Tropical Wave in Eastern Atlantic (Is Invest 98L)

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

12z EPS, ensembles starting to consolidate slightly

https://i.imgur.com/ciMRH9t.png

RIP Leafs and Eskimo's

[toad strangler]

12z EPS, ensembles starting to consolidate slightly

https://i.imgur.com/ciMRH9t.png

Look at that one ensemble member has a Cat 1/2 hit in the NYC area. Thankfully it’s an outlier for now.

I rarely opine on individual ensemble members but that same member you cite equally threatens WPB FL, Cape Hatteras NC, and the NJ shore before approaching the NYC area.

[Hurricane2022]

recurve safely away from the us coast seems more and more likely.......

In fact, it is possible that the future Ernesto will miss the east coast of the USA, but so far this possibility still uncertain.

Before saying (or writing) this, pls take a look at the predictions of the models and their ensembles, read posts from trustworthy people and meteorologists about this system here and on other social networks... Otherwise, these strange jokes could give you some problems with Forum Admins soon

[mantis83]

Can you give your reasoning for this?

euro and cmc have the ridge that has been dominating the west atlantic all summer moving east, being replaced by troughing. the gfs also has this same scenario. gfs has the storm weaker and further south while also rebuilding the ridge back west more than the other models.as others have pointed out, gfs ensembles are east of op........

the overall pattern to me screams recurve

First of all, I appreciate you giving some reasoning to back up your case. You’ve gotten a fair bit of flack for your posts (I’m pretty sure from myself as well) for making assertions that most would claim don’t have sufficient evidence to back up that degree of confidence. I think posts like this one would do better at keeping responses like that at bay.

That said, I do disagree with your original post that a recurve looks “more and more likely”. I think you’re right if you say a recurve is more likely in general, as that outcome has a higher statistical likelihood by default without even looking at models. However, I don’t think the results of the 12z model suite have increased the likelihood beyond what it was prior.

For example at time of your post, the gfs had just shifted west and while we agree that this shift may be due to the gfs erroneously keeping it weaker in the short term, it’s probably also due to the flatter and more progressive nature of the trough, which lifts out faster and allows more ridging to build in. This is also observed in the 12z gefs, which results in a little tighter clustering of the members toward the western side of the envelope. But yes, plenty still recurve, and there are other ops like the cmc that show this as well. The euro is kind of a mixed bag, as the last several 240hr runs take the storm on approach to the coast, but vary on approach each time and don’t go far enough out to see the end result.

I think what I personally take issue with is that there seems to be no acknowledgment of the evidence that runs counter to your argument. There is some, and while it’s a minority among the forecast tools available, it still does warrant some consideration since we are still so far out. If you want to discard it, so be it, but people are probably going to ask why you are so confident in doing so. Not acknowledging the existing uncertainty gives the impression that you’re hoping the storm away rather than giving a good faith evaluation of the setup.

this is a fair statement......i'm admittedly more biased towards the euro most of the time, although the gfs was far better with debby than the euro. in this case, with lack of strong ridging in the west atlantic, that would suggest a recurve is more likely, however day 10 euro does have a deep cutoff in the ohio valley, so if the storm moves further west the cutoff could draw it in, however no other model has that right now......

[LarryWx]

recurve safely away from the us coast seems more and more likely.......

In fact, it is possible that the future Ernesto will miss the east coast of the USA, but so far this possibility still uncertain.

Before saying (or writing) this, pls take a look at the predictions of the models and their ensembles, read posts from trustworthy people and meteorologists about this system here and on other social networks... Otherwise, these strange jokes could give you some problems with Forum Admins soon

All mantis said was “recurve safely away from the us coast seems more and more likely”. Why should forum admins have a problem with that?

[Tekken_Guy]

12z EPS, ensembles starting to consolidate slightly

https://i.imgur.com/ciMRH9t.png

Look at that one ensemble member has a Cat 1/2 hit in the NYC area. Thankfully it’s an outlier for now.

