Tropical Wave in Bay of Campeche (Is Invest 91L)

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Way too early to predict track for a system that hasn't even formed especially with the models struggling this year. Anyone know why?

Models haven’t struggled. Ernesto forecasts were accurate within 20 miles five days out.

[SFLcane]

Way too early to predict track for a system that hasn't even formed especially with the models struggling this year. Anyone know why?

Overall pattern to be frank is indeed october like its actually been that way for weeks.

[Hammy]

Way too early to predict track for a system that hasn't even formed especially with the models struggling this year. Anyone know why?

Models haven’t struggled. Ernesto forecasts were accurate within 20 miles five days out.

After it formed, yes. We're talking about something right now that hasn't even formed, let alone has a trackable center.

[Ubuntwo]

Way too early to predict track for a system that hasn't even formed especially with the models struggling this year. Anyone know why?

Overall pattern to be frank is indeed october like its actually been that way for weeks.

I disagree as the high latitude ITCZ, prevalence of SAL, and reversed upper level winds off Africa the basin was struggling with are more in line with an exaggerated August climo.

[SFLcane]

Way too early to predict track for a system that hasn't even formed especially with the models struggling this year. Anyone know why?

Overall pattern to be frank is indeed october like its actually been that way for weeks.

I disagree as the high latitude ITCZ, prevalence of SAL, and reversed upper level winds off Africa the basin was struggling with are more in line with an exaggerated August climo.

eh, conus pattern i meant. Both GFS/EURO want to remove that East Coast ridge all together.

[LarryWx]

Way too early to predict track for a system that hasn't even formed especially with the models struggling this year. Anyone know why?

Overall pattern to be frank is indeed october like its actually been that way for weeks.

I disagree as the high latitude ITCZ, prevalence of SAL, and reversed upper level winds off Africa the basin was struggling with are more in line with an exaggerated August climo.

Adrian may be talking more about the pattern over the E US, which one tweet noted is El Ninoish while the tropics are La Ninaish. Maybe he can clarify.

Edit: lol Adrian already had clarified when I was typing this post.

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1829603076250223048

[MarioProtVI]

One of the ensembles has a whopping 909 Cat 5 slamming the Yucatán in 204h…

[cheezyWXguy]

 https://x.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1829603076250223048

Yeah the 12z eps is pretty gung-ho on the westward tracks, and a number of the members get pretty strong

[tolakram]

Euro now also going into the gulf.

[Spacecoast]

How do we know when the models are struggling?
They are computer programs that input a set of parameters, and output a forecast.
I think what everyone means is that 'models have generated many false negatives' , and have failed to predict genesis on multiple occasions this year.

There have only been 5 NS so far. Have the models failed to forecast TC formation for these 5 NS sufficiently in advance compared to any other season?
I'm not sure. Perhaps the storms are doing the struggling.

[SFLcane]

12z eps..

[IcyTundra]

Way too early to predict track for a system that hasn't even formed especially with the models struggling this year. Anyone know why?

Overall pattern to be frank is indeed october like its actually been that way for weeks.

There will probably be a trough just depends how deep it digs down.

[LarryWx]

Not to be ignored and thus for the record: the 12Z JMA (model did about as well as ICON with Beryl TX landfall though I still don’t consider it one of better models) has a strengthening 998 mb TS headed NW toward the Yucatan Channel at 192.

[Nimbus]

Euro now also going into the gulf.

https://i.imgur.com/YZLFX8S.png

Slow down in the western Caribbean near 8 days on that run, bad news for gulf coast, probably east of NOLA with that upper air setup.

[Ubuntwo]

Overall pattern to be frank is indeed october like its actually been that way for weeks.

I disagree as the high latitude ITCZ, prevalence of SAL, and reversed upper level winds off Africa the basin was struggling with are more in line with an exaggerated August climo.

eh, conus pattern i meant. Both GFS/EURO want to remove that East Coast ridge all together.

Gotcha. A trough dipping down into the Gulf/SE region isn't too out of season for early Sept... Irma, Dorian, Idalia just for a few recent cases were all tugged north around this time of year. Now early August as with Charley? Nuts.

[Ubuntwo]

I see at least two-thirds of EPS members developing this wave at some point. The great majority of these eventually become cat 2+ hurricanes - definitely an intensity uptick this cycle. Some do not develop in the Caribbean and get trapped in the BoC under weak steering flow before a trough dips down and sparks development/north motion. The third not developing do so mostly as a result of issues in the trough breakdown itself, not environmental factors.

[Teban54]

For the first time that I remember, the wave's vortmaxes at various levels are all fairly close to each other, centered at around 47W. Let's see if this continues.



Convection is somewhat anemic, but it's approaching DMIN where it is. Rotation is very obvious (though there do seem to be other vorts around).

[SFLcane]

Lots of 505 ERRORS today on S2K.

[AutoPenalti]

Lots of 505 ERRORS today on S2K.

Server overload with the latest models? Lol