Possible development in the Western Atlantic / GOM (Is Invest 97L)

[Spacecoast]

CMC, Euro, & UK show genesis probability of 51% near SFL....

[Frank P]

I don't ever recall tracking an uglier wave for as long as I have been tracking on this system...

[boca]

Tracking this system is like waiting on an afternoon thunderstorm that never materializes.

[wxman57]

The real feature is the very large wave just behind the one the NHC mentions. It will be overtaking the first wave and adding its energy to the mix. Neither has much convection now, but that should change near the Bahamas or in the eastern Gulf on Saturday. I think NHC will be bumping chances up to 70-80% by Wednesday, with development just beyond 48 hours by then. I'm thinking that chances are as high as 90% by this weekend. Another working weekend for me. We already have clients requesting conference calls.

[lsuhurricane]

12z GFS continues to keep this strung out and finally consolidates a vort near the FL/AL coastline. Does have some ensemble support for that...so who knows

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET: still has a TD though not as strong as the 0Z’s TS that had skimmed the SE FL coast at Palm Beach. The new run delays TCG til it is 50 miles NE of Cape Canaveral. It then moves NE to 150 miles E of Amelia Island, FL:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 29.0N 80.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.08.2024 156 29.0N 80.1W 1008 31
1200UTC 05.08.2024 168 30.6N 79.0W 1008 34

[Stratton23]

Big difference in models, GFS has more of a blocking pattern and cuts off the weakness to its north, not allowing for an escape path up the east coast or out to sea

[BobHarlem]

Interesting how the 12z gfs just stalls it offshore of MS/LA for like most of next week (Monday night-Friday)

[LarryWx]

12Z CMC is further E and much weaker with just a weak low over SE FL/NW Bahamas. But then it gets stronger as it moves NE offshore NC and becomes a TS moving further OTS.

[toad strangler]

12z Euro weakish 1008mb and comes close to the FL peninsula before moving N into SC and seems to stall just inland.... hardly moving 192 hours through to end at 240.

[SFLcane]

[jlauderdal]

https://i.postimg.cc/13vPKLx8/hhh.png

No sweat, clean side of the storm. If the EPS weren't trending offshore I would be on orange alert.

[BobHarlem]

That stall on both models (GFS around MS/LA and Euro with the South Carolina low country, even though it goes to different spots) is concerning for flooding.

[toad strangler]

12z UKMET landfalls a depression probably in Broward / Palm Beach County area at 138 hours and exits up by Cape Canaveral just after 150 hours heading NNE towards Hatteras.

[Stratton23]

BobHarlem yep, once that shortwave leaves the picture, the system could get trapped by ridging until the next trough swings by , if that occurs in the gulf or off the se coast remains to be seen, but definitely concerning seeing that, we know all too well about stalling systems in texas, that would be bad for the se US coast

[SFLcane]

https://i.postimg.cc/13vPKLx8/hhh.png

No sweat, clean side of the storm. If the EPS weren't trending offshore I would be on orange alert.

No coherent disturbance so we wait. Not looking for a major here which is surely not required for some impacts.

[Blown Away]

12z Euro slight trend W near FL. Marginal TS just off the coast moving towards Carolinas…

[jlauderdal]

12z UKMET landfalls a depression probably in Broward / Palm Beach County area at 138 hours and exits up by Cape Canaveral just after 150 hours heading NNE towards Hatteras.

We will take that as long as it keeps moving, we have had three big rain events in 16 months, no sympathy from Houston in the department to be sure, they have been pounded for a few years.

[ConvergenceZone]

The real feature is the very large wave just behind the one the NHC mentions. It will be overtaking the first wave and adding its energy to the mix. Neither has much convection now, but that should change near the Bahamas or in the eastern Gulf on Saturday. I think NHC will be bumping chances up to 70-80% by Wednesday, with development just beyond 48 hours by then. I'm thinking that chances are as high as 90% by this weekend. Another working weekend for me. We already have clients requesting conference calls.

Wait, wxman is actually bullish on the formation of a storm? What just happened? Doesn't look like it will be much of a storm though if the models are to be trusted.

[Stratton23]

Yeah the GFS/ Euro both have a pattern that could lead to a stall for multiple days , definitely worth monitoring