Tropical Wave in SW Caribbean (0/0)

[LadyBug72]

What do the steering currents look like for this wave in the future?

[Stratton23]

Too early to say, but the gulf for sure will need to watch this one closely

[IcyTundra]

What do the steering currents look like for this wave in the future?

Generally westward until the Western Caribbean. After that it is a bit too early to say but I think there are 3 main possibilities. Still way too early to know which scenario is most likely to happen though.

1. The wave doesn't develop and goes into Central America

2. The wave develops in the Western Caribbean but ridging is strong enough to maintain a westward to west-northwestward track into the Bay of Campeche and eventually Mexico

3. The wave develops in the Western Caribbean and there is a enough of a weakness over the CONUS to turn it more northwestward towards the Gulf Coast.

[TomballEd]

GEFS finally picking up on the NHC lemon.

[IcyTundra]

18Z EPS 25-30% of members show development

[txag2005]

Beryl cleanup is far from over here in the Houston area. This wave makes me nervous already.

[Stratton23]

06z GFS with a weak Tropical Storm into eastern parts of houston

[Stratton23]

Steering currents completely collapse on that run, GFS almost pulls a tropical storm allison

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Debby, centered inland near the Florida Big Bend.

1. East of the Windward Islands:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
near the Windward Islands have decreased and become less organized
since yesterday. Any development of this system should be slow to
occur during the next couple of days while the system moves westward
over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are
expected to become more conducive for development later this week as
the system moves across the western Caribbean Sea or the southern
Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.


Forecaster D. Zelinsky

[zzzh]

EPS keeps trending weaker.

[hipshot]

EPS keeps trending weaker.

What is EPS and I don't mean "earnings per share" as we are now seeing in the stock markets!

[toad strangler]

EPS keeps trending weaker.

What is EPS and I don't mean "earnings per share" as we are now seeing in the stock markets!

EPS are Euro ensembles

[Michele B]

I'm more concerned about a little thing I see at 15N & 35W

Seems to already have some structure to it, and a good circulation.

Take a look here:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 696,15.346

[ConvergenceZone]

EPS keeps trending weaker.

Yea I don't think we will see too much action out of this wave. The NHC is even keeping development chances at 30% in the long term. We should start seeing some strong waves behind it though being that we will be approaching the middle of August soon.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS develops in GOM.

[Stormcenter]

Really…….it’s August.

EPS keeps trending weaker.

Yea I don't think we will see too much action out of this wave. The NHC is even keeping development chances at 30% in the long term. We should start seeing some strong waves behind it though being that we will be approaching the middle of August soon.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS landfall just south of Galveston with 971 mb pressure.

[aspen]

12z GFS and CMC develop, with a northerly track on the former (NW into the Gulf, Harvey-esqe track) and a southern track on the latter (buries into Central America, attempts to emerge in BoC).

[Stratton23]

Im not buying the EPS/ Euro, given how the GFS has done a better job at seeing development this year than the euro, im leaning more towards development of the wave, looking in real time, the wave is also convectively active and more amplified currently than what the euro shows

[TomballEd]

Im not buying the EPS/ Euro, given how the GFS has done a better job at seeing development this year than the euro, im leaning more towards development of the wave, looking in real time, the wave is also convectively active and more amplified currently than what the euro shows

The Euro ensembles had many members seeing Debby when the GFS had few, if any, for 2 or 3 days before the GEFS started catching on. 6Z GEFS, I think it was 3 of 30 seeing the wave entering the Caribbean reaching the W Gulf N of S. BoC Mexico.