Tropical Wave in Bay of Campeche (Is Invest 91L)

[Ivanhater]

Ensembles mostly Louisiana to east of Florida


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[Nimbus]

Ensembles mostly Louisiana to east of Florida
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240901/01680edb4040a81eecd37df7f74f9900.jpg

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Must be at least one scenario where the shear tracks it just west of Puerto Rico as a weak 985 system.

[Stratton23]

the entire gulf coast should be watching, will be interesting to see if the 00z Runs come in more aggressive

[Blown Away]

If you consider the entire GOM as consistency, than 18z GEFS are correct. Flopping from MX, TX, LA, Panhandle, and throw in a few open wave runs, not very telling to me…

[Teban54]

Tropical Tidbits has loaded 18z EC-Fast out to 72 hrs. It doesn't look like the system is notably better organized than 12z Euro, but EC-Fast does have lower resolution that make the vorticity more washed out than the full-res runs would suggest. Without having access to the full run myself, I'd guess it would show vorticity a hair better than 12z, but nothing compared to the drastic difference between 18z and 12z GFS.

I wouldn't say being weak in the Caribbean rules out a strong hurricane in the Gulf, though. Recent model runs seem to suggest that if the system emerges over the Gulf as a coherent TC (even just a TS), it will bomb out. Scenarios in which this doesn't happen include if a TC still had not formed by the time it enters the Gulf, or if the system gets pushed west and crashes into Central America (low intensity can result in this, but so can a strong ridge). However, neither precludes a mid-range TS from entering the Gulf on a NW track and intensifying, even if the starting point isn't nearly as high as 18z GFS.

[Ivanhater]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/jjRTdsxp/IMG-0032.jpg [/url]

If you consider the entire GOM as consistency, than 18z GEFS are correct. Flopping from MX, TX, LA, Panhandle, and throw in a few open wave runs, not very telling to me…

Well, if you look deeper into it, the Mexico and Texas solutions are either not developing or not developing until after the Yucatan.

The Louisiana to Florida are for the runs that develop when it's stronger in the Caribbean. The upper level pattern has been pretty consistent. The question of which solution pans out is how early/late it develops

[Blown Away]

At 8pm update, the NHC did expand their cone E and N again, so the 18z GFS run is being considered IMO…

[Frank P]

here are the 18Z GFS ensembles at hour 240.

[Steve]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/jjRTdsxp/IMG-0032.jpg [/url]

If you consider the entire GOM as consistency, than 18z GEFS are correct. Flopping from MX, TX, LA, Panhandle, and throw in a few open wave runs, not very telling to me…

That’s valid for a week from next Tuesday.

[LarryWx]

Tropical Tidbits has loaded 18z EC-Fast out to 72 hrs. It doesn't look like the system is notably better organized than 12z Euro, but EC-Fast does have lower resolution that make the vorticity more washed out than the full-res runs would suggest. Without having access to the full run myself, I'd guess it would show vorticity a hair better than 12z, but nothing compared to the drastic difference between 18z and 12z GFS.

I wouldn't say being weak in the Caribbean rules out a strong hurricane in the Gulf, though. Recent model runs seem to suggest that if the system emerges over the Gulf as a coherent TC (even just a TS), it will bomb out. Scenarios in which this doesn't happen include if a TC still had not formed by the time it enters the Gulf, or if the system gets pushed west and crashes into Central America (low intensity can result in this, but so can a strong ridge). However, neither precludes a mid-range TS from entering the Gulf on a NW track and intensifying, even if the starting point isn't nearly as high as 18z GFS.

The 18Z EPS mean at 144 (end) in the W Car is fwiw a bit weaker than the 12Z 150 and is the weakest of today’s runs for that time.

[gatorcane]

The GFS has it suddenly consolidating in the Eastern Caribbean which seems unlikely. That area is typically hostile for development due to easterly trades and inflow inhibited due to close proximity to South America, unless a system is already formed prior to entering that region.

[AtlanticWind]

This is a spot (between 50 and 60 w) waves can quickly burst convection which
I think could change the model outputs over the next 24 hours or so.

[Teban54]

There hasn't been a lot of convection so far tonight, but the ones that did fire (especially to the north) are now actually rotating around the center for the first time, instead of just being a disorganized mess. Also, the competing vorts seem to be almost gone.

[869MB]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1830056275951911249

[Teban54]

Sounds like the difference between the stronger/weaker tracks mostly has to do with short-term organization (aside from model biases):
 https://x.com/DCAreaWx/status/1830058845789413772

A lot of the uncertainty regarding our monsoon trough-embedded wave stems from the fact that the low-levels become less favorable for TC genesis in a couple days. The upper-levels are rather favorable, however. This creates an “all or nothing” type scenario, where if we get TCG in the next few days, the ceiling for it should be pretty high as a vortex will be present. If not, then a vortex will struggle to close off for a while (Caribbean trades).

[chaser1]

Show me the money 'cuz I'm still not seeing it

1) Is it slightly better organized? Perhaps but it's nominal organization lacks consistency.
2) CDO? Hardly any Central co-located convection (to say nothing about persistence of convection.
3) Model support? Not the type I'm looking for. Show me 4 GFS model runs minimumly depicting a TD in the Caribbean, and one or more other corroborating global model output for it to mean something.

Tomorrow it may prove its worth its NHC 50% chance of development- or it could go poof

[Teban54]

Show me the money 'cuz I'm still not seeing it

1) Is it slightly better organized? Perhaps but it's nominal organization lacks consistency.
2) CDO? Hardly any Central co-located convection (to say nothing about persistence of convection.
3) Model support? Not the type I'm looking for. Show me 4 GFS model runs minimumly depicting a TD in the Caribbean, and one or more other corroborating global model output for it to mean something.

Tomorrow it may prove its worth its NHC 50% chance of development- or it could go poof

There's a reason why the 50% chance of development is for 7 days and not 2 days. They don't expect it to blow up into a TD just yet, and in fact that scenario is only given a 10% chance.

Meanwhile, its 500 mb vorticity is already showing a clear improvement from 6-12 hours ago, now clearly being a single lobe that's stacked at all levels, which is something that can't be said over the past 2 days. Models do seem to think the vorticity will open back up once the system starts accelerating to the west, but we'll see.

[cycloneye]

Josh paying atention.

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1830065220250976646

[mantis83]

0Z icon says nope, nothing to see here......

[Stratton23]

Mantis83 uh yeah no, this is definitely a troll comment, the ICON absolutely has something, a closed low developing in the western caribbean