ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

[Teban54]

Second recon pass confirms winds are a lot more symmetrical. Extrapolated pressure 968.0 mb.

[Nimbus]

Bermuda may get lucky if Ernesto keeps tracking with more of an easterly component.
Trough #1 is rolling east so if Ernesto doesn't roll that way he will miss and stall south of Bermuda.

[Category5Kaiju]

A Category 2???? Before August 20????

Looks like 2013 really got thrown out--- oh wait, Beryl happened.

[cheezyWXguy]

I gotta be honest, I can’t make sense of this storm. The development of a much more symmetrical wind field strongly implies strengthening, and recon has observed this under the hood. But wow, the current appearance does not reflect that at all.

[Hammy]

I gotta be honest, I can’t make sense of this storm. The development of a much more symmetrical wind field strongly implies strengthening, and recon has observed this under the hood. But wow, the current appearance does not reflect that at all.

This was a 115 mph Cat 3 (Bonnie in 1998) so satellite can definitely be deceiving, especially if there's a broad enough core.

[Teban54]

I gotta be honest, I can’t make sense of this storm. The development of a much more symmetrical wind field strongly implies strengthening, and recon has observed this under the hood. But wow, the current appearance does not reflect that at all.

Since the IR was actually looking decent when recon was there, I also have to wonder if intensification slowed or stopped again just after recon left (and after NHC raised it to a Cat 2 based on recon).

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like another round of dry air issues. It's been awhile since I've seen a hurricane struggle this long with dry air. Might be the ugliest IR presentation I've ever seen for a Cat 2

[MarioProtVI]

Looks like another round of dry air issues. It's been awhile since I've seen a hurricane struggle this long with dry air. Might be the ugliest IR presentation I've ever seen for a Cat 2
https://i.imgur.com/hw2qUEZ.jpeg

Earl ‘98 wants a word

[LarryWx]

Since 1939 the wettest TC at Bermuda was in October of 1939, which produced 7.35”, which may be less than one would think. Thus the 6-12” amounts being forecasted by the NHC are quite ominous in relation to history:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Templat ... in_Bermuda

This very heavy rainfall risk is high due to a combo of expected slow movement nearby, large size, and (near) record warm SSTs possibly leading to extra high PWATs.

[Hurricane2022]

Looking good finally

[aspen]

Looks like another round of dry air issues. It's been awhile since I've seen a hurricane struggle this long with dry air. Might be the ugliest IR presentation I've ever seen for a Cat 2
https://i.imgur.com/hw2qUEZ.jpeg

I guess the large size of Ernesto’s circulation makes it more susceptible to pulling in dry air. Plus there’s non-negligible amounts of shear, which should increase over the next 24 hours.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Since 1939 the wettest TC at Bermuda was in October of 1939, which produced 7.35”, which may be less than one would think. Thus the 6-12” amounts being forecasted by the NHC are quite ominous in relation to history:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Templat ... in_Bermuda

This very heavy rainfall risk is high due to a combo of expected slow movement nearby, large size, and (near) record warm SSTs possibly leading to extra high PWATs.

Fortunately Bermuda is not particularly prone to flooding. We are all excited to fill our tanks.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Not strengthening very quickly but it has a large area of hurricane force winds to the east. Bermuda will have a decent stretch of 65kt+ winds. Luckily it shouldn’t be too bad as we are no stranger to direct cat 1-2 impacts- seems to occur every couple of years.

One thing that ACE and SS scale don’t reflect on well is diameter of strong winds/size of storm.

Use IKE! All my homies use IKE.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Dry air has been the bane of Ernesto's existence ever since it was a tropical wave.

[cheezyWXguy]

Dry air has been the bane of Ernesto's existence ever since it was a tropical wave.

And yet it appears to be at least as strong as it was last night based on recon. Real head scratcher

[Ubuntwo]

From today’s 5 AM discussion:

The environment near Ernesto could support some strengthening today.
However, the most noticeable change in the overnight intensity
guidance aids is that almost all of them are showing more shear
today than previously expected. This shear, combined with the
environmental dry air, has led to this cycle's intensity forecast
values being a lot lower than 6 h ago.

However,

After the
hurricane passes Bermuda, there could be a brief window for some
re-intensification in lighter shear conditions plus favorable trough
influences before Ernesto crosses into cool waters.

[Michele B]

Dry air has been the bane of Ernesto's existence ever since it was a tropical wave.

And yet it appears to be at least as strong as it was last night based on recon. Real head scratcher

So just imagine what a monster it would be without that dry air intruding in his growth cycles!

Thank God for the dry air. I know Bermuda is glad.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/hurricanetrack/status/1824413675823788238

[LarryWx]

Since 1939 the wettest TC at Bermuda was in October of 1939, which produced 7.35”, which may be less than one would think. Thus the 6-12” amounts being forecasted by the NHC are quite ominous in relation to history:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Templat ... in_Bermuda

This very heavy rainfall risk is high due to a combo of expected slow movement nearby, large size, and (near) record warm SSTs possibly leading to extra high PWATs.

Fortunately Bermuda is not particularly prone to flooding. We are all excited to fill our tanks.

I’ve been there and learned about the roofs collecting water from rain:

https://www.thisoldhouse.com/bermuda-ho ... old%20taps.