ATL: GORDON - Remnants - Discussion

[Ubuntwo]

Center is separated from the convection this morning. ASCAT last evening did not have any wind higher than 30 kts. NHC should be downgrading it this morning.

NHC still has it as a 40-kt TS:

Gordon's center is exposed and located west of its deep convection.
This structure is a symptom of the moderate westerly vertical wind
shear that continues to plague the tropical storm. Gordon is also
struggling with the entrainment of dry and stable airmass. Despite
these environmental challenges, a recent scatterometer pass shows
the cyclone maintaining 40 kt maximum sustained winds. This data is
the basis for the initial intensity of this advisory, and agrees
with a blend of the objective and subjective estimates. The
scatterometer pass also shows a lopsided wind field, with tropical
storm force winds limited to the northern semicircle of Gordon. In
the southern semicircle, winds are weak and the vortex shows signs
of elongation.

Here is that ASCAT pass from roughly 12z with a large area of TS-force winds.

[WaveBreaking]

Starting to make that SW jog

[AnnularCane]

Was a southwest jog expected? (Sorry if it has been talked about a million times already. )

[WaveBreaking]

Was a southwest jog expected? (Sorry if it has been talked about a million times already. )

I’m just going by the cone, and ig “jog” wouldn’t be the best way to describe its movement since it’s more of a marathon than a jog

[cycloneye]

It may not survive the hostile conditions ahead.

The tropical storm is forecast to weaken to a depression on Sunday,
as it continues to experience moderate shear and a drier and more
stable airmass. Model guidance has trended weaker towards the end of
the period and the intensity forecast is in fairly good agreement
with the HCCA corrected consensus aids. Global models have continued
to trend towards Gordon struggling to produce convection, and it is
possible Gordon may degenerate into a remnant low or surface trough
by the middle of the forecast period. The current forecast keeps
Gordon as a tropical cyclone through the period, although this could
be generous and subsequent changes may be needed in future
advisories.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Center is separated from the convection this morning. ASCAT last evening did not have any wind higher than 30 kts. NHC should be downgrading it this morning.

NHC still has it as a 40-kt TS:

Gordon's center is exposed and located west of its deep convection.
This structure is a symptom of the moderate westerly vertical wind
shear that continues to plague the tropical storm. Gordon is also
struggling with the entrainment of dry and stable airmass. Despite
these environmental challenges, a recent scatterometer pass shows
the cyclone maintaining 40 kt maximum sustained winds. This data is
the basis for the initial intensity of this advisory, and agrees
with a blend of the objective and subjective estimates. The
scatterometer pass also shows a lopsided wind field, with tropical
storm force winds limited to the northern semicircle of Gordon. In
the southern semicircle, winds are weak and the vortex shows signs
of elongation.

Here is that ASCAT pass from roughly 12z with a large area of TS-force winds.
https://i.imgur.com/cqJROqt.png

Never would have guessed this was a TS without that ASCAT

[Sciencerocks]

[Teban54]

Even though the current state of Gordon may make you think the tropical Atlantic is full of shear everywhere, in reality, it happens to just be riding along a fine line just north of a low-shear zone. If Gordon were just a few degrees south, it would have found a much better environment and potentially become a lot stronger.

[Teban54]

From the 11pm ET advisory:

The official intensity
forecast shows Gordon maintaining depression strength through day 5
in deference to the global model and HCCA solutions. The
Decay-SHIPS, LGEM, and IVCN intensity aids, however, continue to
show significant re-strengthening late in the period. Consequently,
subsequent advisories may need changes, particularly if the global
models align more with the intensity aids mentioned above.

[AnnularCane]

Even though the current state of Gordon may make you think the tropical Atlantic is full of shear everywhere, in reality, it happens to just be riding along a fine line just north of a low-shear zone. If Gordon were just a few degrees south, it would have found a much better environment and potentially become a lot stronger.

https://i.postimg.cc/QNRPk6Fc/image.png

Might he be able to get a few degrees south?

[REDHurricane]

How far apart can Gordon's LLC get from any convection and still have the NHC keep its tropical storm designation? They're separated by probably around 2 to 2.5 degrees longitude, which at approximately 20ºN would be 120 to 150 miles and still increasing.

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Will it survive?

The environmental conditions improve towards
the end of the forecast period that depicts that the system could
re-strengthen. The current intensity forecast is similar to the
previous forecast but does show Gordon becoming a tropical storm
again towards the end of the period, if it can survive the next few
days.

[Teban54]

C'mon, Gordon, do something! We have faith in you!

[MarioProtVI]

Ophelia 2011 sounds like a good analog here just shifted east. Struggles in MDR, degenerates then comes back strong recurving in the subtropics.

[Sciencerocks]

[ThomasW]

Ophelia 2011 sounds like a good analog here just shifted east. Struggles in MDR, degenerates then comes back strong recurving in the subtropics.

Maybe more like what Gabby 2019 was supposed to be. Not seeing a C4 out of this

[ChrisH-UK]

Gordon this morning.

[ThomasW]

Gordon this morning.

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/424/W0hkex.gif [/url]

Wonder what the odds NHC calls RL over the next day or so are.