2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/MatthewCappucci/status/1819428423879610621

[jlauderdal]

 https://x.com/MatthewCappucci/status/1819428423879610621

Are we in for another scenario in which no model can be trusted?

[StPeteMike]

Euro and Canadian have both been showing something as well, definitely weaker than the GFS.

Either GFS is catching on and trying to make up for failing to forecast potential Debby while everyone else seemed to be or this is a phantom

The last runs of some of the models have been showing a strong wave with already a llc imbedded coming off Africa around the 15th-17th. If this one doesn’t result into anything, I believe that wave will be the next for us to all watch.

[Stratton23]

Uh oh i see the switch beginning to light up on the Euro, one tropical wave after another getting spit out of of africa, with one wave headed toward the caribbean

[jlauderdal]

Uh oh i see the switch beginning to light up on the Euro, one tropical wave after another getting spit out of of africa, with one wave headed toward the caribbean

Looking favorable as expected in mid august.

[SFLcane]

Conditions look very favorable but i do not see any strong signal just yet on the models id say another 2 1/2 weeks before things really go.

[IcyTundra]

Conditions look very favorable but i do not see any strong signal just yet on the models id say another 2 1/2 weeks before things really go.

August 20th is always a good bet for when activity will start to pick up. I wouldn't be surprised if we get Ernesto just before the 20th though.

[Stratton23]

GFS is showing another developing tropical wave in about 6 days in the western caribbean, interesting to see if the NHC tags that one, the wave is approaching the antilles islands

[BobHarlem]

18z GFS still showing the wave getting into the Gulf as a hurricane.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Yall must be distracted with PTC4 if there’s not a single post here about 988mb storm the 6z gfs shoves into corpus in the midrange

10 days out, only one run shows it. Nothing to talk about.

Taking this more seriously now, multiple runs of the GFS tells me it's a real signal. Will be interesting if the CMC/Euro pick up on it.

[Steve]

18z GFS still showing the wave getting into the Gulf as a hurricane.

Got it down to 960s and apparently heading toward SE or SC LA and deepening. As I told hipshot in 4 thread, the BOMM has MJO in Phase 3 on the 18th and moving back to the circle. It drops into 2 on the 13tg. Expect a deepening system at landfall if this is close

[Steve]

Peak looks to be 954mb

[BobHarlem]

Major hurricane landfall on SE Louisiana with that wave on the 18z GFS and goes right over New Orleans.

[jlauderdal]

Yall must be distracted with PTC4 if there’s not a single post here about 988mb storm the 6z gfs shoves into corpus in the midrange

10 days out, only one run shows it. Nothing to talk about.

Taking this more seriously now, multiple runs of the GFS tells me it's a real signal. Will be interesting if the CMC/Euro pick up on it.

Brownsville to New Foundland this far out, peak season is looking busy and its close in activity.

[Category5Kaiju]

10 days out, only one run shows it. Nothing to talk about.

Taking this more seriously now, multiple runs of the GFS tells me it's a real signal. Will be interesting if the CMC/Euro pick up on it.

Brownsville to New Foundland this far out, peak season is looking busy and its close in activity.

1933 vibes where multiple strong hurricanes target different areas across the Atlantic

[Steve]

Taking this more seriously now, multiple runs of the GFS tells me it's a real signal. Will be interesting if the CMC/Euro pick up on it.

Brownsville to New Foundland this far out, peak season is looking busy and its close in activity.

1933 vibes where multiple strong hurricanes target different areas across the Atlantic

Yeah but let’s fn hope not. City had some issues with Zeta and Ida and Gustav among others, but this would be the worst since Katrina for New Orleans. Luckily my apartment there is on the 4th floor of an old industrial building that’s been around 120 years

[Category5Kaiju]

Brownsville to New Foundland this far out, peak season is looking busy and its close in activity.

1933 vibes where multiple strong hurricanes target different areas across the Atlantic

Yeah but let’s fn hope not. City had some issues with Zeta and Ida and Gustav among others, but this would be the worst since Katrina for New Orleans.

Oh yeah, don't get me wrong I'm not laughing because its funny I'm laughing out of sheer nervousness. If it's not even August 20 yet and we end up getting multiple hurricanes making impacts across various coastal regions along the Atlantic, then I can't imagine what the final monetary damages and deaths will be once this season is over.

[Steve]

I knew you weren’t actively joking. I threw you a like. I feel the same way. Any year that has crazy analogs like 24 did is bound to be trouble.

[Nimbus]

Peak looks to be 954mb

May be invest worthy soon, ridging patterns can change this far out though.

[Hurricane Mike]

For the threat of a more serious hurricane event, I would be more concerned with the wave in the Central Atlantic.