ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[South Texas Storms]

Looks like landfall is about 6 hours away. Should be a Category 1 hurricane by then likely just east of Matagorda Bay. Going to be a rough night/morning for much of southeast TX. Stay safe everyone!

[sphelps8681]

Looks like landfall is about 6 hours away. Should be a Category 1 hurricane by then likely just east of Matagorda Bay. Going to be a rough night/morning for much of southeast TX. Stay safe everyone!

Hope my power does not got out but will hook up my generator if that happens. I hate the storms at night. They really suck. Thanks for everything you do.

[copano]

I'm thinking halfway between Sargent and Freeport/Lake Jackson.

That's a pretty big shift at this point

Not really that location is still in the cone as of 10 PM.

True, but pretty far east on the cone, however the track has shifted a mile east of Matagorda ship channel to the eastern side of Matagorda Island so I won't dismiss that projection.

[Tireman4]

Looks like landfall is about 6 hours away. Should be a Category 1 hurricane by then likely just east of Matagorda Bay. Going to be a rough night/morning for much of southeast TX. Stay safe everyone!

Stay safe Mr. Storms as you live near me. Lol

[Steve]

Big circulation and windfield still. North of circulation looks to be worst for now.

[Tireman4]

One last note, my generator is coming September 26th. So glad we are getting one. Does not help me now, but hey .lol..

[ConvergenceZone]

Looks like landfall is about 6 hours away. Should be a Category 1 hurricane by then likely just east of Matagorda Bay. Going to be a rough night/morning for much of southeast TX. Stay safe everyone!

This is going to be a nice change of pace. Usually when storms are in the gulf they end up being stronger than forecast(much of the time), not weaker, but perhaps if this was August or September, this would have have been the case. Incredibly grateful for it though. I heard one Met mentioning that in his opinion, had this went through the channel and remained a hurricane, we would have potentially been talking about a cat 4 storm. What a difference, and in this case blessing a few hundred miles makes. We REALLY lucked out here.

[jabman98]

As Beryl is making her approach to the middle Texas coast, I will readily admit, I loathe night/ early morning land falling hurricanes.

Me too! Hard to sleep and you can't see what's going on. Stressful.

Stay safe, everyone!

[cheezyWXguy]

Man, stepped away for a while again, surprised to find that radar-wise it doesn’t look a whole lot different. Velocities have certainly jumped up though, lots of 70-80mph bins on the north side now. Was confident this morning Beryl would manage 100mph or so at landfall, but with the repeated failed attempts to close off the eyewall, I’d say 85mph looks like the ceiling now.

Edit to add: Still shouldn’t be taken lightly though, gonna be a rough morning in Houston. Wouldn’t even think about trying to drive in this thing

[jabman98]

If this was August or September, this city would have been in full panic, last minute, evacuation mode.

Yep. Although some people still remember the Rita evac disaster.

I always love seeing your avatar. lol

[cheezyWXguy]

Although it’s struggling to consolidate, I’d guess this is a hurricane now. 80-90mph velocities in the NE quad on Houston radar now. Let’s see if recon is seeing any pressure drops

[capNstorms]

This is going to be a massive flood event... Landfall will get brunt wind damage and massive storm surge, but the Billions in damage will be from the flooding

[Ptarmigan]

Hurricane Warning issued.
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwa ... %20warning

Code: Select all

Beryl Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 38
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX  AL022024
1005 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

TXZ236-081115-
/O.CON.KHGX.HU.W.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Inland Matagorda-
1005 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Bay City
    - Blessing
    - Van Vleck

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 30-40 mph with gusts to 70 mph

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 58
      to 73 mph
        - The wind threat has decreased from the previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical
          storm force.
        - PREPARE: Last minute efforts to protect life and property
          should now be complete. The area remains subject to
          significant wind damage.
        - ACT: Now is the time to shelter from dangerous wind.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Unfolding
        - Potential impacts from the main wind event are unfolding.

* FLOODING RAIN
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flood Watch is in effect
        - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 4-8 inches, with locally
          higher amounts

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for major
      flooding rain
        - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
          the previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
          major flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are
          likely.
        - PREPARE: Strongly consider protective actions, especially
          if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding.
        - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
          action will likely result in serious injury or loss of life.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
        - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and
          rescues.
        - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
          multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches
          may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and
          barriers may become stressed.
        - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
          communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or
          washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover
          escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of
          moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions
          become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some
          weakened or washed out.

