ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TallyTracker]

I’m gonna top off my car gas tanks and get my non-perishables tonight. By tomorrow, I suspect people are gonna start rushing the shelves for stuff if it’s still coming this way.

[Blown Away]

Seems to be some slight turning @20.5N/70.5W? I'm suspect the developing LLC is tracking down the Hispaniola Spine...

[cycloneye]

If it stalls over this bathtube of very warm waters, yikes.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Not only that, but the loop current is right there too, so it would not be suffering any upwelling if it stalls anywhere near there

[chaser1]

https://i.postimg.cc/nzhd119m/c35572b6- ... 6548bb.gif

Seems to be some slight turning @20.5N/70.5W?[/quote]

Possibly? Like a slow closing off of the northern side of the broad Invest center over E. Dominican Republic? How many times have we seen that happen! That would change the game yet again

[ElectricStorm]

Feels like it depends where it ends up stalling out (assuming it does). If it goes more east over FL it might just be a TD/weak TS (but a huge flood threat if it stalls). But if it stalls over the gulf it could be a powerful hurricane.

Yeah not a fan of this one... At least it'll have to wait until after Cuba to get going

[Stormlover70]

Currently, it's just a wave of low pressure we're tracking. There is no "center". Models have come into better agreement that it will develop into a tropical storm west of Tampa in the eastern Gulf by Sunday afternoon. Looks like it may move inland just about where Idalia did last year Sunday night. It won't have a lot of time to organize, so it may not make it to hurricane intensity. However, we know that storms can strengthen very quickly under an ideal environment, so never say never. I don't see how one could say it will become a Cat 1 hurricane and not a Cat 2 or Cat 3. If something can become a hurricane, it can very quickly become a Cat 1 or 2. Looks like no weekend for me. We'll start advisories around this time tomorrow. I think NHC will follow suit tomorrow afternoon with PTC advisories. No depression until Sunday morning at the earliest.

what can we expect in new port richey being on the dirty side? Thanks in advance.

[GCANE]

Large area of 6000 CAPE mid to east GOM.
This and a forecasted large anticyclone in the east GoM when the system is in the GoM, I would say the models are underestimating development.

[SFLcane]

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Very high alert for this one. It's August (in a season that somehow already has managed to produce a Cat 5), moving into low shear and high moisture environment with a potential stall.

[aspen]

Large area of 6000 CAPE mid to east GOM.
This and a forecasted large anticyclone in the east GoM when the system is in the GoM, I would say the models are underestimating development.

It depends if it stalls in the eastern GoM, because the GFS and some other global runs have shown it quickly crossing the Florida peninsula and stalling over the Gulf Stream just off the SEUS coast. Decent chance of a hurricane stalling very close to land, but it’s hard to tell which side of Florida it’ll be.

[TomballEd]

With ample convection N of Hispaniola, the low level max analyzed by CIMMS over the mountainous terrain of the DR, and the mid level max vorticity SE of the DR, S of the Mona Channel, it is too early to declare which model is most likely to verify. I'd exclude the clear outliers of the GFS and Euro ensembles, and anyplace else the ensembles show as a possible landfall. Predicting strength before the system is clear over water, which depends on where the dominant center forms, is foolish, so predicting intensity either side of Florida is not prudent.

[cycloneye]

Very high alert for this one. It's August (in a season that somehow already has managed to produce a Cat 5), moving into low shear and high moisture environment with a potential stall.

Also will move to very warm waters in EGOM and if it gets to gulfstream.

[wxman57]

Currently, it's just a wave of low pressure we're tracking. There is no "center". Models have come into better agreement that it will develop into a tropical storm west of Tampa in the eastern Gulf by Sunday afternoon. Looks like it may move inland just about where Idalia did last year Sunday night. It won't have a lot of time to organize, so it may not make it to hurricane intensity. However, we know that storms can strengthen very quickly under an ideal environment, so never say never. I don't see how one could say it will become a Cat 1 hurricane and not a Cat 2 or Cat 3. If something can become a hurricane, it can very quickly become a Cat 1 or 2. Looks like no weekend for me. We'll start advisories around this time tomorrow. I think NHC will follow suit tomorrow afternoon with PTC advisories. No depression until Sunday morning at the earliest.

I don’t think NHC would start advisories that early. Probably not until Saturday when the 48hr chances are near 70%. Right now it’s only at 20/60 and likely to be 70/90 by Saturday at some point.

Looks like it may be a TS west of Tampa by 15Z Sunday, already producing TS wind not far offshore. That means 48 hour before then is 15z tomorrow. They will start PTC advisories tomorrow. Should be at 15Z tomorrow, but they may wait until 21Z.

[toad strangler]

Strengthening storms moving generally N along the W FL coast and strengthening have had a history of bending inland prematurely. I'm not insinuating anything. Just overly cautious. Will be interesting to see how quickly or not so quickly this wraps up after shedding the last of the big islands.

[wxman57]

Currently, it's just a wave of low pressure we're tracking. There is no "center". Models have come into better agreement that it will develop into a tropical storm west of Tampa in the eastern Gulf by Sunday afternoon. Looks like it may move inland just about where Idalia did last year Sunday night. It won't have a lot of time to organize, so it may not make it to hurricane intensity. However, we know that storms can strengthen very quickly under an ideal environment, so never say never. I don't see how one could say it will become a Cat 1 hurricane and not a Cat 2 or Cat 3. If something can become a hurricane, it can very quickly become a Cat 1 or 2. Looks like no weekend for me. We'll start advisories around this time tomorrow. I think NHC will follow suit tomorrow afternoon with PTC advisories. No depression until Sunday morning at the earliest.

what can we expect in new port richey being on the dirty side? Thanks in advance.

Currently, I have the sustained 39mph wind passing just to your west late Sunday morning. You'd see 25-35 mph sustained with gusts 40-50 mph and tides maybe 3-5 ft above normal. As a caveat, predicting wind structure on a disturbance predicted to become a TS is not an exact science. That, combined with the track uncertainty, leaves a good range of uncertainty as far as your winds.

[TampaWxLurker]

Long-time lurker (15+ years!), first-time poster.

Finally signed-up to say this storm, with its current location, trajectory and modelling with the expected stall remind this old-timer of Hurricane Elena '85. I hope I'm wrong.

[beachnut]

Strengthening storms moving generally N along the W FL coast and strengthening have had a history of bending inland prematurely. I'm not insinuating anything. Just overly cautious. Will be interesting to see how quickly or not so quickly this wraps up after shedding the last of the big islands.

Yep, like Charley and Ian!

[HurricaneBelle]

Strengthening storms moving generally N along the W FL coast and strengthening have had a history of bending inland prematurely. I'm not insinuating anything. Just overly cautious. Will be interesting to see how quickly or not so quickly this wraps up after shedding the last of the big islands.

Yep, like Charley and Ian!

On the other hand everyone was convinced Idalia was going to do likewise last year and she didn't. Every synoptic situation is different.

[chaser1]

Well, taking my last look at this system until later this evening and the only nuanced observation are the few arc clouds ejecting from some of the north side convection. That along with its persistent west forward motion and cut-off surface convergence from the south, I find myself leaning toward the southern vort max to eventually become the catalyst for organization. Whether this occurs at a latitude just south of Cuba or after traversing Cuba might too have ramifications reflecting how strong it might become in the GOM and timing of downstream track.