ATL: FRANCINE - Remnants - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

86kt FL in eastern quad. SFMR a little low but you could probably justify an increase to 70kts. 0.9 FL reduction would support 75kts

[CrazyC83]

The SFMR has not yet responded, but if it does, that would support 75-80 kt.

[Teban54]

The Mexican Plateau's dry air may have made a big difference all along - without it, who knows what we would be dealing with now. I know quite a few storms have weakened in that area upon approach too due to dry air.

Yes- it appears that this storm is struggling and just barely made it to hurricane status. Sure, I didn’t think it would make it. Hopefully this is as strong as it gets before it begins succumbing to the forecasted upcoming shear before landfall.

And a whole 20 minutes later, the "struggling" Francine managed to strengthen past the "barely hurricane" status by at least 5 kts, if not more.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Definitely going to be an interesting night with this one... might make it past the border of Cat 2 overnight based on that recon pass.

[ElectricStorm]

Drop 980/12 supports 979mb, lowest it's been so far

[Teban54]

Drop 980/12 supports 979mb, lowest it's been so far

The eye is also drying out, as its 850 mb relative humidity is at 69%, the lowest of all eye drops so far.

[Frank P]

Looking at the IR and Radar images she looks better than earlier this evening.

[Kazmit]

90kt FL winds… this thing is on its way to cat 2.

[Teban54]

VDM reports a 40 nm eye, and, in their own words:

EYEWALL HAS 75 PERCENT COVERAGE AROUND THE EYE AND IS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE ORGANIZED THAN ON PREVIOUS PASS

I do wonder if the relatively large eye may make intensification slightly slower and/or make the eventual weakening phase a bit more susceptible to dry air. On the other hand, it was probably already factored in by the models (I didn't check). Plenty of time for the eye to contract further once it's closed.

[Stormgodess]

Definitely going to be an interesting night with this one... might make it past the border of Cat 2 overnight based on that recon pass.

https://i.imgur.com/79lrCrJ.jpeg

Newb question incoming:

Could the giant blob of convection that has been NE of Francine all day, been sucking energy from her in some way?

And now that the blob is dissipating, Francine strengthening?

[weeniepatrol]

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND FRANCINE HAS STRENGTHENED...

Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that Francine has strengthened, with maximum sustained winds near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts.

[CrazyC83]

If it can fully close off the eyewall, the intensification rate could certainly increase. Category 2 seems reasonable.

[TomballEd]

It'll be moving into water with less OHC which happens because the ocean depth is lower but it should be moving over 29-30C until it gets very close to land, I am not sure it will have enough time to upwell too much cold water. It started intensifying a bit too late to be a real monster, although one of the 3 km hurricane models gets Francine to Cat 3 before it weakens to a Cat 1 on approach to Louisiana.


'Old' rule of the internet, always prepare for a category higher than the NHC forecast, to be on the safe side. Recon and satellite suggests the NHC forecast plus a Cat for safety is probably the safest way to go.

[Steve]

It’s looking like a rocky evening here in New Orleans tomorrow. 4-11pm may be rocky here with TS conditions. We got a break in the rain for now with only sporadic drops but you can see the low clouds starting to move fast out the east.

[otowntiger]

The Mexican Plateau's dry air may have made a big difference all along - without it, who knows what we would be dealing with now. I know quite a few storms have weakened in that area upon approach too due to dry air.

Yes- it appears that this storm is struggling and just barely made it to hurricane status. Sure, I didn’t think it would make it. Hopefully this is as strong as it gets before it begins succumbing to the forecasted upcoming shear before landfall.

And a whole 20 minutes later, the "struggling" Francine managed to strengthen past the "barely hurricane" status by at least 5 kts, if not more.

yep- I guess I should just quit posting lol! Maybe if I start being impressed by the storm and maybe it’ll weaken.

[weeniepatrol]

Yes- it appears that this storm is struggling and just barely made it to hurricane status. Sure, I didn’t think it would make it. Hopefully this is as strong as it gets before it begins succumbing to the forecasted upcoming shear before landfall.

And a whole 20 minutes later, the "struggling" Francine managed to strengthen past the "barely hurricane" status by at least 5 kts, if not more.

yep- I guess I should just quit posting lol! Maybe if I start being impressed by the storm and maybe it’ll weaken.

Lol it's honestly impressive how many times I make a post and then the complete opposite of what I said immediately occurs. Only in the Tropics baby

[Frank P]

0z GFS run with all of his friends dying off.

[Travorum]

VDM reports a 40 nm eye, and, in their own words:

EYEWALL HAS 75 PERCENT COVERAGE AROUND THE EYE AND IS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE ORGANIZED THAN ON PREVIOUS PASS

I do wonder if the relatively large eye may make intensification slightly slower and/or make the eventual weakening phase a bit more susceptible to dry air. On the other hand, it was probably already factored in by the models (I didn't check). Plenty of time for the eye to contract further once it's closed.

IIRC this was forecast relatively well by the hurricane models over the past day or so, showing a compact core structure developing then being disrupted and giving way to a much broader core. Those models continued to show that eye maintaining its integrity up until about 3-6 hours before landfall when dry air is finally able to interrupt the core structure.

[WeatherBoy2000]

It'll be moving into water with less OHC which happens because the ocean depth is lower but it should be moving over 29-30C until it gets very close to land, I am not sure it will have enough time to upwell too much cold water. It started intensifying a bit too late to be a real monster, although one of the 3 km hurricane models gets Francine to Cat 3 before it weakens to a Cat 1 on approach to Louisiana.


'Old' rule of the internet, always prepare for a category higher than the NHC forecast, to be on the safe side. Recon and satellite suggests the NHC forecast plus a Cat for safety is probably the safest way to go.

https://i.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExYzhpdDlrbXAxdmltdTV2dDlta2Zic2E1Y3l3ZmI0dHBveGY5NHI5YSZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/1221vXxof0dIT24A6x/giphy.gif

Zeta was able to RI into a Cat 3 prior to its landfall in late October if that says anything. Not saying another Zeta will occur, but like that storm Francine is probably moving too quickly to feel any effects of upwelling.

[Travorum]

It'll be moving into water with less OHC which happens because the ocean depth is lower but it should be moving over 29-30C until it gets very close to land, I am not sure it will have enough time to upwell too much cold water. It started intensifying a bit too late to be a real monster, although one of the 3 km hurricane models gets Francine to Cat 3 before it weakens to a Cat 1 on approach to Louisiana.


'Old' rule of the internet, always prepare for a category higher than the NHC forecast, to be on the safe side. Recon and satellite suggests the NHC forecast plus a Cat for safety is probably the safest way to go.

https://i.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExYzhpdDlrbXAxdmltdTV2dDlta2Zic2E1Y3l3ZmI0dHBveGY5NHI5YSZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/1221vXxof0dIT24A6x/giphy.gif

Zeta was able to RI into a Cat 3 prior to its landfall in late October if that says anything. Not saying another Zeta will occur, but like that storm Francine is probably moving too quickly to feel any effects of upwelling.

Based on the high SSTs Francine is currently traversing in conjunction with the forecast increase in shear prior to landfall I wouldn't be surprised if a Zeta-like situation plays out, with a significant hurricane with a strong northern eyewall but not much wind or rain at all on the southern back half of the storm due to dry air entrainment. I do think that Francine will be moving at enough of a forward pace that upwelling won't be as much of a concern and topical SSTs will be more of an influencing factor than OHC.