ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: FOUR - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#321 Postby Stormlover70 » Fri Aug 02, 2024 6:02 pm

weeniepatrol wrote:
GCANE wrote:IMHO it will miss the trof and linger in the GoM. This could be one of the bigger model fails.
They really need to start incorporating high res mesocale modeling.
Been saying that for years.


I'm thinking this too. This is quickly becoming a nightmare. Consolidation south of Cuba means at least 1-2 extra days over water... as right now as it gets to track parallel to the southern coast of Cuba.. instead of directly over it, and down the line it will probably emerge into the Gulf of Mexico west of the current NHC track. This means a stronger system that takes longer to landfall in Florida.. thus increasing the chances of missing the trof. IMO, a hurricane, perhaps a powerful one - chances are increasing.
trust the NHC
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#322 Postby weeniepatrol » Fri Aug 02, 2024 6:07 pm

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Re: ATL: FOUR - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#323 Postby DunedinDave » Fri Aug 02, 2024 6:07 pm

Looking at visible, there are two areas of swirl that could become the dominant center. The most likely is near where the MLC and NHC has it which is straddling the southern Cuba coast now and partially over water. There’s another area about 50 miles south near the Caymans which looks like it may be trying to converge into a swirl.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#324 Postby GCANE » Fri Aug 02, 2024 6:11 pm

weeniepatrol wrote:https://imgur.com/B8fp1CP


This could go real fast.
The highest OHC water in the Atlantic is just to the west.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#325 Postby WaveBreaking » Fri Aug 02, 2024 6:14 pm

I really dont like how this is looking :double:
Image
Last edited by WaveBreaking on Fri Aug 02, 2024 6:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#326 Postby WaveBreaking » Fri Aug 02, 2024 6:15 pm

Image
Image
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#327 Postby StPeteMike » Fri Aug 02, 2024 6:16 pm

Here she comes!
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#328 Postby DunedinDave » Fri Aug 02, 2024 6:17 pm

There’s a real chance with that convection this center may be forming near the Cayman Islands.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#329 Postby Stormlover70 » Fri Aug 02, 2024 6:18 pm

WaveBreaking wrote:I really dont like how this is looking :double:
https://i.imgur.com/b4tGQku.gif
I agree
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#330 Postby WaveBreaking » Fri Aug 02, 2024 6:18 pm

weeniepatrol wrote:https://imgur.com/B8fp1CP


Kinda crapshooting here but notice how the latest blowup had very little lightning. This might mean that it's close to or directly over PTC4's developing warm core, which would mean that it's also near or over PTC4's MLC/LLC.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#331 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Aug 02, 2024 6:24 pm

But isn’t that just his opinion?

quote="Craters"]
tolakram wrote:Sure looks to me like the LLC emerged off the southern coast of Cuba a few hours ago.

In his latest video, Levi's interpretation is that the mid-level center is actually over the water to the south of Cuba, and the low-level clouds showing westerly winds are being drawn into that cluster of thunderstorms. I think he said that the mid-level circulation actually isn't closed off to the south yet, and the LLC is still over the spine of Cuba.[/quote]
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#332 Postby sponger » Fri Aug 02, 2024 6:25 pm

This so bizarre that we are seriously talking track when we do not yet have a center. The NHC is amazing but no one is that good. I suspect track, intensity, or both will change in a way that we do not expect. If a center develops tomorrow and the 5:00 is relatively unchanged then I will prepare for TS conditions. Generator has 1/4 tank left so gassing up and removing patio furniture is all that's left to do. The rest of the preps like trimming trees and anchoring soffits have been done long ago. I just hope the surprise is track and not intensity.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#333 Postby MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS » Fri Aug 02, 2024 6:25 pm

I’m going to stick with my original prediction that this doesn’t turn into anything significant. Sloppy TS, bit of much-needed rain, and we’ll all move on.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#334 Postby Travorum » Fri Aug 02, 2024 6:28 pm

Microwave pass from about 2 hours ago:

Image
Image
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#335 Postby WaveBreaking » Fri Aug 02, 2024 6:31 pm

Nothing really significant on Camagüey Radar, just some broad rotation elongated SW to NE.

Image
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#336 Postby StPeteMike » Fri Aug 02, 2024 6:35 pm

Stormcenter wrote:But isn’t that just his opinion?

quote="Craters"]
tolakram wrote:Sure looks to me like the LLC emerged off the southern coast of Cuba a few hours ago.

In his latest video, Levi's interpretation is that the mid-level center is actually over the water to the south of Cuba, and the low-level clouds showing westerly winds are being drawn into that cluster of thunderstorms. I think he said that the mid-level circulation actually isn't closed off to the south yet, and the LLC is still over the spine of Cuba.
[/quote]
I would have to disagree, but respect, Levi’s assessment on the forming and LLC location still being over Cuba.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#337 Postby REDHurricane » Fri Aug 02, 2024 6:42 pm

sponger wrote:This so bizarre that we are seriously talking track when we do not yet have a center. The NHC is amazing but no one is that good. I suspect track, intensity, or both will change in a way that we do not expect. If a center develops tomorrow and the 5:00 is relatively unchanged then I will prepare for TS conditions. Generator has 1/4 tank left so gassing up and removing patio furniture is all that's left to do. The rest of the preps like trimming trees and anchoring soffits have been done long ago. I just hope the surprise is track and not intensity.


Yep, the projected track is far from a sure thing at this point -- if this system keeps shifting south/west of expected then it might miss the trough currently over the midwest and get stuck under the SE U.S. ridge that's supposed to build after the trough exits, possibly giving us a scenario similar to previous GFS runs where it just parks itself over the Gulf loop current for 24+ hours in a favorable shear environment. No reason to be overly worried yet, but anyone who's taking the NHC forecast track/intensity as gospel right now might want to pay extremely close attention to what happens over the next 24-36 hours or so
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#338 Postby aspen » Fri Aug 02, 2024 6:48 pm

The latest CIMSS 850mb vorticity plot puts 04L’s central low-level vort roughly along the southern coast of Cuba, comparable to where satellite imagery suggests it’ll be consolidating. Gonna have to watch this closely to see if something does consolidate down there, or if it jumps to Cuba’s northern coast like what the 18z HWRF is suggesting.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#339 Postby skillz305 » Fri Aug 02, 2024 6:50 pm

Sharp recurve thru Florida wherever the CoC develops - IMO . Even if it stalls in gulf
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#340 Postby Nuno » Fri Aug 02, 2024 6:50 pm

DunedinDave wrote:There’s a real chance with that convection this center may be forming near the Cayman Islands.


It looks like it. It's ramping up quickly. I am really hoping we get an upgrade at 11pm. We are well beyond the "potential" phase at this point.
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