ATL: BERYL - Models

[USTropics]

ICON, because I can.

https://i.imgur.com/4v1H6YK.png

That ICON sure is determined to stay where it's been.

The ICON has had some wins and some losses so to speak. For instance, it was the only model that correctly forecasted Dorian's reformation and deepening. Maybe it's the proverbial blind squirrel finding the nut, but I would rank it up there with the UKMET.

[aspen]

ICON, because I can.

https://i.imgur.com/4v1H6YK.png

That ICON sure is determined to stay where it's been.

The ICON has had some wins and some losses so to speak. For instance, it was the only model that correctly forecasted Dorian's reformation and deepening. Maybe it's the proverbial blind squirrel finding the nut, but I would rank it up there with the UKMET.

It was also quite insistent on a Texas landfall for Beryl while every other model was throwing it into Mexico, so another win there.

[tolakram]

So port Aransas is out of danger now correct?? Its more San Antonio bay and Matagorda?

Why do you think we know?

[Blinhart]

So port Aransas is out of danger now correct?? Its more San Antonio bay and Matagorda?

Why do you think we know?

Exactly what I was thinking, we won't know final landfall until maybe 12 hours before landfall.

[USTropics]

So port Aransas is out of danger now correct?? Its more San Antonio bay and Matagorda?

The orientation of the coastline and approach angle of Beryl makes the final landfall location tricky. Port Aransas will be safe after Beryl crosses 27.85N (and I believe this area is currently under a hurricane warning as of the latest advisory).

[Steve]

This will be a case study for random early July system in the west gulf. It should be fun to watch the evolution starting tonight but much more so tomorrow night and Monday.

[ronjon]

I think Beryl might be a little stronger than 85 mph forecast by NHC at landfall. The 18z suite of hurricane models all show sub-970 mb storm at landfall and the global 12z Euro was at 979 mb.

[Steve]

Let's get it. I got distracted watching D-Nice, Shelia E, BIg Boi and Method Man streaming on Essence.

Only 00z model out that I can find is the HRRR. LIkes that Matagorda Bay landfall and straight up. Not that strong, but obviously the north, east and south of the system for most of Houston. That's not a model really to watch for the tropics. It's the rapid mesoscale that runs every hour. Still though, that's a party day if you're protected in Houston. You get the top of the storm, then like the east side of it maybe even for a bit of time and then the south or southeast part of the circulation which looks reasonably intact if not a hair above the pressure I think it's going to be. FV-3 next up or the NAMS.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 70700&fh=3

[Steve]

Catching up

Early Cycle Track for 00z is kind of what everyone is thinking.
https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtim ... _early.png

Here's the early cycle intensity. Definitely decreasing intensity across the board. I wouldn't be surprised to see things tick back up tomorrow more into the Cat 1 than TS. Peak for those runs +/- 32 hours. https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtim ... _early.png

[Bimms]

Let's get it. I got distracted watching D-Nice, Shelia E, BIg Boi and Method Man streaming on Essence.

Only 00z model out that I can find is the HRRR. LIkes that Matagorda Bay landfall and straight up. Not that strong, but obviously the north, east and south of the system for most of Houston. That's not a model really to watch for the tropics. It's the rapid mesoscale that runs every hour. Still though, that's a party day if you're protected in Houston. You get the top of the storm, then like the east side of it maybe even for a bit of time and then the south or southeast part of the circulation which looks reasonably intact if not a hair above the pressure I think it's going to be. FV-3 next up or the NAMS.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 70700&fh=3

What does that mean? Are those bad impacts for Houston?

[catskillfire51]

FV3 looks like East Matagorda Bay, 980mb at 31 hours

[Steve]

Let's get it. I got distracted watching D-Nice, Shelia E, BIg Boi and Method Man streaming on Essence.

Only 00z model out that I can find is the HRRR. LIkes that Matagorda Bay landfall and straight up. Not that strong, but obviously the north, east and south of the system for most of Houston. That's not a model really to watch for the tropics. It's the rapid mesoscale that runs every hour. Still though, that's a party day if you're protected in Houston. You get the top of the storm, then like the east side of it maybe even for a bit of time and then the south or southeast part of the circulation which looks reasonably intact if not a hair above the pressure I think it's going to be. FV-3 next up or the NAMS.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 70700&fh=3

What does that mean? Are those bad impacts for Houston?

A lot of continuous action if it was going to verify. So you have the upper semi-circle of the center moves in and then the eastern "eye wall" then part of the SE or the Southern eyewall if it's moving more toward the NNE or NE passing Houston. Push play on it and you can see.

[catskillfire51]

NAM about the same, both show slight strengthening on approach.

[catskillfire51]

NAM 3km conus is what everyone will be talking about though

[Bimms]

Let's get it. I got distracted watching D-Nice, Shelia E, BIg Boi and Method Man streaming on Essence.

Only 00z model out that I can find is the HRRR. LIkes that Matagorda Bay landfall and straight up. Not that strong, but obviously the north, east and south of the system for most of Houston. That's not a model really to watch for the tropics. It's the rapid mesoscale that runs every hour. Still though, that's a party day if you're protected in Houston. You get the top of the storm, then like the east side of it maybe even for a bit of time and then the south or southeast part of the circulation which looks reasonably intact if not a hair above the pressure I think it's going to be. FV-3 next up or the NAMS.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 70700&fh=3

What does that mean? Are those bad impacts for Houston?

A lot of continuous action if it was going to verify. So you have the upper semi-circle of the center moves in and then the eastern "eye wall" then part of the SE or the Southern eyewall if it's moving more toward the NNE or NE passing Houston. Push play on it and you can see.

Thank You!

[Steve]

FV3 looks like East Matagorda Bay, 980mb at 31 hours

It's cheating off of me.

NAM 12k with the weather weighted to the east on the depiction. 988 at landfall east Matagorda Bay-ish
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0700&fh=36

[underthwx]

ICON, because I can.

https://i.imgur.com/4v1H6YK.png

That ICON sure is determined to stay where it's been.

The ICON has had some wins and some losses so to speak. For instance, it was the only model that correctly forecasted Dorian's reformation and deepening. Maybe it's the proverbial blind squirrel finding the nut, but I would rank it up there with the UKMET.

Can you elaborate on the ICON?...what it is showing...is it the go to model for Beryl?....thanks for any info!...

[Steve]

That ICON sure is determined to stay where it's been.

The ICON has had some wins and some losses so to speak. For instance, it was the only model that correctly forecasted Dorian's reformation and deepening. Maybe it's the proverbial blind squirrel finding the nut, but I would rank it up there with the UKMET.

Can you elaborate on the ICON?...what it is showing...is it the go to model for Beryl?....thanks for any info!...

You can run it back. But it was always the model east of about Galveston from between Jamaica and Yucatán. All other models were into Tamaulipas.

[Steve]

For instance. Here is 12z Tuesday July 2nd

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 212&fh=108

Here’s the GFS
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 212&fh=168

Here is the Euro
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 212&fh=210

Here is the CMC
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 212&fh=102

One model stood above.

[ROCK]

I will be definitely considering the ICON the rest of this season for sure...