How likely is this to hit NYC?

[IcyTundra]

12z EPS, ensembles starting to consolidate slightly

https://i.imgur.com/ciMRH9t.png

Look at that one ensemble member has a Cat 1/2 hit in the NYC area. Thankfully it’s an outlier for now.

How likely is this to hit NYC?

Quite low at the moment but not impossible.

[toad strangler]

12z EPS, ensembles starting to consolidate slightly

https://i.imgur.com/ciMRH9t.png

Look at that one ensemble member has a Cat 1/2 hit in the NYC area. Thankfully it’s an outlier for now.

How likely is this to hit NYC?

Nothing is off the table but unlikely. There was a comment regarding just one coming close out of a slew of ensemble members. Ensembles should be used as multiple members collectively and not individually. IMO

[ObsessedMiami]

recurve safely away from the us coast seems more and more likely.......

In fact, it is possible that the future Ernesto will miss the east coast of the USA, but so far this possibility still uncertain.

Before saying (or writing) this, pls take a look at the predictions of the models and their ensembles, read posts from trustworthy people and meteorologists about this system here and on other social networks... Otherwise, these strange jokes could give you some problems with Forum Admins soon

All mantis said was “recurve safely away from the us coast seems more and more likely”. Why should forum admins have a problem with that?

Because if you go back a few pages, he keeps spamming “fish” comments and recurve posts

[Teban54]

The wave in question is gaining a bit of convection this afternoon:

[IsabelaWeather]

The wave in question is gaining a bit of convection this afternoon:
https://i.postimg.cc/05wbn37L/goes16-ir-eatl.gif

DMAX ought to be interesting. Looks like a general broad circulation now that I dont remember seeing yesterday.

[aspen]

12z EPS, ensembles starting to consolidate slightly

https://i.imgur.com/ciMRH9t.png

Look at that one ensemble member has a Cat 1/2 hit in the NYC area. Thankfully it’s an outlier for now.

I rarely opine on individual ensemble members but that same member you cite equally threatens WPB FL, Cape Hatteras NC, and the NJ shore before approaching the NYC area.

Yep. Basically a bigger, badder Irene.

Hard to tell right now if we’re actually at risk here in the NE. We just have to wait for a TC to form to narrow down exactly when and where this’ll start turning north.

[Tekken_Guy]

Look at that one ensemble member has a Cat 1/2 hit in the NYC area. Thankfully it’s an outlier for now.

I rarely opine on individual ensemble members but that same member you cite equally threatens WPB FL, Cape Hatteras NC, and the NJ shore before approaching the NYC area.

Yep. Basically a bigger, badder Irene.

Hard to tell right now if we’re actually at risk here in the NE. We just have to wait for a TC to form to narrow down exactly when and where this’ll start turning north.

Would this be Sandy-level bad for us?

[cycloneye]

Very good from the NWS of San Juan to alert the population this early about what may unfold by tuesday thru wednesday here in PR.

 https://x.com/NWSSanJuan/status/1821995260584849755

[aspen]

I rarely opine on individual ensemble members but that same member you cite equally threatens WPB FL, Cape Hatteras NC, and the NJ shore before approaching the NYC area.

Yep. Basically a bigger, badder Irene.

Hard to tell right now if we’re actually at risk here in the NE. We just have to wait for a TC to form to narrow down exactly when and where this’ll start turning north.

Would this be Sandy-level bad for us?

If we were to get hit by a Cat 1/2 like that, possibly worse. I remember a post or article from Crown Weather earlier this year where he expressed his concerns about a significant northeast hurricane strike. Since it’s been so long since the last significant hurricane landfall in New England (one of the storms from 1954 IIRC), there’s been a lot of population and tree growth, and said population (plus our electrical grid) is in no way prepared for a 90-100+ mph hurricane strike. Such a wind event will topple a lot of the now-mature trees and could cripple the grid for months. Worse wind damage than Sandy or Irene.

