ATL: ERNESTO - Models

[cycloneye]

Model runs here.

18z GEFS ensembles run.

[Blown Away]

That sharp N turn seems kinda of extreme… My guess is 98L will trend W into the GA Islands and a threat to Bahamas/SFL/Carolinas… JMHO

[SFLcane]

Talk about big spread like Debby plenty of land interaction which awaits this wave could make this just a tad tricky once again.

[Nimbus]

A few years ago we would assume that the models would recurve the storm tracks early as a default.
Not sure the long range accuracy has improved that much since then.

[Nuno]

A few years ago we would assume that the models would recurve the storm tracks early as a default.
Not sure the long range accuracy has improved that much since then.

I feel I trust models way less now mid-long range than I did years ago which wasn't much to begin with. I think the land interaction as others are saying is key.

Debby was supposed to curve north of the Greater Antilles and east of Florida and that was only a few days out and we saw that happened.

[BobHarlem]

0z icon is a good deal right of 12z and stays just offshore or scraping along the northern edge of the leewards. Only slightly right of the 18z. Winds up north of Puerto Rico, then starts to recurve more sharply north of Puerto Rico and never even gets close to the Turks and Caicos like it did on the 12z. Bermuda is much more likely than the mainland US here. Hope this is a trend for the rest of the models later tonight.

Although it's worth nothing there's 4-5 other areas beyond 98l on the last few frames of the icon. (3 of them on the screenshot below, 2 more to the right of that)

0z Icon Way right of 12z icon:

[toad strangler]

0z icon is a good deal right of 12z and stays just offshore or scraping along the northern edge of the leewards. Only slightly right of the 18z. Winds up north of Puerto Rico, then starts to recurve more sharply north of Puerto Rico and never even gets close to the Turks and Caicos like it did on the 12z. Hope this is a trend for the rest of the models later tonight.

Would be nice to finally see a 2024 Atlantic Basin Cyclone go the climo route and scoot on out with minimal land interaction.

[BobHarlem]

0z gfs is a little left (aka south) of 18z so far.

0z goes over Martinique in the Leewards rather than Guadalupe in the 18z, but by hour 108 is in a pretty similar spot to 18z.

After that it starts to go left more, but a bit weaker, looks like it may go over or ride the south side of Hispaniola this run, and smack into Haiti around hour 129.

Then exits that and heads toward the Turks and Caicos and starts into the Bahamas but turns north before it reaches the central Bahamas, much much weaker obviously than 18z, but still well right of 12z.

GFS has a noticable slowdown around hour 165 this run, then moves a bit ne.

But by hour 220 it's back in a very similar spot to 18z. Watching influence of an area in the mid west though, that may tug left or at least keep it going north, but ultimately fails to do so, winds up well right of 18z by hour 240 and out to sea (north of Bermuda)


Hispaniola Impact here on 0z gfs:

Exit the shredder here:

Gets through the Turks and Caicos as a weak system and parts of the Southeastern Bahamas, but goes north and eventually out to sea.





0z canadian is pure fish, it still curves it north before it reaches the islands, but it gets it a little closer to them this time, and still stays way east of Bermuda.

[LarryWx]

0Z UK: recurved 69-70W:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 20.9N 69.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.08.2024 120 20.9N 69.3W 1010 34
1200UTC 15.08.2024 132 23.5N 69.8W 1008 40
0000UTC 16.08.2024 144 25.6N 69.4W 1006 41
1200UTC 16.08.2024 156 27.2N 69.2W 1003 43
0000UTC 17.08.2024 168 28.4N 69.4W 1001 41

[Stratton23]

Im leaning towards a weaker system like the GFS shows, I just dont buy the CMC solution with a recurve that soon, I think we will see a correction closer towards the bahamas or close to, im thinking this gets further west than currently depicted because I think this wave will be slower to develop , just my opinion ,

[aspen]

0z gfs is a little left (aka south) of 18z so far.

0z goes over Martinique in the Leewards rather than Guadalupe in the 18z, but by hour 108 is in a pretty similar spot to 18z.

After that it starts to go left more, but a bit weaker, looks like it may go over or ride the south side of Hispaniola this run, and smack into Haiti around hour 129.

Then exits that and heads toward the Turks and Caicos and starts into the Bahamas but turns north before it reaches the central Bahamas, much much weaker obviously than 18z, but still well right of 12z.

GFS has a noticable slowdown around hour 165 this run, then moves a bit ne.


Hispaniola Impact here on 0z gfs:
https://i.imgur.com/2JU5ZOE.png
Exit the shredder here:
https://i.imgur.com/I36BSkq.png



0z canadian is pure fish, it still curves it north before it reaches the islands, but it gets it a little closer to them this time, and still stays way east of Bermuda.

The 0z GFS ends up so far south because it has two competing vortexes in the wave envelope. First the southern end tried to become dominant, then the north tries to take over, but by then it’s south of the Virgin Islands so it hits the Shredder. This is the first time any model run has shown such a development history for 98L.

[Kazmit]

0z GFS has quite a trough for this time of year. Starts moving due north around the Turks and Caicos as a depression. Seems odd.

[chaser1]

0z GFS has quite a trough for this time of year. Starts moving due north around the Turks and Caicos as a depression. Seems odd.

Exactly my thought That sudden deep trough dropping during what has been an otherwise very surpressed zonal Westerlies flow with rock solid low latitude ridging seemingly across the entire Atlantic basin, better yet ... to occur in AUGUST?? Its beyond odd - and remarkably lucky.

[LarryWx]

0Z Euro suite: little change from recent runs; a few E coast but most recurve E of E coast

[weeniepatrol]

00z EPS shifted west.

[weeniepatrol]

6z gfs much stronger. Cat 2 into Hispaniola.

[aspen]

6z GFS develops within 2-3 days and goes south of the Virgin Islands again. Stronger within 6 days than the 0z run, with a hurricane into the DR.

Seems like the GFS and Euro both agree on the storm recurving between the CONUS and Bermuda after impacting the NW Caribbean islands, which could put Atlantic Canada into play. They can’t seem to catch a break.

The first HWRF and HMON models have 98L going north of St Martin/Antigua/Barbuda as a hurricane, showing an earlier recurve than the GFS/Euro/ICON (although not as early as the CMC, which is allergic to 98L getting much further west than 60W).

[zzzh]

GFS 06/18z runs are considerably stronger than 00/12z runs, I wouldn't trust it too much.

[mantis83]

Based on the models, it could produce some decent ace points......

[BobHarlem]

On both the 0z and 6z GFS this system is an ace generator as it makes it all the way back to nearly the Azores intact once it does recurve.