Low pressure trough in the Central Atlantic/Tropical Wave Near the Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 93L)

[MarioProtVI]

Euro broadens this out to hell and basically drops it because it’s too weak to reorganize.

Seems like 00z Euro was a blip because EPS is still pretty active with it..

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Euro broadens this out to hell and basically drops it because it’s too weak to reorganize.

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/857017650042503178/1282686492128575589/image0.png?ex=66e04262&is=66def0e2&hm=b13f7bc6363715c85fdcc7849d6ad6e12e074d57d315b6ae1d2ac1fcfeb6a294&

Seems like 00z Euro was a blip because EPS is still pretty active with it..

Looks like most ensemble members don’t develop it.

[Teban54]

The last two GFS runs have shown the Africa wave becoming the dominant system by far, forming into a TC within just 24-36 hours. (Edit: The run eventually recurves it around 40W, similar to Helene 2018.)



Considering that the wave (now just offshore Africa) has the strongest vorticity and deepest convection, this may not be bogus. However, GFS is still alone in this solution.

[Teban54]

You can see an exposed LLC in this eastern part of the trough where NHC's X is. It's also confirmed by ASCAT this morning , and even better defined than 92L. Some scattered convection has tried developing near the LLC in recent frames.

[AutoPenalti]

FWIW, 12z GEFS coming in further south.

[Teban54]

Up to 30/70.

2. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands is expected to merge in a couple of days
with a strong tropical wave currently near the coast of western
Africa. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression will likely
form during the middle to latter part of this week while the system
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[Teban54]

FWIW, 12z GEFS coming in further south.
https://i.postimg.cc/7YmshncQ/ezgif-com-animated-gif-maker-6.gif

12z GEFS still shows a sharp recurve to the NE in the end, even though most members definitely reach further west than 6z before recurving. But if this is any kind of a trend, it would make you wonder what if it misses the trough.

Euro broadens this out to hell and basically drops it because it’s too weak to reorganize.

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/857017650042503178/1282686492128575589/image0.png?ex=66e04262&is=66def0e2&hm=b13f7bc6363715c85fdcc7849d6ad6e12e074d57d315b6ae1d2ac1fcfeb6a294&

Seems like 00z Euro was a blip because EPS is still pretty active with it..

Not only did 0z Euro actually develop it at the tail end of the run, but 12z Euro trended stronger, continuing to show that even if the system takes its sweet time consolidating in eastern Atlantic, it can still bomb out further west. However, both 12z Euro and 0z EPS show formation more in Central Atlantic.

It's almost ironic how GFS's and Euro's solutions have completely flipped from what they were initially showing. Days ago, Euro had a TD immediately off the coast of Africa, and GFS only had it forming in Central Atlantic (with an overall track much further west than model consensus now). Now it's the reverse.

[Teban54]

You can see this system on HAFS Parent runs for 92L, which is pretty cool.

18z HAFS-A and B have this as a strong TS or weak C1 moving west. 12z runs were even stronger.



Here's how the systems look like now. Both the eastern half of the trough and the new wave (now just offshore Africa) are generating decent levels of convection, and the former also has a LLC displaced to the east.

[Teban54]

Hmm, 0z GFS has it miss the trough that had been picking up the storm on every model and every run recently, and sends it on a continued NW track.

[Teban54]

The two areas in question. Looks like the LLC in the trough has been able to sustain convection, albeit displaced.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Hmm, 0z GFS has it miss the trough that had been picking up the storm on every model and every run recently, and sends it on a continued NW track.

https://i.postimg.cc/XvMHcSP1/gfs-mslp-pcpn-atl-fh6-384.gif

That would be unfortunate.

[ChrisH-UK]

It's looking quite nice this morning.

Source - https://col.st/cq2aY

[Category5Kaiju]

Hmm, 0z GFS has it miss the trough that had been picking up the storm on every model and every run recently, and sends it on a continued NW track.

https://i.postimg.cc/XvMHcSP1/gfs-mslp-pcpn-atl-fh6-384.gif

Very Florence-like. Tried to recurve, stops and meanders as a strong storm in the mid-Atlantic, then tries again but it looks to be too late.

[Teban54]

Are we sure the wave near Cabo Verde isn't close to a TD or already one?

[cycloneye]

2 PM:

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure over the eastern tropical Atlantic is
producing a large but disorganized area of showers and
thunderstorms from near the Cabo Verde Islands extending
southwestward for several hundred miles. Environmental conditions
appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression will likely form during the latter part of this
week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

Invest 93L is up