Possible development in the Western Atlantic / GOM (Is Invest 97L)

[3090]

At some point there is definitely going to be a breakdown in the steering and whatever exists will be looping back to the west as high pressure builds back in. The big question will be where is it when it stalls and where does it loop back to the west?

[toad strangler]

6z GFS Ensembles are spread pretty evenly from NE GOM / FL / GA / SC / OFF SE COAST

[Blown Away]

NHC 2am is basically over PR and much of the deeper convection with a hint of rotation, probably mid level, is to the N. If this AOI consolidates even 100 miles N of PR/Hispaniola and current NHC track, it may develop quicker and turn pretty much into Florida. I still wouldn't rule out E of Florida if it develops quickly... JMHO

[N2FSU]

6z GFS Ensembles are spread pretty evenly from NE GOM / FL / GA / SC / OFF SE COAST

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[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1818971497639063867

[GCANE]

Interesting the 500mb vort is currently south of PR.
This could stay south of the Antilles all together and enter the GoM well structured.

[3090]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/LXzcCyny/goes16-ir-watl-6.gif [/url]
[url]https://i.postimg.cc/SsrZYHXp/NHC-2am.jpg [/url]

NHC 2am is basically over PR and much of the deeper convection with a hint of rotation, probably mid level, is to the N. If this AOI consolidates even 100 miles N of PR/Hispaniola and current NHC track, it may develop quicker and turn pretty much into Florida. I still wouldn't rule out E of Florida if it develops quickly... JMHO

I do not see the ML rotation at all N of PR. I think it is pretty evident it is to the south and off the west end of PR at this time. We shall see.

[HurricaneBelle]

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1818971497639063867?s=46

Remember Elena quite well, I was at the University of Florida at the time and during the week it was supposed to come into the Gulf and landfall along MS/AL. On the Friday drove home to the Tampa Bay area for Labor Day weekend with a friend and we hit a pretty good storm along the way on I-75 and joked that maybe Elena made a right turn and was coming our way, and then as soon as we got home it was on the news that Elena had indeed made an unexpected right turn toward the FL west coast and we were under watches/warnings. Then we watched it essentially stall for 48 hours off the coast. Ironically when it started moving again it ended up right where it was originally forecast after a 3-day detour.

[3090]

A center of whatever exist is clearly evident on San Juan radar. There is nothing of a rotation whatsoever north of Puerto Rico. And the rotation is over open water. Should be an interesting day.

[GCANE]

GFS is not correctly initializing the 500mb vort correctly.
CIMSS shows a closed tight structure with associated convection.
GFS has it as an open-wave structure.
One thing of note is that once this gets in the east GoM a well-defined anti-cyclone will phase with this.

[gulf701]

National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
629 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2024

...Interests across our region should monitor the progress of a
tropical wave near Puerto Rico that could develop into a tropical
depression over the eastern Gulf this weekend or early next
week...

Tallahassee has a good analysis about the subject in their AM discussion.

[cycloneye]

Now that is at 20% in two days, there is a great chance that it will be invest 97L very soon.

[chaser1]

Boy, tough call on position. Broadly speaking, I'd paint an X around the Mona Passage. Biggest pressure falls over the past 24 hr.'s have been around and just north of the Passage. On the other hand I also see what appears to be some vorticity max southwest of Ponce around 16N. Seems as if the trough axis has a NNW/SSE tilt. Will be very interesting to watch the entire feature become bisected by Hispaniola and consolidation could well begin to occur either side of the Island. I'm leaning south side but a north side development would certainly hasten PTC advisories for S. Florida. Looks like NHC just bumped up to 20% for near term; given the increase in convection along with the possibility of a COC attempting to form north or south of the Greater Antilles I might have thought that number might had been a little higher. With the increased model support I'm thinking 30/70 at 2:00pm.

[toad strangler]

NHC update has this disturbance tagged right at 70W over Hispaniola and looks to take it right down the spine of the rest of the GA's.

[cycloneye]

Hey folks. We got it!!!!

INVEST 97L