Tropical Wave in Bay of Campeche (Is Invest 91L)

[Frank P]

and the 06z GFS run gets buried in Mexico as a Cat 1.
https://i.ibb.co/txYTKXH/gfs-mslp-wind-watl-50.png
Meanwhile the GFS develops another system off the NW gulf coast of FL then and swings up the east coast brushing Boston and turns NE into the NH and Maine as a hurricane
https://i.ibb.co/rvW2qnN/gfs-mslp-wind-neus-58.png

That looks like 955mb, which would likely (although pressure/wind relationship isn't constant*, and global model MSLP can never be taken literally) be stronger than Cat. 1.

*Could be high-end Cat. 4 in a tightly wound RI-er like Charley, or high-end Cat. 1/low 2 in a sprawling system with a broad gradient like Ike or Sandy.

Sorry, I thought that pressure was 985, not 955… should have gotten a large image to see it. Thanks

[Stormlover70]

Doubting this will even develop.

[NDG]

Well, ensembles are trending up once again with the AOI in the eastern Caribbean developing once it gets to the western Caribbean, but still fairly low amount of them around 25% or so.
Most Euro ensembles take it into C.A. while the GEFS ensembles are a little further north but all over the board. One thing for sure that shear is going to be ripping across the northern gulf this weekend with the deep trough coming down.




Latest 06z EC ensembles, a few more of them, now in the 30-40% range.

[otowntiger]

Doubting this will even develop.

Me too. Or at least nothing of much consequence the way it looks now.

[wxman57]

First Labor Day off in decades for me. I'm wondering if my numbers for the office contest may be too high at 17/8/4. Just 8 days from the half-way point in a typical season - half the storms before then and half after. Instability in the MDR is close to what we'd typically see in winter - very stable. This is fine with me. I certainly don't want another hurricane in the Gulf anytime soon. Maybe we can get past the mid-point with only 5 named storms?

Tropical Atlantic Instability:
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_tat_THDV.gif

[LarryWx]

First Labor Day off in decades for me. I'm wondering if my numbers for the office contest may be too high at 17/8/4. Just 8 days from the half-way point in a typical season - half the storms before then and half after. Instability in the MDR is close to what we'd typically see in winter - very stable. This is fine with me. I certainly don't want another hurricane in the Gulf anytime soon. Maybe we can get past the mid-point with only 5 named storms?

Tropical Atlantic Instability:
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_tat_THDV.gif

Wow, I didn’t realize that it has been and still is that low!
That’s near the normal level for April! It’s no wonder it is so quiet.

[otowntiger]

First Labor Day off in decades for me. I'm wondering if my numbers for the office contest may be too high at 17/8/4. Just 8 days from the half-way point in a typical season - half the storms before then and half after. Instability in the MDR is close to what we'd typically see in winter - very stable. This is fine with me. I certainly don't want another hurricane in the Gulf anytime soon. Maybe we can get past the mid-point with only 5 named storms?

Tropical Atlantic Instability:
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_tat_THDV.gif

I think there is a good chance the way it looks now for us to make it to the peak of season without any more named storms. (i.e. the next 8 days) Congrats on having Labor Day off! If we are to have 12 more named storms before end of season things are going to need to change quickly!

[otowntiger]

First Labor Day off in decades for me. I'm wondering if my numbers for the office contest may be too high at 17/8/4. Just 8 days from the half-way point in a typical season - half the storms before then and half after. Instability in the MDR is close to what we'd typically see in winter - very stable. This is fine with me. I certainly don't want another hurricane in the Gulf anytime soon. Maybe we can get past the mid-point with only 5 named storms?

Tropical Atlantic Instability:
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_tat_THDV.gif

I think there is a good chance the way it looks now for us to make it to the peak of season without any more named storms (i.e. in the next 8 days) Congrats on having Labor Day off! If we are to have 12 more named storms before end of season things are going to need to change quickly!

[Frank P]

The wave appears to be at least trying to develop this morning.. hints a broad rotation and convection more concentrated and building. Then again, I could be beating a dead horse with this system.

[ChrisH-UK]

and the 06z GFS run gets buried in Mexico as a Cat 1.
https://i.ibb.co/txYTKXH/gfs-mslp-wind-watl-50.png
Meanwhile the GFS develops another system off the NW gulf coast of FL then and swings up the east coast brushing Boston and turns NE into the NH and Maine as a hurricane
https://i.ibb.co/rvW2qnN/gfs-mslp-wind-neus-58.png

The 2 systems might be the same, I was looking at something else when I saw this on the GFS



I was like hmm what are you thinking. so looked at the ensembles and lo and behold the ensambles split one going to Mexico and the other going to Florida. Looks like the GFS went with a 50/50 and made 2 out of one.

[TomballEd]

There are still a few strong outliers that come into the Gulf, it isn't a done deal it never develops or is a weak system into Mexico. But the majority of the ensembles say nothing big is happening. I suppose 40% there is a TC (most likely a TD or minimal TS) is about right.

Boiler plate caution about how I could be wrong. Vis satellite- I can barely see a weak wave. CIMSS shows the mid level vort is lagging behind the weak low level vort.

