her bad behavior as it relates to intensity. Additionally, not sure if this slow movement was forecast in the models or not, but if not, it certainly could affect both landfall points and intensity forecasts down the road. Yeah I know a lot of ifs! Cheers

Also, the slower she goes, the further away the ULL to its west gets and less shear from it and that should help with the restructuring.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Been on vacation so I’m just catching up to the last few days. Beryl took a major hit over the Yucatan, but we’ve seen struggling systems turn into something nasty with limited model support in the Gulf before, especially right before landfall. If it can rebuild its inner core it may take off again; GFS has it dropping 14mb in six hours right before landfall in Texas. I don’t think it has time to become a MH agin, but we will see.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/TreyceJonesWX/status/1809577632008139225

[Teban54]

This was Zeta 2020, as a tropical storm in the GoM after making landfall in Yucatan as a Cat 1: (original comment)


Two hours after this image, a few hot towers started firing off and rotating around the LLC. Soon, Zeta developed a solid core. It eventually intensified rapidly to a major at landfall with baroclinic forcing, while spending much less time in the GoM than Beryl has remaining.

Not saying the same thing will happen to Beryl, as their tracks and surroundings are different. (You can see that Zeta had a much more moist environment to work with.) However, things can and do change quickly in the Gulf, even for storms that don't look like much.

[LSU Saint]

Looking more and more like Matagorda.

[jaguars_22]

Seadrift tx to me! Center may come right over my house. San Antonio bay landfall

[ColdMiser123]

This was Zeta 2020, as a tropical storm in the GoM after making landfall in Yucatan as a Cat 1: (original comment)
https://i.imgur.com/u5ezU25.gif

Two hours after this image, a few hot towers started firing off and rotating around the LLC. Soon, Zeta developed a solid core. It eventually intensified rapidly to a major at landfall with baroclinic forcing, while spending much less time in the GoM than Beryl has remaining.

Not saying the same thing will happen to Beryl, as their tracks and surroundings are different. (You can see that Zeta had a much more moist environment to work with.) However, things can and do change quickly in the Gulf, even for storms that don't look like much.

Zeta is a great analogy - and as others have already mentioned, today is a critical day for Beryl for its final intensity.

Zeta had about half the time over water that Beryl still has, and it was able to still ramp up 45 kt before making its Louisiana landfall.