Tropical Wave in Eastern Atlantic (Is Invest 98L)

[LarryWx]

0Z EPS mean is E of the more threatening GEFS with very few in the Gulf and most members recurving E of the US. A nontrivial number still hit the E coast, however. So, a long way to go!

[lilbump3000]

[Teban54]

A couple of GEFS members do look very concerning. But shoutout to that one member with Idalia 2.0 giving Perry its 3rd hurricane in 2 years


Meanwhile, 0z Euro looks like it's aiming for that rare Maine landfall:

[mantis83]

I smell a fish, and the models do too!…….

[Hurricane2022]

I smell a fish, and the models do too!…….

I still don't know if you do it as a joke or to annoy. Please stop this.
The world is not a US territory...

[jlauderdal]

I smell a fish, and the models do too!…….

I still don't know if you do it as a joke or to annoy. Please stop this.
The world is not a US territory...

I sent mantis a dm to help him with terminology and a few "suggestions". Too early to call this a fish, more concerning now is what else is on the map, as we inch closer to peak.

[otowntiger]

I smell a fish, and the models do too!…….

I still don't know if you do it as a joke or to annoy. Please stop this.
The world is not a US territory...

I sent mantis a dm to help him with terminology and a few "suggestions". Too early to call this a fish, more concerning now is what else is on the map, as we inch closer to peak.

well said. But what else is on the map at this time?

[jlauderdal]

I still don't know if you do it as a joke or to annoy. Please stop this.
The world is not a US territory...

I sent mantis a dm to help him with terminology and a few "suggestions". Too early to call this a fish, more concerning now is what else is on the map, as we inch closer to peak.

well said. But what else is on the map at this time?

Model Maps have activity in the longer range, I could have been more clear about which maps.

[Hurricaneman]

The 6zGFS shows a cat 3 impact to OBX this run

[AubreyStorm]

The 6zGFS shows a cat 3 impact to OBX this run

OBX? Means??

[Hurricaneman]

The 6zGFS shows a cat 3 impact to OBX this run

OBX? Means??

Cape Hatteras, NC

[xironman]

The 6zGFS shows a cat 3 impact to OBX this run

Much stronger subtropical ridge

[BobHarlem]

The 6zGFS shows a cat 3 impact to OBX this run

OBX? Means??

North Carolina Outer Banks

[jlauderdal]

The 6zGFS shows a cat 3 impact to OBX this run

OBX? Means??

Cape Hatteras, NC

Outer Banks, Cape Hatteras is on the outer banks, but that's not what OBX means. SOFLA means lots of things, which is why I say SEFL. In terms of this board, there is a big difference between SWFL and SEFL-ask the recipients of IAN and IRMA, but both are in SOFLA.

[Weathertracker96]

That surely was a shift west. I don’t know if the gfs had it this close to the coast before. Surely no fish as of now because models already have it hitting the islands. It’s still early and until we get a center and more data, don’t be surprised to see more changes.

[abajan]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Debby, located inland over the Mid-Atlantic region.

Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles to the west-southwest
of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over the tropical Atlantic. Any
development of the wave should be slow to occur during the next
couple of days while it moves westward across the central tropical
Atlantic. Afterwards, conditions are expected to become more
conducive for development while the wave moves west-northwestward,
and a tropical depression could form by early next week while the
system approaches the Lesser Antilles. The system is then forecast
to continue moving generally west-northwestward and could approach
the Greater Antilles by the middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[jlauderdal]

OBX? Means??

Cape Hatteras, NC

Outer Banks, Cape Hatteras is on the outer banks, but that's not what OBX means. SOFLA means lots of things, which is why I say SEFL. In terms of this board, there is a big difference between SWFL and SEFL-ask the recipients of IAN and IRMA, but both are in SOFLA.

Last geo post for today and this includes govt agencies like NHC. When you say all interests in Florida or its nearing Florida, you are causing confusion. There is a big difference between something closing in on Miami and something closing in on Pensacola for the general public not watching every model cycle.

[AutoPenalti]

It’s a complex set up, if it hasn’t been yet, it’s going to be.

[Category5Kaiju]

The wave already looks very healthy on satellite. Almost looks like the budding of a monstrous storm. Where it goes...that's the big question isn't it? And no, I don't count this as a "fish" storm because it seems on track to impact the extreme northeastern Caribbean islands.

[ronjon]

Will be interesting to see how the EC and GFS emsembles trend the next few days. Way too early to know where this storm goes past the LAs. All we have to do is remember the early runs of Debby. The Euro consistently had it going up the east coast.