ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[capNstorms]

beryl is about to go over some 93 octane water, i see some RI in the future

None of the models or pro mets think this.

that's why we are in this forum

[Xyls]

Giving Alicia 1983 vibes.

Why is it giving you Alicia vibes?

Structure of the storm, size of the storm, likely Houston area landfall, probably going to intensify in the last bit before shore, etc...

[rickcorvin]

CAPE now up to 5500.
Super nice feeder band.
She is really drinking the juice this morning.

Can you link to your source for CAPE? You are seeing numbers much higher than the global models. Perhaps a satellite derived product? It sounds like you are referencing real time estimates.

[GCANE]

May get a second feeder band coming offshore Mexico.
4000 CAPE air rotating in from the SW of Beryl's CoC

[tolakram]

saved loop

[cycloneye]

Houston long range radar. The east side of the center is filling.

[GCANE]

CAPE now up to 5500.
Super nice feeder band.
She is really drinking the juice this morning.

Can you link to your source for CAPE? You are seeing numbers much higher than the global models. Perhaps a satellite derived product? It sounds like you are referencing real time estimates.

SPC
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanal ... sector=15#

& COD
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=r ... =undefined

[BobHarlem]

beryl is about to go over some 93 octane water, i see some RI in the future

None of the models or pro mets think this.

that's why we are in this forum

Ri chance is about 36% max more like 21% averaged out. If it did it would be tonight right before landfall.

See https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ai-ri/

[ROCK]

This is Humberto 2.0. Once the land friction kicks in it will fill in even more .definitely stacked now.

[jaguars_22]

Man she isn’t wobbling much to the north! She needs to turn soon… gfs shifted a little west again. Is she expected to make a drastic turn to north?

[GCANE]

6000 CAPE

[Charleswachal]

This is Humberto 2.0. Once the land friction kicks in it will fill in even more .definitely stacked now.

I have seen this many times but is there actually a studied phenomenon that causes this? And if so, do you happen to have any links that show the studying of it

[Tailgater33]

CAPE now up to 5500.
Super nice feeder band.
She is really drinking the juice this morning.

Can you link to your source for CAPE? You are seeing numbers much higher than the global models. Perhaps a satellite derived product? It sounds like you are referencing real time estimates.

SPC
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanal ... sector=15#

& COD
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=r ... =undefined

Love me some Dupage and thanks for your input. I like that you’ll give us positive and negative views of what you are seeing.

[rockice]

Definitely don't think they are done with their track yet,RECON data suggests Beryl is slowing down hmmm?

[capNstorms]

 https://x.com/mattlanza/status/1809240462592512402



Pro mets in Houston are very confident that Beryl isn't much of a risk to Galveston. Let's hope they are right.

"Pro mets in Houston are very confident that Beryl isn't much of a risk to Galveston"

oh have the tables have turned

[HoustonFrog]

 https://x.com/mattlanza/status/1809240462592512402



Pro mets in Houston are very confident that Beryl isn't much of a risk to Galveston. Let's hope they are right.

"Pro mets in Houston are very confident that Beryl isn't much of a risk to Galveston"

oh have the tables have turned

SCW screwed up bad. About four days ago they said it may results in some rain and wrote it off. Even yesterday said impacts manageable and now this morning saying significant impacts with likely heavy power outages.

Big whiff

[ATCcane]

Definitely don't think they are done with their track yet,RECON data suggests Beryl is slowing down hmmm?

Might be slowing down but what recon is showing may be a function of the storm organizing itself better.

[capNstorms]

None of the models or pro mets think this.

that's why we are in this forum

Ri chance is about 36% max more like 21% averaged out. If it did it would be tonight right before landfall.

See https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ai-ri/

pretty cool data from there. I also remember a few models lowering pressure for beryl even over land, I wonder if that might happen here if it makes an attempt to ramp up before landfall, with the poleward shift this morning, it gives beryl more time over HOT JUICY WATERS

[GCANE]

Tracking straight north now

[capNstorms]

Man she isn’t wobbling much to the north! She needs to turn soon… gfs shifted a little west again. Is she expected to make a drastic turn to north?

what are you watching? its heading almost due north