2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[ScottNAtlanta]

By the way, Atlantic ACE STILL exceeds EPAC + WPAC combined

What really opens my eyes is that when you see such a BUSY EPAC the Atlantic should be dead. For the most part. To see this is worrisome.

https://i.ibb.co/DVb6NrK/Image-003.jpg

While there are a lot of storms, they have all been pretty low quality in the EPAC with only Carlotta briefly being a hurricane.

[weeniepatrol]

By the way, Atlantic ACE STILL exceeds EPAC + WPAC combined

Never seen anything like this before. I didn't even know this was possible!!!

[chaser1]

By the way, Atlantic ACE STILL exceeds EPAC + WPAC combined

What really opens my eyes is that when you see such a BUSY EPAC the Atlantic should be dead. For the most part. To see this is worrisome.

https://i.ibb.co/DVb6NrK/Image-003.jpg

I agree. Furthermore, I think that once the real switch is flipped, we'll go back to seeing the lower latitude genesis that Beryl and Chris tipped off likely to be the predominate origin and potentially long range tracks. Sure, there will be a few recurves and probably a (smaller) number of outside-MDR development, but this seems like the year where "the swarm of bees" is not something way to the east but instead in our neck of the woods. My biggest question is how many will remain to the south to impact Central America & Mexico and how many will threaten the Greater Antilles and U.S? I'm sure it'll be excessive for both.

[weeniepatrol]

By the way, Atlantic ACE STILL exceeds EPAC + WPAC combined

What really opens my eyes is that when you see such a BUSY EPAC the Atlantic should be dead. For the most part. To see this is worrisome.

https://i.ibb.co/DVb6NrK/Image-003.jpg

I agree. Furthermore, I think that once the real switch is flipped, we'll go back to seeing the lower latitude genesis that Beryl and Chris tipped off likely to be the predominate origin and potentially long range tracks. Sure, there will be a few recurves and probably a (smaller) number of outside-MDR development, but this seems like the year where "the swarm of bees" is not something way to the east but instead in our neck of the woods. My biggest question is how many will remain to the south to impact Central America & Mexico and how many will threaten the Greater Antilles and U.S? I'm sure it'll be excessive for both.

Even Debby formed below the Tropic of Cancer. Every single system has been pure tropical energy forming in the deep tropics, then hitting land.

This season is already extremely uncomfortable.

[weeniepatrol]

BTW, here's a daily ACE plot, showing average ACE per day through the season. Credit to Deelan Jariwala.



As you can see, early August is just a glorified late July. Extremely inactive.. even mid July has more activity. Oh, also the MJO is located directly over the EPAC which has like four active systems, and suppressed intraseasonal forcing remains over the Atlantic.

So lets see; we've got suppressed MJO, EPAC "outbreak", and awful climatology and we STILL get a US hurricane landfall in Debby, oh and btw it's going to meander and dump 20-30 inches of rain on multiple US cities.

I'm waving a white flag. Let us fast travel to November, please.

[cycloneye]

EC seasonal predicts 1.5x climo ace for SONDJF

You may have to explain a little more and if there are graphics better, as many members may not understand that.

Found graphics from ECMWF and what it means for the rest of season.

 https://x.com/Souza101Matt/status/1820554906404782562

[chaser1]

Another interestingly LARGE easterly surge similar to what spawned Debby can be seen on satellite at about 15N and 40W. It too is barreling westward without any hint of convection, but I wonder if it too will slowly draw moisture as it approached the Lesser Antilles? I suppose that might be more dependent on downstream upper-level conditions. Seems like the Atlantic is still shaking out a bit of African dust.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1820811256380666063

[MarioProtVI]

CHI forecasts from the models from end of August to mid-September don’t scream hyperactive moreso just a semi-active period. Might just be me but idk. Would peak season override it and we end up like 2017 which I think was similar with a +CHI anomaly over the Atlantic but still went crazy?

[Stratton23]

NOAA has a highlighted zone for possible development in the western- NW gulf from august 14th-20th, im not seeing anything in model guidance in that time frame, any pro mets here maybe know what that agency is seeing to pit that out on the tropical hazards outlook?

[MetroMike]

Getting into the heart of the season

[hurricanetrack]

Figured I would drop today's video in this thread. We all "know" what's likely coming...Debby and Beryl before that seem to be telling us that CSU is on track. Hope everyone is extra ready!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wby7Eb0KSy8

[Ubuntwo]

CHI forecasts from the models from end of August to mid-September don’t scream hyperactive moreso just a semi-active period. Might just be me but idk. Would peak season override it and we end up like 2017 which I think was similar with a +CHI anomaly over the Atlantic but still went crazy?

+CHI over the Atlantic and -CHI over Africa and the Indian Ocean is the most favorable possible look for north Atlantic activity. See 2020’s setup. This is MJO phases 2-3 verbatim.

[WaveBreaking]

Seeing how debby managed to form during an (albeit quantity>quality) EPAC outbreak and an unfavorable MJO phase, I wouldn't be surprised if we see 1995-levels of CV activity once the switch inevitably flips

[SFLcane]

.

[Stratton23]

I think its a really bad thing thats its quiet like now, because thats just allowing for OHC to continue to build in the western caribbean and even in the gulf, water temps have already begun to rebound from debbie, unfortunately with all of that available energy, i fear things could potentially get ugly once that MJO establishes itself in the atlantic and the dust begins a non factor

[Teban54]

Not sure how sensitive OISST is to SAL outbreaks (IIRC it's better than CDAS but still somewhat affected), but it indicates some cooling of the Atlantic MDR recently, though still well-above average. The subtropics is also anomalously warm and seems to have been warming slightly, more notably to the west.





However, upcoming westerlies should warm up the MDR again:

[LarryWx]

2024 has had 2 CONUS H landfalls by Aug 5th. Since 1851, there have been only 8 other seasons with 2+ by then with 7 of those 8 having exactly 2:

Year: # of CONUS H LFs by 8/5; # for 8/6+; *ASO ENSO ONI

-2024: 2; ?; ?
-2020: 2; 4; -1.2
-2005: 2; 3; -0.0
-1959: 2; 1; -0.3
-1936: 2; 1; -0.3
-1934: 2; 1; -0.1
-1916: 2; 2; -1.4
-1909: 2; 3; -1.0
-1886: 4; 2; -0.8

-So, only one season (1886) since 1851 has had more CONUS H landfalls by 8/5 than 2024
-All 8 seasons had at least one 8/6+ CONUS H landfall with a range of 1-4 and an average of 2.1
-The 5 seasons with 2-4 8/6+ CONUS H landfalls (avg of 3) had an average -0.9 in ASO
-The 3 seasons with only one 8/6+ H landfall averaged -0.2 in ASO
-Most likely the 2024 ASO RONI will be much closer to -0.8 than to -0.2, which implies we may be headed to ~3 more CONUS H landfalls this season for a rare total of ~5, a scary thought; only 1886, 1893, 1985, 2004, 2005, and 2020 had 5+ (5-6)

*ASO: used RONI for 1950+ and Webb ONI pre 1950

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1821380874186727707

[weeniepatrol]

NHC surface analysis shows MDR surface pressures have fallen below 1012mb. Been 1014-1016 for many weeks; lowest MDR pressures of the season.