2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Are we in for another scenario in which no model can be trusted?
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- StPeteMike
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Euro and Canadian have both been showing something as well, definitely weaker than the GFS.
Either GFS is catching on and trying to make up for failing to forecast potential Debby while everyone else seemed to be or this is a phantom
The last runs of some of the models have been showing a strong wave with already a llc imbedded coming off Africa around the 15th-17th. If this one doesn’t result into anything, I believe that wave will be the next for us to all watch.
Either GFS is catching on and trying to make up for failing to forecast potential Debby while everyone else seemed to be or this is a phantom
The last runs of some of the models have been showing a strong wave with already a llc imbedded coming off Africa around the 15th-17th. If this one doesn’t result into anything, I believe that wave will be the next for us to all watch.
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Uh oh i see the switch beginning to light up on the Euro, one tropical wave after another getting spit out of of africa, with one wave headed toward the caribbean
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Re: RE: Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Looking favorable as expected in mid august.Stratton23 wrote:Uh oh i see the switch beginning to light up on the Euro, one tropical wave after another getting spit out of of africa, with one wave headed toward the caribbean
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- SFLcane
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Conditions look very favorable but i do not see any strong signal just yet on the models id say another 2 1/2 weeks before things really go.
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
SFLcane wrote:Conditions look very favorable but i do not see any strong signal just yet on the models id say another 2 1/2 weeks before things really go.
August 20th is always a good bet for when activity will start to pick up. I wouldn't be surprised if we get Ernesto just before the 20th though.
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
GFS is showing another developing tropical wave in about 6 days in the western caribbean, interesting to see if the NHC tags that one, the wave is approaching the antilles islands
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
18z GFS still showing the wave getting into the Gulf as a hurricane.


Last edited by BobHarlem on Fri Aug 02, 2024 5:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:cheezyWXguy wrote:Yall must be distracted with PTC4 if there’s not a single post here about 988mb storm the 6z gfs shoves into corpus in the midrange
10 days out, only one run shows it. Nothing to talk about.
Taking this more seriously now, multiple runs of the GFS tells me it's a real signal. Will be interesting if the CMC/Euro pick up on it.
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
BobHarlem wrote:18z GFS still showing the wave getting into the Gulf as a hurricane.
Got it down to 960s and apparently heading toward SE or SC LA and deepening. As I told hipshot in 4 thread, the BOMM has MJO in Phase 3 on the 18th and moving back to the circle. It drops into 2 on the 13tg. Expect a deepening system at landfall if this is close
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Major hurricane landfall on SE Louisiana with that wave on the 18z GFS and goes right over New Orleans.


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Re: RE: Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Brownsville to New Foundland this far out, peak season is looking busy and its close in activity.Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Hypercane_Kyle wrote:cheezyWXguy wrote:Yall must be distracted with PTC4 if there’s not a single post here about 988mb storm the 6z gfs shoves into corpus in the midrange
10 days out, only one run shows it. Nothing to talk about.
Taking this more seriously now, multiple runs of the GFS tells me it's a real signal. Will be interesting if the CMC/Euro pick up on it.
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: RE: Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
jlauderdal wrote:Brownsville to New Foundland this far out, peak season is looking busy and its close in activity.Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
10 days out, only one run shows it. Nothing to talk about.
Taking this more seriously now, multiple runs of the GFS tells me it's a real signal. Will be interesting if the CMC/Euro pick up on it.
1933 vibes where multiple strong hurricanes target different areas across the Atlantic

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Unless explicitly stated, all info in my posts is based on my own opinions and observations. Tropical storms and hurricanes can be extremely dangerous. Do not think you can beat Mother Nature. Refer to an accredited weather research agency or meteorologist if you need to make serious decisions regarding an approaching storm.
Re: RE: Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Category5Kaiju wrote:jlauderdal wrote:Brownsville to New Foundland this far out, peak season is looking busy and its close in activity.Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
Taking this more seriously now, multiple runs of the GFS tells me it's a real signal. Will be interesting if the CMC/Euro pick up on it.
1933 vibes where multiple strong hurricanes target different areas across the Atlantic
Yeah but let’s fn hope not. City had some issues with Zeta and Ida and Gustav among others, but this would be the worst since Katrina for New Orleans. Luckily my apartment there is on the 4th floor of an old industrial building that’s been around 120 years
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: RE: Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Steve wrote:Category5Kaiju wrote:jlauderdal wrote:Brownsville to New Foundland this far out, peak season is looking busy and its close in activity.
1933 vibes where multiple strong hurricanes target different areas across the Atlantic
Yeah but let’s fn hope not. City had some issues with Zeta and Ida and Gustav among others, but this would be the worst since Katrina for New Orleans.
Oh yeah, don't get me wrong I'm not laughing because its funny I'm laughing out of sheer nervousness. If it's not even August 20 yet and we end up getting multiple hurricanes making impacts across various coastal regions along the Atlantic, then I can't imagine what the final monetary damages and deaths will be once this season is over.
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Unless explicitly stated, all info in my posts is based on my own opinions and observations. Tropical storms and hurricanes can be extremely dangerous. Do not think you can beat Mother Nature. Refer to an accredited weather research agency or meteorologist if you need to make serious decisions regarding an approaching storm.
Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
I knew you weren’t actively joking. I threw you a like. I feel the same way. Any year that has crazy analogs like 24 did is bound to be trouble.
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Steve wrote:Peak looks to be 954mb
May be invest worthy soon, ridging patterns can change this far out though.
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
For the threat of a more serious hurricane event, I would be more concerned with the wave in the Central Atlantic.
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