Fortunately, the northeast is a pretty difficult target for tropical systems, and it’s still way too far out to confidently say that we’ll see any impacts from future Ernesto. The odds of us getting that exact ensemble member track and intensity are very low.

[hipshot]

The wave in question is gaining a bit of convection this afternoon:
https://i.postimg.cc/05wbn37L/goes16-ir-eatl.gif

Looks like a lot more trouble coming off the coast of Africa

[OuterBanker]

12z GFS https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 912&fh=228

6z GFS https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 906&fh=234

12z Euro https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 912&fh=240

12z CMC https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 912&fh=240

for giggles yesterdays 00z Euro. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 912&fh=240

Not all are fish. Yesterday the Euro flattened the OBX today safely out to sea.

Yesterday GFS out to sea today across the OBX.

Let's face it 10 days should should be used for entertainment purposes only.

Maybe GFS was a little more accurate a day out on Debby. But, the day before it and the HWRF shared some mushrooms and sent Debby to die in Ga,

Euro and Icon sent a cat 2 up the NC coast. Never happened either.

Btw, CMC doesn't show anything because it lifts before 60w.

[Category5Kaiju]

Yep. Basically a bigger, badder Irene.

Hard to tell right now if we’re actually at risk here in the NE. We just have to wait for a TC to form to narrow down exactly when and where this’ll start turning north.

Would this be Sandy-level bad for us?

If we were to get hit by a Cat 1/2 like that, possibly worse. I remember a post or article from Crown Weather earlier this year where he expressed his concerns about a significant northeast hurricane strike. Since it’s been so long since the last significant hurricane landfall in New England (one of the storms from 1954 IIRC), there’s been a lot of population and tree growth, and said population (plus our electrical grid) is in no way prepared for a 90-100+ mph hurricane strike. Such a wind event will topple a lot of the now-mature trees and could cripple the grid for months. Worse wind damage than Sandy or Irene.

Fortunately, the northeast is a pretty difficult target for tropical systems, and it’s still way too far out to confidently say that we’ll see any impacts from future Ernesto. The odds of us getting that exact ensemble member track and intensity are very low.

I can't imagine what it would look like if we were to get a 1938-style hit in that region during the present day. Basically, a bona fide Category 3 cyclone.

On the flip side, yes, the angle that a tropical cyclone would need to go on to strike the Northeast, let alone as a hurricane (not an extratropical system), is very difficult to achieve.

[abajan]

The wave in question is gaining a bit of convection this afternoon:
https://i.postimg.cc/05wbn37L/goes16-ir-eatl.gif

Also, a large gyre is now becoming more evident from the movement of the said convection.

[Tekken_Guy]

Would this be Sandy-level bad for us?

If we were to get hit by a Cat 1/2 like that, possibly worse. I remember a post or article from Crown Weather earlier this year where he expressed his concerns about a significant northeast hurricane strike. Since it’s been so long since the last significant hurricane landfall in New England (one of the storms from 1954 IIRC), there’s been a lot of population and tree growth, and said population (plus our electrical grid) is in no way prepared for a 90-100+ mph hurricane strike. Such a wind event will topple a lot of the now-mature trees and could cripple the grid for months. Worse wind damage than Sandy or Irene.

Fortunately, the northeast is a pretty difficult target for tropical systems, and it’s still way too far out to confidently say that we’ll see any impacts from future Ernesto. The odds of us getting that exact ensemble member track and intensity are very low.

I can't imagine what it would look like if we were to get a 1938-style hit in that region during the present day. Basically, a bona fide Category 3 cyclone.

On the flip side, yes, the angle that a tropical cyclone would need to go on to strike the Northeast, let alone as a hurricane (not an extratropical system), is very difficult to achieve.

Yeah that’s why we usually only get weakened storms like Floyd and Irene. Everything needs to go wrong for the worst to happen.