ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

If this southern shift leads to more time in the Gulf, we’re gonna have to watch out to see whether soon-to-be Debby is either sheared or ventilated en route to Florida. The hurricane models are favoring the sheared option, but we’ve seen several examples of storms on this trajectory becoming favorably aligned with a trough and strengthening close to landfall, most notably Michael and Ian (maybe Idalia too if I’m remembering correctly).

I’m still leaning towards a high end TS or low-end hurricane at the moment. Gotta see where the LLC finally consolidates first.

[DunedinDave]

Is it possible the center could be near the Cayman Islands? That’s crazy to think it might be that far separated from where the NHC currently has it on their map.

[rockice]

If i lived anywhere in Louisiana to Tallahassee i would be preparing, here in land o lakes, not too worried the more it goes west.

you may be right i stay in new orleans

[WeatherBoy2000]

PTC 4 is just about to enter a shearless gulf

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/watkinstrack/status/1819548318776623410

[Woofde]

I can easily see a run at hurricane with the adjustments to track. It takes very little time with waters this warm, with more distance from Florida as well that means more energy to entrain. Very curious what modeling will suggest at 0z. There should be a hint of shear, though how much and if dry air entrains is a big question.

[DunedinDave]

I haven’t seen any models initialize the center down near the Caymans which is where this may be. So I don’t even know whether to trust any single model.

[weeniepatrol]

[Steve]

If i lived anywhere in Louisiana to Tallahassee i would be preparing, here in land o lakes, not too worried the more it goes west.

you may be right i stay in new orleans

Stay tuned for 9-10 days out. 504 probably won’t get it but might be some dicey days ahead for us Gulf of Mexicans.

[Stormcenter]

Unfortunately you may be right but I’m still not sold
on this going where it’s suppose to go.

If i lived anywhere in Louisiana to Tallahassee i would be preparing, here in land o lakes, not too worried the more it goes west.

you may be right i stay in new orleans

Stay tuned for 9-10 days out. 504 probably won’t get it but might be some dicey days ahead for us Gulf of Mexicans.

[Stormlover70]

If i lived anywhere in Louisiana to Tallahassee i would be preparing, here in land o lakes, not too worried the more it goes west.

you may be right i stay in new orleans

very unlikely but possibly

[WaveBreaking]

04L has more of a circular look to it now, and the fact that there's clear easterlies over Cuba N of the latest blowup means that the circulation is most likely trying to focus S of Cuba.

[Subtrop]

AL, 04, 2024080300, , BEST, 0, 210N, 791W, 25, 1010, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FOUR, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 011,

[WaveBreaking]

AL, 04, 2024080300, , BEST, 0, 210N, 791W, 25, 1010, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FOUR, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 011,

And there we have it.

[sponger]

Sure looks like a depression.

[Steve]

Yeah word. Fluid dynamic physicists and smarter than AI people like GCANE were real timing that things were different. Not sure how far west the track could get. Gun to head says St. George Island And like we been saying for days it’s early august so climo favors ridging most of the time. But I still think it goes in east of there. Maybe Taylor or Dixie County?

[sasha_B]

AL, 04, 2024080300, , BEST, 0, 210N, 791W, 25, 1010, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FOUR, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 011,

AL, 04, 2024080300, , BEST, 0, 210N, 791W, 25, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 75, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FOUR, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 011,

is what I'm seeing right now on best track. Is it possible there's a discrepancy between two sites hosting this data?

[cycloneye]

That is why I always wait until is oficial to change the titles of threads.

[weeniepatrol]

For what it's worth, RAMMB has TD 4

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... r=al042024

[Sciencerocks]