2024 WPAC Season

[cycloneye]

The basin may have it's first tropical cyclone of 2024 by next weekend. This from the Guan NWS.

[doomhaMwx]

Japan plans to conduct aircraft reconnaissance missions into two typhoons this 2024, with each system getting two flights.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/jnmet/status/1800172024310161520

[Hayabusa]

 https://x.com/jnmet/status/1800172024310161520

A near term low formation is being shown by the GFS and Euro but no significant development (we'll see) and about the after June 20 possible development, GFS long range is showing it.

[Hayabusa]

We may finally get tropical development again by mid July if the GFS is right

[zzzh]

GFS literally thinks it's El Nino this year, it has WWB all the way to CPAC , EPS is a lot more reasonable with some slow development near the Philippines.

[dexterlabio]

^Well the ENSO state is neutral so anything Niño-like or Niña-like can happen, but I'm inclined to think that we're heading steadily to a weak La Niña setup.

[doomhaMwx]

Japan plans to conduct aircraft reconnaissance missions into two typhoons this 2024, with each system getting two flights.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GO8MehhbEAIyP2f?format=jpg&name=medium

Aside from recon, Japan is also currently deploying VM drones east of the Philippines to gather valuable data in typhoons, including winds and pressure!

 https://x.com/doomhaMwx/status/1809151477354766803

[zzzh]

https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRNWPForecastJuly2024.pdf
TSR July update. A bit less active than the May forecast.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/Yellow_Evan/status/1810311875730841987

[xtyphooncyclonex]

In all honesty, I would expect a more active season than first thought. We initially anticipated a weak-moderate La Nina to emerge at this point --- as aggressively pushed by the CFSv2 and others --- which would lead to a 2010-esque dead season.

We're already in mid-July and the base state seems to be a warm neutral setup. There could be a sudden burst of activity akin to 2016, but not enough to catapult us out of the below-average ACE streak since 2019. I expect it to happen in a CCKW/strong MJO in the middle of the season. However, convective activity and genesis these past two years has been... dead. The WPac can prove me wrong though..

I do hope land impacts would be as minimal as can be, and we could see a couple intense long-tracking fish amidst the predictions. The Pacific needs more, the land needs less.

[dexterlabio]

A careful look at the past 15 years will show us that PDO goes hand in hand with ENSO to influence TC activity in the Pacific. 2009 and 2023 are examples of moderate to strong +ENSO events that did not translate to above average typhoon seasons. Yes, a couple of intense typhoons were spawned but these were not enough to push those years into classic El Niño hyperactivity.

One can only imagine the level of inactivity this year will have with -PDO and the anticipated dive into -ENSO in the later months. While a surprise late season burst of activity like in 2016 is still a possibility, keep in mind that 2016 came out of a pretty solid +PDO year.

[Hurricane2022]

aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1811560376577712257

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS and CMC develop a mid-level TS just east of Visayas-Mindanao in around TAU 84-90.

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1812277509872070807

[Hurricane2022]

It is in my personal interest to know what drug GFS is snorting or smoking.

[Kingarabian]

It is in my personal interest to know what drug GFS is snorting or smoking.
https://imageshack.com/i/pmONNxb0p

Common bias when the MJO passes or is about to pass. But at least there's Gaemi to show for it.

[Hayabusa]

Looks like the next tropical development would occur above the tropic of cancer but the model solutions show a very if not extremely complicated setup...

[Hurricane2022]

It's an satellite error or the waters between China and Japan (subtropical region!!) are around 32 - 33 °C???