2024 EPAC Season

[Hurricane2022]

1914, here we go!

[cycloneye]

1914, here we go!

You go that far to have zero named storms?

[cycloneye]

EPAC has a lemon. How strong it gets if it forms is the question.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jul 11 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Central East Pacific:
A tropical wave located near Central America is forecast to move
westward at 10 to 15 mph across the tropical East Pacific during
the next week. Conditions could become favorable for some slow
development of the wave next week as it approaches the central
portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster D. Zelinsky

[Hurricane2022]

1914, here we go!

You go that far to have zero named storms?

[cycloneye]

1914, here we go!

You go that far to have zero named storms?

At least Aletta formed, but with only 0.2 ACE.

[Teban54]

You go that far to have zero named storms?

At least Aletta formed, but with only 0.2 ACE.

For 2024 EPAC to tie 1914 ATL in storm counts, it still needs zero named storms from now onwards. So that's still a call for zero

[cycloneye]

Not a good sign for this basin when you have a downward percent less than 24 hours from the first NHC mention. It was at 20%.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jul 12 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Central East Pacific:
A tropical wave over the far eastern Pacific is producing
disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. The wave is expected
to move westward or west-northwestward at 15 mph during the next
few days. Environmental conditions are forecast to only be
marginally conducive and development, if any, should be slow to
occur when the wave moves into the central portion of the basin
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.


Forecaster Brown

[Kingarabian]

GFS considerably less bullish but the Euro and CMC show a very active MT setting up in the EPAC with 3-4 lows embedded.

[HurricaneRyan]

Damn. And this is with the Atlantic going dormant again for a bit.

[toad strangler]

[cycloneye]

EPAC better wake up soon, or will go to the record historic books.

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1812145466747793435

[Yellow Evan]

Upper environment appears favorable so not sure why guidance the past 3-4 days has been so bearish. I expect overperformance.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Jul 14 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a large
but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions could become more conducive for some development in a
day or two while it moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph across the central and western portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.


Forecaster Blake

[Kingarabian]

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jul 15 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce a
large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for development in the next couple of days and a
tropical depression could form mid- to late-week as the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central and western
portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


Forecaster Kelly

[Hurricane2022]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jul 15 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce a
large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for development in the next couple of days and a
tropical depression could form mid- to late-week as the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central and western
portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


Forecaster Kelly

Nooooo my 1914 prediction is already busting

[Kingarabian]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jul 15 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce a
large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for development in the next couple of days and a
tropical depression could form mid- to late-week as the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central and western
portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


Forecaster Kelly

Nooooo my 1914 prediction is already busting

There's still a chance.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I vote that we move all season cancel posts to this thread (seems more appropriate)

[Kingarabian]

All the global models show 3-5 areas of vigorous vorticity across the EPAC. Nothing able to close off and get going. Maybe something off of Mexico in 10 days.

[cycloneye]

Invest 92E is up.