* TORNADO
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Situation is favorable for tornadoes

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for several
      tornadoes
        - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should continue to include the
          potential for several tornadoes.
        - PREPARE: Stay within your shelter keeping informed of the
          latest tornado situation.
        - ACT: Move quickly to the safest place within your shelter
          if a tornado warning is issued.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
        - The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the
          execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
        - Several places may experience tornado damage with a few
          spots of considerable damage, power loss, and
          communications failures.
        - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
          homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped
          or uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed
          about. Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
    - Hurricane Preparedness: Federal Emergency Management Agency
        - http://ready.gov/hurricanes
    - Local weather conditions and forecasts: NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
        - http://www.weather.gov/hgx/

$$

[SoupBone]

Hurricane Warning issued.
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwa ... %20warning

Code: Select all

Beryl Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 38
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX  AL022024
1005 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

TXZ236-081115-
/O.CON.KHGX.HU.W.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Inland Matagorda-
1005 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Bay City
    - Blessing
    - Van Vleck

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 30-40 mph with gusts to 70 mph

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 58
      to 73 mph
        - The wind threat has decreased from the previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical
          storm force.
        - PREPARE: Last minute efforts to protect life and property
          should now be complete. The area remains subject to
          significant wind damage.
        - ACT: Now is the time to shelter from dangerous wind.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Unfolding
        - Potential impacts from the main wind event are unfolding.

* FLOODING RAIN
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flood Watch is in effect
        - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 4-8 inches, with locally
          higher amounts

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for major
      flooding rain
        - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
          the previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
          major flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are
          likely.
        - PREPARE: Strongly consider protective actions, especially
          if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding.
        - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
          action will likely result in serious injury or loss of life.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
        - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and
          rescues.
        - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
          multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches
          may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and
          barriers may become stressed.
        - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
          communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or
          washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover
          escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of
          moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions
          become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some
          weakened or washed out.

* TORNADO
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Situation is favorable for tornadoes

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for several
      tornadoes
        - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should continue to include the
          potential for several tornadoes.
        - PREPARE: Stay within your shelter keeping informed of the
          latest tornado situation.
        - ACT: Move quickly to the safest place within your shelter
          if a tornado warning is issued.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
        - The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the
          execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
        - Several places may experience tornado damage with a few
          spots of considerable damage, power loss, and
          communications failures.
        - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
          homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped
          or uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed
          about. Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
    - Hurricane Preparedness: Federal Emergency Management Agency
        - http://ready.gov/hurricanes
    - Local weather conditions and forecasts: NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
        - http://www.weather.gov/hgx/

$$

Wind threat has decreased? I'm tired, what am I missing here?

Nevermind, I see it's Bay City

[SecondBreakfast]

Getting very windy. Will be interesting to watch the surge from his location. High tide is a little after sunrise…

https://x.com/icyclone/status/181015869 ... wl1m0Dnbtg

[copano]

One last note, my generator is coming September 26th. So glad we are getting one. Does not help me now, but hey .lol..

TWIA insurance paid for my generator after Harvey if that gives you comfort lol.

[KirbyDude25]

000
WTNT62 KNHC 080358
TCUAT2

Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...BERYL IS AGAIN A HURRICANE...

Data from the National Weather Service Doppler radar near Houston,
Texas, and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that Beryl's maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h). Based on these data, Beryl is
upgraded to a hurricane. Additional strengthening is expected
before landfall on the Texas coast.

NOAA buoy 42019 recently reported sustained winds of 60 mph
(97 km/h) and a wind gust of 74 mph (119 km/h). The buoy also
reported a pressure of 992.2 mb (29.30 inches).

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM CDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 95.7W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven

[CrazyC83]

There must be strong radar echoes somewhere, since the Recon data didn't quite support hurricane intensity.

[chaser1]

This is going to be a massive flood event... Landfall will get brunt wind damage and massive storm surge, but the Billions in damage will be from the flooding

"Billions"? I admit that I am not at all intimately familiar with the region but assuming Beryl's track verifies and the storm does not stall out, will 4"-6" of precip over a fairly broad area actually result in BILLIONS of $$ in damage there?

[ROCK]

This is going to be a massive flood event... Landfall will get brunt wind damage and massive storm surge, but the Billions in damage will be from the flooding

"Billions"? I admit that I am not at all intimately familiar with the region but assuming Beryl's track verifies and the storm does not stall out, will 4"-6" of precip over a fairly broad area actually result in BILLIONS of $$ in damage there?

Man inflation…you know how much a loaf a bread costs now..lol