Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic (0/0)

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Another tropical wave just emerging off the coast of Africa is
currently associated with an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible
through the middle portion of next week as it moves slowly to the
west-northwest or northwest over the Eastern Tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[Hurricane2022]

Welcome Gordon!!

[Teban54]

This list counts all Eastern Atlantic lows on roughly 9/7. Some GEFS runs have over 100% of members developing, which suggests some members may see two lows at the same time (possibly from two different waves).

Today's 18z EPS actually provides us a clue as to why some members develop two lows: Two waves seem to be advancing west in quick succession, and global models that did develop this wanted to consolidate them into a single system. (This also explains the dropping support from operational runs, as the consolidation process takes too long and is disrupted by shear and/or dry air.) It's still hard to distinguish the waves due to high variance (particularly with GEFS), so I'm just counting all lows regardless of which wave they're showing.

GEFS member low pressure counts (±2, out of 31):

• 18z 8/29: 32 (103%)
• 12z 8/29: 28 (90%)
• 6z 8/29: 27 (87%)
• 0z 8/29: 35 (113%)
• 18z 8/28: 35 (113%)
• 12z 8/28: 22 (71%)
• 6z 8/28: 23 (74%)
• 0z 8/28: 22 (71%)

EPS member low pressure counts (±3, out of 51):

• 18z 8/29 (out to 144 hrs only): 40 (78%, some may not be TCs)
• 12z 8/29: 39 (76%)
• 6z 8/29 (out to 144 hrs only): 32 (63%, some may not be TCs)
• 0z 8/29: 32 (63%, some may not be TCs)
• 18z 8/28 (out to 144 hrs only): 26 (51%)
• 12z 8/28: 37 (73%)
• 6z 8/28 (out to 144 hrs only): 22 (43%)
• 0z 8/28: 31 (61%)

Keep in mind these are just low pressure centers and some may not actually be TCs, especially on the 6z and 18z Euro runs. On the other hand, 6z and 18z Euro may have additional members develop beyond 144 hrs.

[Teban54]

Meanwhile... The wave has sustained a big convective blob near the "center" for a few hours now. I'm not sure if this was expected, but 18z GFS's simulated IR satellite showed much more anemic convection at this time.

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Another tropical wave between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing minimal shower and thunderstorm
activity. Some slow development of this system is possible through
late next week while it moves slowly to the west-northwest over the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

Down to 10%.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Another tropical wave located just to the west of the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Development, if any, should be slow to occur while the system moves
slowly westward to west-northwestward over the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic through late next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

[Teban54]

Is there reason why GOES-16 meso sector 1 is currently placed on this wave (and has been for a while now), despite lowering chances of development?

[ChrisH-UK]

Still an area of broad rotation,looks like the conditions in the area like shear are hampering its development at this moment.

[cycloneye]

Bye.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Another tropical wave located just to the west of the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Development is no longer expected due to unfavorable environmental
conditions as the tropical wave moves westward to west-northwestward
over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

[Teban54]

Can I reuse this thread since the wave still exists (even though not on the NHC TWO anymore)? If that's ok, mods please change the title to Central Atlantic. If not, feel free to move it to a new thread.

Anyway, some interesting trends on this wave recently. A circulation may be developing at 13N 36W, and the area had also generated a few convective bursts since last night, ranging from pulsing to persistent.



Recent GFS runs have trended stronger with it this run, although it still doesn't reach anything more than a TD/minimum TS. I'm wondering if the model is seeing some of these trends.

(Edit: Oof, just after I posted this, 12z GFS came in less organized than 0z and 6z.)

[cycloneye]

Is ok to continue this thread active. Only edited the title.

[drezee]

 https://x.com/andretrotter/status/1830620201261433208

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/andretrotter/status/1830620201261433208

I'm guessing he based it on the increased GEFS support (and some hints on operational GFS). With the caveat that taking a few ensemble members verbatim is usually a bad idea, here's what 12z GEFS has from this wave: (The lows at the bottom right corner are from the Eastern Atlantic 10/40)

[drezee]

 https://x.com/andretrotter/status/1830620201261433208

I'm guessing he based it on the increased GEFS support (and some hints on operational GFS). With the caveat that taking a few ensemble members verbatim is usually a bad idea, here's what 12z GEFS has from this wave: (The lows at the bottom right corner are from the Eastern Atlantic 10/40)

https://i.postimg.cc/hGGkBLjN/image.png

That post was 1054AM ET before 12z came out....

[Hurricaneman]

Honestly I wouldn’t be surprised if this gets lemoned again at 8

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/andretrotter/status/1830620201261433208

I'm guessing he based it on the increased GEFS support (and some hints on operational GFS). With the caveat that taking a few ensemble members verbatim is usually a bad idea, here's what 12z GEFS has from this wave: (The lows at the bottom right corner are from the Eastern Atlantic 10/40)

https://i.postimg.cc/hGGkBLjN/image.png

That post was 1054AM ET before 12z came out....

Fair point, but 0z GEFS showed very similar solutions. (It might make even more sense if the comment was before 12z, because 12z and 18z operational GFS have trended weaker.)

[drezee]

 https://x.com/andretrotter/status/1830737606646341685

[cycloneye]

This has a good deal of lightning flashes. (105)

[floridasun]

area starting look better tonight it got some models supports let see 2am outlook say

[tiger_deF]

This AOI is by far the most interesting thing happening in the Atlantic IMO. Vorticity is starting to increase, convection has been persistent and deep for most of the day instead of puffing out of existence, and the environment should be decently favorable over the next few days. The killer modeled ULL and the northern position of the wave are likely reducing interest, but the path is not set in stone since models have only recently begun showing development at all, and an organized system might be able to survive conditions that would kill an unorganized wave.