ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

At least for now, recon is finding the storm force winds are a good distance NE of the center, which explains why the FL Keys saw gusty conditions today. Winds are light near the center for now.

Yeah this is a pretty bad structure for any significant intensification in the near-term. Broad circulation, shallow pressure gradient, and max winds far from the center. A Cat 1 seems to be a reasonable maximum possible landfall intensity estimate at this point in time. If Debby manages to consolidate faster, though, then perhaps RI is possible.

[WeatherBoy2000]

Not that I am going to argue with you...but "structure" means structure to allow deepening. It does not as of now have that. To start to deepen it needs a tight center.

That seems to be occurring as we speak

It's been getting better organized all day, but it isn't there yet. Recon can barely find TS force winds as of now. I think some people here are used to seeing storms blow up every time...and that is the exception not the rule. Not every cyclone RIs

Typically storms need at least a day or so over water to build up their structure before they can really get going. Wilma for example was a meandering TS for about a day before she went into her explosive intensification phase. I won't be surprised if Debby ends up kind of like Hanna from a few years ago, a storm that enters its RI phase just before landfall.

[beachnut]

I posted this nifty storm surge prediction tool here a couple years ago a few days before Ian hit us. We live on the water not far from an inlet to the Caloosahatchee River. Even though we were likely going to my dad's house on higher ground this surge tool was one of the deciding factors. This was before the storm took it's right-hand turn into us, the surge was actually worse. We were very fortunate as the water came right up to about 1" from going under the doors. Many people in our neighborhood were not so lucky. I'm using the Cera surge tool right now, so far we're good.

https://cera.coastalrisk.live/

[TampaBayBee]

The Gulf this time of year I write of no possibilities!!! I mean none!

Yeah but the Gulf this time of year isn’t usually an issue. Btw always great to read your posts caneman. Not sure how many years we all have left but still.[/quote

Love ya Stevie. I think you me and Frank P and Sanibel are a few left overs from Central Florida Hurricane center. Not sure if I missed any? Please announce yourself if i missed you. This year just seems different. I know many here go off data, analytics, etc... I go off gut feel of living these things for 50 years. Take care my brother.

Successfully lurking here for 20 years...

[jlauderdal]

we here got strong rainband by miami airport area other coming from key biscayne area moving nw

We have a band sitting on top of us and more coming from your direction.

They’ve been coming through here in Martin county on and off all day. The last one was the heaviest so far. Seems the squally weather will continue through tomorrow Evening unless track changes.

We are under a tornado warning now, frisky feeder band.

[TallyTracker]

This is reminding me of 2016’s Hermine. Similar intensity and impacts except Debby is expected to move much slower.

[robbielyn]

Yeah but the Gulf this time of year isn’t usually an issue. Btw always great to read your posts caneman. Not sure how many years we all have left but still.[/quote

Love ya Stevie. I think you me and Frank P and Sanibel are a few left overs from Central Florida Hurricane center. Not sure if I missed any? Please announce yourself if i missed you. This year just seems different. I know many here go off data, analytics, etc... I go off gut feel of living these things for 50 years. Take care my brother.

I have been here 20 years.

i came here 2003. I hv always enjoyed the long timers posts. I’ve learned so much!

[Steve]

We have a band sitting on top of us and more coming from your direction.

They’ve been coming through here in Martin county on and off all day. The last one was the heaviest so far. Seems the squally weather will continue through tomorrow Evening unless track changes.

We are under a tornado warning now, frisky feeder band.

JLD another denizen from CFHC. Mean looking bands.
https://radar.weather.gov/station/KAMX/standard

[Nimbus]

Recon just found 1000 MB pressure near 24.1 83.4.
Still pretty ragged looking between convective bursts.

[drexas]

Looks like pressure is down a few millibars this AF pass. Seeing ~1000, decent deepening.

