2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Hammy]

When is the origination area supposed to start taking place. How long until we see it on the map?

Looks like Friday based on the Canadian, which has been the most bullish

[canes92]

:double:

https://i.postimg.cc/K81h0GMR/image.png

IDK, still a bit too far away to take seriously yet.

[Stormlover70]

:double:

https://i.postimg.cc/K81h0GMR/image.png

talk about a worse case scenario......

[WaveBreaking]

00Z AIFS shows a massive storm with an Isidore-like track into the GOM and a minimum pressure of 965mb at the end of the run.




The main cause for this track is an omega block that the AIFS develops about a week from now. Also, the trough that most models show scooping the storm up to Florida instead stalls out in the Great Plains due to a stronger ridge.

[otowntiger]

:double:

https://i.postimg.cc/K81h0GMR/image.png

talk about a worse case scenario......

Definitely a bad, if not worst case as you say for location, but for it to be worst case overall the storm would need to be a lot more intense. I think 971 MB would potentially equate to cat, if I’m not mistaken

[Category5Kaiju]

:double:

https://i.postimg.cc/K81h0GMR/image.png

talk about a worse case scenario......

Definitely a bad, if not worst case as you say for location, but for it to be worst case overall the storm would need to be a lot more intense. I think 971 MB would potentially equate to cat, if I’m not mistaken

The CMC is not a good model for determining exact intensity. Normally the pattern I've seen with it is that if it forecasts a relatively strong, well-organized system like that, then that system usually ends up becoming a strong hurricane in reality.

[Europa non è lontana]

Both the 18z and 06z GFS runs have had a strong tropical storm forming in the Black Sea at around +180.

[Stormlover70]

00Z AIFS shows a massive storm with an Isidore-like track into the GOM and a minimum pressure of 965mb at the end of the run.

https://i.imgur.com/0c25zRg.gif


The main cause for this track is an omega block that the AIFS develops about a week from now. Also, the trough that most models show scooping the storm up to Florida instead stalls out in the Great Plains due to a stronger ridge.

https://i.imgur.com/se0zY1c.jpeg

The year I started tracking storms. With barometer bob.

[Blown Away]

06z GEFS pretty active…

[WaveBreaking]

00Z AIFS shows a massive storm with an Isidore-like track into the GOM and a minimum pressure of 965mb at the end of the run.

https://i.imgur.com/0c25zRg.gif


The main cause for this track is an omega block that the AIFS develops about a week from now. Also, the trough that most models show scooping the storm up to Florida instead stalls out in the Great Plains due to a stronger ridge.

https://i.imgur.com/se0zY1c.jpeg

06Z AIFS run continues with this track. None of the other models show this solution, but the AIFS has nailed the tracks for recent storms. Have to see if it continues to show this.

[cajungal]

00Z AIFS shows a massive storm with an Isidore-like track into the GOM and a minimum pressure of 965mb at the end of the run.

https://i.imgur.com/0c25zRg.gif


The main cause for this track is an omega block that the AIFS develops about a week from now. Also, the trough that most models show scooping the storm up to Florida instead stalls out in the Great Plains due to a stronger ridge.

https://i.imgur.com/se0zY1c.jpeg

06Z AIFS run continues with this track. None of the other models show this solution, but the AIFS has nailed the tracks for recent storms. Have to see if it continues to show this.

https://i.imgur.com/2vu59di.gif

Hope that doesn’t decide to turn north towards central gulf coast

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Both the 18z and 06z GFS runs have had a strong tropical storm forming in the Black Sea at around +180.

https://i.imgur.com/NyTsmtr.gif

Now THATS an interesting one!

[Teban54]

0z EPS also shows some support for the Caribbean system.

[chaser1]

Next up in the 2024 Meager North Atlantic Tropical Outlook:
Potential development for the end of next week is now looking more like the end of the month....

Looking at both the EURO and GFS long range 200mb winds, strong southwesterly shear appears to continue in the W. Caribbean for at least 150 hr's. Only at 192 hr's does the GFS and EURO then forecast a large upper-level anticyclone over the region. This is perhaps the primary reason that the EURO, GFS or ICON are not buying the CMC Florida landfall depicted at 0Z last night. It is also the reason that the AIFS is moving the goal post further back on development. I just do not see anything coming north of Cuba and surviving as a result of upper-level shear all the way out for nearly 200 hr.'s

The AIFS has remained relatively consistent in developing a W. Caribbean storm and has even trended strong HOWEVER, it's 06Z from this morning (9/16) depicts a 991 mb center over W. Cuba at 294 hr.'s. While the 06Z AIFS run from 24 hr.'s earlier (9/15) had a 1001 mb center over W. Cuba at 270 hr.'s.

Bottom line, I don't expect to see a possible "Helene" until about Sept 26. At this rate that could mean only (3) named storms for Sept (and little additional ACE).

[AnnularCane]

00Z AIFS shows a massive storm with an Isidore-like track into the GOM and a minimum pressure of 965mb at the end of the run.

https://i.imgur.com/0c25zRg.gif


The main cause for this track is an omega block that the AIFS develops about a week from now. Also, the trough that most models show scooping the storm up to Florida instead stalls out in the Great Plains due to a stronger ridge.

https://i.imgur.com/se0zY1c.jpeg

06Z AIFS run continues with this track. None of the other models show this solution, but the AIFS has nailed the tracks for recent storms. Have to see if it continues to show this.

https://i.imgur.com/2vu59di.gif

Weird. Kind of reminds me of Isidore a little bit.

[SFLcane]

[toad strangler]

12z GFS is blowing up a big 'cane in the Central Gulf in post 240 fantasy hours.

[Stratton23]

ridge is much stronger on the 12z GFS, think we are seeing a trend here

[SFLcane]

ridge is much stronger on the 12z GFS, think we are seeing a trend here

Lol far from any trend its the first time its developed it. All ensembles GEFS, GEPS, and mostly EPS are east. Long ways out

[AutoPenalti]

You couldn't ask for a better SEFL "shield" with this GFS set up... Ridge strong enough to be protected from the W Car. and weak ridge for anything forming the East, obviously won't verify.