ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Michele B]

Look at the forecasting of Ian or better yet Charley. They often leave it as is. Partly because it’s difficult to ascertain true moment vs a wobble. That is where forecasting error percentages are reported after the fact. They did try to change the cone and keep people informed that the impacts are not represented by such. I think this one is going to surprise people because it’s truly going to be a flood event for many.

But I don't feel they've "misrepresented" anything (not your words, but just saying) with their forecast.

THey've been showing that graphic that shows many inches of rain (up to 20" or so) in some areas. Maybe not high enough totals, though, I'll grant you that.

We are in DeSoto County and we've had several good squalls throughout the day and each one probably laid down 2-3 inches of rain. Still coming down right now, as a matter of fact.

Based on local radar I'm watching, I expect we'll see maybe one or two smaller squalls before this thing clears out of our area entirely.

Nobody said anything about mis representing. It's well within the cone. PLEASE don't re-write words or twist words.

Wasn't trying to do that.

I said those were my words. Sorry if that sounded harsh or negative. Not intending that at all. It's just that it can seem as though they don't get enough (or maybe I mean accurate) information out soon enough.

Sorry, I'm not explaining it clearly enough.

I should just apologize and quit now!

[psyclone]

Debby is up to the latitude of tampa bay now so wind will be veering onshore over the next few hours resulting in coastal water rises topped by large battering waves. The banding that will come into that region tonight will be intense as it feeds directly in from the sea. It's gonna be a rough night over west central FL and the nature coast with all tropical hazards in the cards including beach eating south and eventually southwest winds assaulting low lying and very vulnerable terrain...much of which is still sporting unrepairable damage from prior events.

[HurricaneBelle]

Storm surge +3.2 ft at Ft Myers. Suspect surge may approach 4-5 ft in Tampa Bay as winds turn more Southerly as Debbie moves north of their latitude. Highest wind gusts I see is 56 mph in St Pete.

Fox 13's Paul Delegatto reported a 61MPH gust in Clearwater, which tracks with what I've seen here.

[psyclone]

KPIE was 36mph gusting to 48 last hour.

[Michele B]

Debby must be approaching hurricane status by now.

Our squalls here are getting more fierce, not less, and she's moving away from us.

[LandoWill]

Question and not an attack on the NHC. They're awesome. I've been tracking these things for a long time... It seems the NHC sometimes lags by a couple hours or so on what is happening. The question is this.... Does the NHC have discussion written up
ahead of time? In other words, if a NE
movement or a slower movement occured a couple hours ago, would they leave the discussion as is for continuity sake or just not having time to update? And then blend it out in the next discussion?

Look at the forecasting of Ian or better yet Charley. They often leave it as is. Partly because it’s difficult to ascertain true moment vs a wobble. That is where forecasting error percentages are reported after the fact. They did try to change the cone and keep people informed that the impacts are not represented by such. I think this one is going to surprise people because it’s truly going to be flood event.

Agree. I think they like to smooth things out over time but she looks like she has her eyes set on Cedar Key and if so will be Tampa Bay under more wind. Already more impressive in my opinion than Idalia which was stronger when it passed by.

Still drizzling. When is this debby gonna provide wind? I'm east of new port richey.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Either the MLC and LLC have become very misaligned, or Debby is way off course.

[Nuno]

Either the MLC and LLC have become very misaligned, or Debby is way off course.

https://i.imgur.com/xXhuYiJ.png

Just like Ian. Stuck on using only the modeling instead of seeing how the storm is moving in real time.

[eastcoastFL]

She’s about to have the entire state covered pretty soon. Let’s hope that stall doesn’t happen sooner or all of Florida will be soggy.

[Blown Away]

Tropical systems have a hard time getting past a solid Cat 1 into the Big Bend area…

[Hurricane2022]

[StormPyrate]

Water spout just came ashore (radar indicated) and some visual reports St Pete Beach

[Nuno]

This band is really huge, we are getting absolutely stormed at the moment in SFL. Cant imagine how it is closer to CFL and Tampa. I hope everyone is safe

[tolakram]

saved loop from RadarScope

[Orlando]

I'm in Orlando, Dr Phillips area and we have only had a few showers so far with mild wind. It has been nothing more than what we usually get during rainy season. There has not been any lightning nor thunder surprisingly. The feeder bands come this way but seem to break up by the time they get here. It started for us about 2 PM.

[ronjon]

Either the MLC and LLC have become very misaligned, or Debby is way off course.

https://i.imgur.com/xXhuYiJ.png

Yes the center is pretty clearly tracking N-NE now. Not sure if it's a temporary movement as the center contracts and becomes more organized or it's feeling the effects of the trough as it strengthens. Either way we can track the real-time center via radar.

[CronkPSU]

I'm in Orlando, Dr Phillips area and we have only had a few showers so far with mild wind. It has been nothing more than what we usually get during rainy season. There has not been any lightning nor thunder surprisingly. The feeder bands come this way but seem to break up by the time they get here. It started for us about 2 PM.

we have gotten tons of rain including lots of thunder the last 3 hours here on the other side of the airport in Avalon Park/UCF area...some street flooding in the neighborhood already (tho we get that a lot when storms stick around in the summer)

[eastcoastFL]

Tequesta to Vero will be in a pretty heavy band around 6:45. Just FYI if you’re in that area.

[TampaWxLurker]

If this movement continues, wouldn't be surprised if she landfalls as far east as the Steinhatchee area.

[caneman]

Debby must be approaching hurricane status by now.

Our squalls here are getting more fierce, not less, and she's moving away from us.

She's moving towards us from what I see on radar. Moving NE. The tail is always worse for us wind wise. The rain is ferocious nothing like Ive seen in a while!