[O Town]

Yeah but the Gulf this time of year isn’t usually an issue. Btw always great to read your posts caneman. Not sure how many years we all have left but still.[/quote

Love ya Stevie. I think you me and Frank P and Sanibel are a few left overs from Central Florida Hurricane center. Not sure if I missed any? Please announce yourself if i missed you. This year just seems different. I know many here go off data, analytics, etc... I go off gut feel of living these things for 50 years. Take care my brother.

I have been here 20 years.

i came here 2003. I hv always enjoyed the long timers posts. I’ve learned so much!

Been here since 2004, after Charley. Was just talking to hubby tonight about how long I’ve been here. I remember we did a meet up at Seaworld , and still have some s2K merch from then. Although I don’t post as much I still love to see old faces here.

[jlauderdal]

They’ve been coming through here in Martin county on and off all day. The last one was the heaviest so far. Seems the squally weather will continue through tomorrow Evening unless track changes.

We are under a tornado warning now, frisky feeder band.

JLD another denizen from CFHC. Mean looking bands.
https://radar.weather.gov/station/KAMX/standard

73 mph gust at port evetglades in fort lauderdale. I guess thats why they call it the dirty side.

[sweetpea]

Yeah but the Gulf this time of year isn’t usually an issue. Btw always great to read your posts caneman. Not sure how many years we all have left but still.[/quote

Love ya Stevie. I think you me and Frank P and Sanibel are a few left overs from Central Florida Hurricane center. Not sure if I missed any? Please announce yourself if i missed you. This year just seems different. I know many here go off data, analytics, etc... I go off gut feel of living these things for 50 years. Take care my brother.

I have been here 20 years.

i came here 2003. I hv always enjoyed the long timers posts. I’ve learned so much!

I have been here 20 years love this site

[hipshot]

Recon just found 1000 MB pressure near 24.1 83.4.
Still pretty ragged looking between convective bursts.

Do we have a speed and direction on Debby yet, it seems to be crawling mostly N. of due W. or maybe NW.

[Orlando]

I've been reading here since 2010 when I moved to Naples. This is the most trusted place for information on the storms. I always follow along and read but don't always post. In 2015, I moved to Orlando just in time to miss Irma, and I don't even want to think about Ian.

You all help me to stay safe, and you give good advise. It is a pleasure to be around such enlightened people. I have learned so much from everyone here.

[Steve]

We are under a tornado warning now, frisky feeder band.

JLD another denizen from CFHC. Mean looking bands.
https://radar.weather.gov/station/KAMX/standard

73 mph gust at port evetglades in fort lauderdale. I guess thats why they call it the dirty side.

Yeah before the pandemic there was that system that came up west coast and all the Miami and north people on social media were freaking at the 60-70-80 winds and gusts. You know how it is. Hope you don’t lose power or sustain any damage.

[weeniepatrol]

Rumors of a loose gradient have been highly exaggerated. 1000.5 to 1007 over like 10 n mi

[Nimbus]

Recon just found 1000 MB pressure near 24.1 83.4.
Still pretty ragged looking between convective bursts.

Do we have a speed and direction on Debby yet, it seems to be crawling mostly N. of due W. or maybe NW.

Could even be NNW now the center fixes on shallow systems are difficult.
Does seem to be moving slower than I expected when I made my benchmark 12 hours ago has moved NW since then.

[weeniepatrol]

[ConvergenceZone]

Yeah but the Gulf this time of year isn’t usually an issue. Btw always great to read your posts caneman. Not sure how many years we all have left but still.[/quote

Love ya Stevie. I think you me and Frank P and Sanibel are a few left overs from Central Florida Hurricane center. Not sure if I missed any? Please announce yourself if i missed you. This year just seems different. I know many here go off data, analytics, etc... I go off gut feel of living these things for 50 years. Take care my brother.

I have been here 20 years.

i came here 2003. I hv always enjoyed the long timers posts. I’ve learned so much!

I came here early as well. There was a weather forum I belonged to before this one where people like Sanibel and few other old timers hanged out. But I can't remember the name of the weather board.