2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[jlauderdal]

I am willing to bet that by Labor Day weekend(August 31st) that somewhere in the CONUS will be either in an orange potential development cone or in the cone of uncertainty from a classified system.

If I am wrong I will give Storm2k $10...if anyone takes me up on the bet and I am right, they will donate $10...

Any takers?

Accepted, s2k wins either way and im good with that.

[Category5Kaiju]

It's worth pointing out that the CFS has been consistently showing the lid coming off between August 28 and September 2 and shows five storms (at least) developing in the MDR between August 28 and September 15, along with at least one (potentially two) storms in the Gulf of Mexico during that same time--it was also showing a very limited activity for August leading into it.

Iirc the CFS is known to be pretty good with detecting overall favorable/unfavorable conditions as well as the general timeframes of such. We'll see for sure, definitely trust that over the very fickle operational runs as of now if I had to pick.

[Jr0d]

After posting that I realized I haven't donated in way too long... hopefully there will be more who want to take the bet.

It does look like the Ensembles are heating up for early September so I would be surprised if I am wrong.. time will tell.

If I lose I still win because it means I have no iminent threat besides.

[MetroMike]

It's worth pointing out that the CFS has been consistently showing the lid coming off between August 28 and September 2 and shows five storms (at least) developing in the MDR between August 28 and September 15, along with at least one (potentially two) storms in the Gulf of Mexico during that same time--it was also showing a very limited activity for August leading into it.

Can you post the graphics for said system(s)? I cannot find what you are referring to.

[crownweather]

18Z GFS, FWIW, spins up a tropical cyclone in the south central Gulf of Mexico around September 5.


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[Blown Away]

18Z GFS, FWIW, spins up a tropical cyclone in the south central Gulf of Mexico around September 5.


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For what’s it’s worth, the GFS has consistently shown a big TW/moisture envelope around Labor Day lurking around from GOM/FL/Bahamas… So it wouldn’t surprise me as we close in on time if we see something more significant…

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/WeatherS76611/status/1826297524963176550

[TomballEd]

18Z GFS, FWIW, spins up a tropical cyclone in the south central Gulf of Mexico around September 5.


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For what’s it’s worth, the GFS has consistently shown a big TW/moisture envelope around Labor Day lurking around from GOM/FL/Bahamas… So it wouldn’t surprise me as we close in on time if we see something more significant…

Several 12Z GFS ensemble members at day 16 are seeing lows in the Gulf. Some GEPS support as well. Even some EPS support. I'll be watching it, but I'll also be seeing it if it stays at the very end of the operation and ensemble model runs. But the big 3 ensembles sort of liking it, going to be interesting.

[Frank P]

The season is not cancelled, it is only delayed a few weeks. It's also possible that the season will extend well into November especially for the FL and Caribbean Islands, no one can accurately predict what will happen... I will assume the season will pick up and be active until such time it is not... but by no means is this season cancelled... FYI I have a personal weather station linked to the Wunderground system... here is the link

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMSBILOX136
I'm trying to get one of my 13 outdoor cameras linked as well so you can see images of the beach in Biloxi during storm events
The weather station will come in handy if you want to see wind and BP on the beach in Biloxi in the event we were to be threatened by a storm this season

[Stratton23]

18z GEFS has a much stronger signal for gulf activity in the first week of September

[Stratton23]

The 00z CMC attempts to close off the gulf upper low and tries to develop a weak surface center/ low just before making landfall in texas at hour 78, ive been saying this could be a very tricky situation in which its possible we see a quick spin up into a very weak short lived TD, this is something models can have trouble catching. on to

[Stratton23]

Tropical trouble in the gulf next week? Now the 00z GFS is getting really interesting

[Teban54]

Hmm...

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Finally some signs of life as the 00z CMC spins up a system from the monsoon trough breaking down, and also has a tropical wave moving off the African coast towards the end of the run. Worth seeing if this is the start of something, especially within the rest of the guidance.

[MarioProtVI]

Finally some signs of life as the 00z CMC spins up a system from the monsoon trough breaking down, and also has a tropical wave moving off the African coast towards the end of the run. Worth seeing if this is the start of something, especially within the rest of the guidance.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8ea78cf1beaefb049b8b358284875afba88efa886408736d327ed2d1b7e66e0e.gif

Euro-AI and ICON have this feature around the same timeframe so maybe this is legit. Need to see consistency though instead of it dropping it the next run at 12z.

[Hammy]

Finally some signs of life as the 00z CMC spins up a system from the monsoon trough breaking down, and also has a tropical wave moving off the African coast towards the end of the run. Worth seeing if this is the start of something, especially within the rest of the guidance.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8ea78cf1beaefb049b8b358284875afba88efa886408736d327ed2d1b7e66e0e.gif

It's definitely worth noting the Canadian was the first one to sniff out Beryl, which also formed from the monsoonal breakdown

[emeraldislenc]

I hope we can all get back to global model discussions and leave our egos to another platform!

[Weathertracker96]

06GFS is showing activity this morning in Gulf & Caribbean

[TomballEd]

The 0Z/6Z GFS system next week on the model is being badly sheared with dry air being pushed into the low and will struggle to be below 1010 mb. A slight repositioning of the entire jet pattern would mean lower shear and a system that might strengthen over 30C water.

6Z ensembles have some members supporting the op, although none are very strong, GEPS has a 1011 and 1014 mb low as well. As modeled not making much rain IMBY, been upper 90s and low 100s since Beryl and little rain, a weak rainmaker would be perfect.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Season cancelled: cancelled