ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Stormlover70]

IMHO it will miss the trof and linger in the GoM. This could be one of the bigger model fails.
They really need to start incorporating high res mesocale modeling.
Been saying that for years.

I'm thinking this too. This is quickly becoming a nightmare. Consolidation south of Cuba means at least 1-2 extra days over water... as right now as it gets to track parallel to the southern coast of Cuba.. instead of directly over it, and down the line it will probably emerge into the Gulf of Mexico west of the current NHC track. This means a stronger system that takes longer to landfall in Florida.. thus increasing the chances of missing the trof. IMO, a hurricane, perhaps a powerful one - chances are increasing.

trust the NHC

[weeniepatrol]

[DunedinDave]

Looking at visible, there are two areas of swirl that could become the dominant center. The most likely is near where the MLC and NHC has it which is straddling the southern Cuba coast now and partially over water. There’s another area about 50 miles south near the Caymans which looks like it may be trying to converge into a swirl.

[GCANE]

https://imgur.com/B8fp1CP

This could go real fast.
The highest OHC water in the Atlantic is just to the west.

[WaveBreaking]

I really dont like how this is looking

[WaveBreaking]

[StPeteMike]

Here she comes!

[DunedinDave]

There’s a real chance with that convection this center may be forming near the Cayman Islands.

[Stormlover70]

I really dont like how this is looking
https://i.imgur.com/b4tGQku.gif

I agree

[WaveBreaking]

https://imgur.com/B8fp1CP

Kinda crapshooting here but notice how the latest blowup had very little lightning. This might mean that it's close to or directly over PTC4's developing warm core, which would mean that it's also near or over PTC4's MLC/LLC.

[Stormcenter]

But isn’t that just his opinion?

quote="Craters"]

Sure looks to me like the LLC emerged off the southern coast of Cuba a few hours ago.

In his latest video, Levi's interpretation is that the mid-level center is actually over the water to the south of Cuba, and the low-level clouds showing westerly winds are being drawn into that cluster of thunderstorms. I think he said that the mid-level circulation actually isn't closed off to the south yet, and the LLC is still over the spine of Cuba.[/quote]

[sponger]

This so bizarre that we are seriously talking track when we do not yet have a center. The NHC is amazing but no one is that good. I suspect track, intensity, or both will change in a way that we do not expect. If a center develops tomorrow and the 5:00 is relatively unchanged then I will prepare for TS conditions. Generator has 1/4 tank left so gassing up and removing patio furniture is all that's left to do. The rest of the preps like trimming trees and anchoring soffits have been done long ago. I just hope the surprise is track and not intensity.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

I’m going to stick with my original prediction that this doesn’t turn into anything significant. Sloppy TS, bit of much-needed rain, and we’ll all move on.

[Travorum]

Microwave pass from about 2 hours ago:

[WaveBreaking]

Nothing really significant on Camagüey Radar, just some broad rotation elongated SW to NE.

[StPeteMike]

But isn’t that just his opinion?

quote="Craters"]

Sure looks to me like the LLC emerged off the southern coast of Cuba a few hours ago.

In his latest video, Levi's interpretation is that the mid-level center is actually over the water to the south of Cuba, and the low-level clouds showing westerly winds are being drawn into that cluster of thunderstorms. I think he said that the mid-level circulation actually isn't closed off to the south yet, and the LLC is still over the spine of Cuba.

[/quote]
I would have to disagree, but respect, Levi’s assessment on the forming and LLC location still being over Cuba.

[REDHurricane]

This so bizarre that we are seriously talking track when we do not yet have a center. The NHC is amazing but no one is that good. I suspect track, intensity, or both will change in a way that we do not expect. If a center develops tomorrow and the 5:00 is relatively unchanged then I will prepare for TS conditions. Generator has 1/4 tank left so gassing up and removing patio furniture is all that's left to do. The rest of the preps like trimming trees and anchoring soffits have been done long ago. I just hope the surprise is track and not intensity.

Yep, the projected track is far from a sure thing at this point -- if this system keeps shifting south/west of expected then it might miss the trough currently over the midwest and get stuck under the SE U.S. ridge that's supposed to build after the trough exits, possibly giving us a scenario similar to previous GFS runs where it just parks itself over the Gulf loop current for 24+ hours in a favorable shear environment. No reason to be overly worried yet, but anyone who's taking the NHC forecast track/intensity as gospel right now might want to pay extremely close attention to what happens over the next 24-36 hours or so

[aspen]

The latest CIMSS 850mb vorticity plot puts 04L’s central low-level vort roughly along the southern coast of Cuba, comparable to where satellite imagery suggests it’ll be consolidating. Gonna have to watch this closely to see if something does consolidate down there, or if it jumps to Cuba’s northern coast like what the 18z HWRF is suggesting.

[skillz305]

Sharp recurve thru Florida wherever the CoC develops - IMO . Even if it stalls in gulf

[Nuno]

There’s a real chance with that convection this center may be forming near the Cayman Islands.

It looks like it. It's ramping up quickly. I am really hoping we get an upgrade at 11pm. We are well beyond the "potential" phase at this point.