[MarioProtVI]

First Labor Day off in decades for me. I'm wondering if my numbers for the office contest may be too high at 17/8/4. Just 8 days from the half-way point in a typical season - half the storms before then and half after. Instability in the MDR is close to what we'd typically see in winter - very stable. This is fine with me. I certainly don't want another hurricane in the Gulf anytime soon. Maybe we can get past the mid-point with only 5 named storms?

Tropical Atlantic Instability:
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_tat_THDV.gif

That chart has been broken for roughly 7 years now and has been proven so in the past.

[DunedinDave]

For the sake of argument, lets say we get 0 named storms in the next week (which seems quite possible).

When was the last time we didn’t have one single new Named storm between Aug 1 and Sept 10?

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Doubting this will even develop.

42 pages of comments (almost 834 posts!) for an open wave that may remain an open wave forever. This is not the record-breaking hyperactive season we were promised!

[GalvestonDuck]

Doubting this will even develop.

42 pages of comments (almost 834 posts!) for an open wave that may remain an open wave forever. This is not the record-breaking hyperactive season we were promised!

To be fair, we weren’t promised anything. Beryl was enough for me, thank you. I’m not heartbroken if we don’t get the forecast number of storms this year.

[LarryWx]

For the sake of argument, lets say we get 0 named storms in the next week (which seems quite possible).

When was the last time we didn’t have one single new Named storm between Aug 1 and Sept 10?

You must mean between Aug 12 (Ernesto) and Sept 10. But even so, Sept 10 is still an eternity away with Sept 1-10 at peak. There’s so much uncertainty over the next 9 days.

[Teban54]

CIMSS shows the mid level vort is lagging behind the weak low level vort.

Interestingly, that's exactly what almost every recent GFS run suggested. The model shows the distance between low-level and mid-level vorts will only increase, before the old low-level vort eventually crashes into Central America and a "new" low-level vort develops directly underneath the mid-level structure. ("New" is in quotes, because GFS does seem to keep some low-level vorticity roughly where the mid-level vort is.) That's why GFS moves the system -- or more precisely, the mid-level signature -- much more slowly than other models.

Comparing 850 mb vs. 500 mb on the 6z GFS run at 0z on September 4, where you can see mid-level vorticity centered around 67W, and low-level vorticity stretched out all the way from Lesser Antilles to Jamaica:

(Edit: 12z GFS started while I was writing this comment, but the point still applies)



Same time on 6z Euro, where low-level vorticity is similarly spread out, but so is mid-level vorticity that's centered more around 70W:

[DunedinDave]

For the sake of argument, lets say we get 0 named storms in the next week (which seems quite possible).

When was the last time we didn’t have one single new Named storm between Aug 1 and Sept 10?

You must mean between Aug 12 (Ernesto) and Sept 10. But even so, Sept 10 is still an eternity away with Sept 1-10 at peak. There’s so much uncertainty over the next 9 days.

My bad. I forgot about Ernesto. Was thinking Debby. Still, curious how often we get a goose egg the month leading up to peak day.

[TomballEd]

ICON still doing the thing with whatever is left from the 40% wave gets pulled up towards the weakness remaining from the 10% wave and is a 1005 mb low in the W. Gulf at 180 hours. I know the ICON had some runs much closer to the final result than the respected models for Beryl, but still, the main advantage is it runs earlier. (Because its initialization scheme is simpler?). Katrina formed from the merger of two systems, but I suspect the ICON is wrong. On work nights, the only 0Z model before bedtime, so I'll keep watching. I am still checking this thread mainly because ensembles of the better models still suggest a possibility. As mentioned, 40% for at least a TD, that is probably close.

The 6Z GEFS Florida storm is a clear outlier, the 2 mainland Mexican hurricanes are in the vicinity of the other GFS ensemble runs. New GFS/GEFS, as mentioned, running. I won't jump onboard hard on a single 0Z/12Z run because of how poorly the system presents on satellite, but I'm always open to a trend across multiple model cycles. But for now, bearish, sell, Mortimer, sell.

[TomballEd]

ICON still doing the thing with whatever is left from the 40% wave gets pulled up towards the weakness remaining from the 10% wave and is a 1005 mb low in the W. Gulf at 180 hours. I know the ICON had some runs much closer to the final result than the respected models for Beryl, but still, the main advantage is it runs earlier. (Because its initialization scheme is simpler?). Katrina formed from the merger of two systems, but I suspect the ICON is wrong. On work nights, the only 0Z model before bedtime, so I'll keep watching. I am still checking this thread mainly because ensembles of the better models still suggest a possibility. As mentioned, 40% for at least a TD, that is probably close.

The 6Z GEFS Florida storm is a clear outlier, the 2 mainland Mexican hurricanes are in the vicinity of the other GFS ensemble runs. New GFS/GEFS, as mentioned, running. I won't jump onboard hard on a single 0Z/12Z run because of how poorly the system presents on satellite, but I'm always open to a trend across multiple model cycles. But for now, bearish, sell, Mortimer, sell.

The new GFS doesn't have to be too much stronger and further N to allow a track into the Gulf, although at 6 days out, it looks too weak and too far south to feel the trough.