ATL: GORDON - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 93, 2024091018, , BEST, 0, 140N, 225W, 20, 1009, DB

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal932024.dat

[ElectricStorm]

Would be nice if we could get a good recurving ACE-producer but considering how dry/stable the MDR has been this season I wouldn't be surprised if it waits until the subtropics to get going. Fingers crossed we finally get a storm that doesn't affect any land areas, but still too early to know for sure.

[Teban54]

Right now, the system has two components: A vigorous wave SE of Cabo Verde that almost looks like a TD, and part of a monsoon trough near 35W with a weak LLC and some convective bursts (just east of 92L). The former is what NHC tagged. If the Euro is right, the wave will become less defined in the next few days, mainly because it does a Fujiwhara with the trough. That will take some time to consolidate, and the key to development is how smooth this process goes.

[Teban54]

Would be nice if we could get a good recurving ACE-producer but considering how dry/stable the MDR has been this season I wouldn't be surprised if it waits until the subtropics to get going. Fingers crossed we finally get a storm that doesn't affect any land areas, but still too early to know for sure.

Most models that develop this do seem to only start significant intensification once the system is already on the recurve. I don't think that's entirely because of hostile conditions in the MDR, though (if at all): it's a combination of the merger that delays consolidation, and the timing of the trough right when genesis can take place and/or conditions become more favorable.

More generally, while I haven't verified this myself, my gut instinct is that more CV storms reach their peak north of 20N than people think. MDR is Main Development Region, not Main Intensification Region.

[cycloneye]

Wave looks good with a good circulation.

[cycloneye]

[Blown Away]

Is 93L part of the red cone?

[cycloneye]

Is 93L part of the red cone?

Yes it is.

[Teban54]

This is the best-looking eastern MDR wave that we've seen this season.

[cycloneye]

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL93):
Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization with a
tropical wave located a few hundred miles to the west-southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear favorable
for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression
is likely to form over the next few days as the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph into the central Tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[Teban54]

Continues to look like almost a TD if not already there.

[cycloneye]

Looks liike a TD.

[cycloneye]

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL93):
Updated: Recent satellite-wind data indicates that the system
located a few hundred miles to the west-southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands has developed a well-defined circulation. In addition,
showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization,
and if these trends continue, advisories will be issued on a
tropical depression later this morning. The system is moving to the
west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph and will be moving into the central
Tropical Atlantic by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[kevin]

Will almost certainly become a TD later today, probably already is one now. None of the models showed this system consolidating this quickly as far as I know. Very interested what will happen to future-Gordon.

[Subtrop]

AL, 07, 2024091112, , BEST, 0, 158N, 279W, 30, 1007, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 100, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SEVEN, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 020, TRANSITIONED, alC32024 to al072024,

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/A ... 072024.dat

[Kazmit]

Lol, and the GFS said it would never develop.

[Sciencerocks]

[Subtrop]

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Seven, located to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands in the eastern Tropical Atlantic, at 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC).

[Teban54]

Cyclogenesis in 2024's eastern MDR that's plagued with dry, stable air? Impossible!

[kevin]

So we can basically throw the latest model runs for this out of the window since it's already a TD? This one has me intrigued, now clue what will happen now.