2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[REDHurricane]

Regardless of what models are saying could happen in the 7-14 day time frame, it's kind of shocking to see the MDR and Caribbean/Gulf (especially the MDR) completely barren of convective activity in the middle of September like this:

[Category5Kaiju]

Yes, I know it's Happy Hour, but most recent GFS seems to like an MDR wave that exits the African coast early next week. Turns it into a decent-strength, westward-tracking hurricane

[Teban54]

Yes, I know it's Happy Hour, but most recent GFS seems to like an MDR wave that exits the African coast early next week. Turns it into a decent-strength, westward-tracking hurricane

[Teban54]

This is gonna make up for some ACE big time if it plays out verbatim.

[Teban54]

This is gonna make up for some ACE big time if it plays out verbatim.

https://i.postimg.cc/4yYRLT36/image.png

Actually, right after this frame... What the %#$%#@!$~#$%?????

[tiger_deF]

This is gonna make up for some ACE big time if it plays out verbatim.

https://i.postimg.cc/4yYRLT36/image.png

Actually, right after this frame... What the %#$%#@!$~#$%?????
https://i.postimg.cc/qR6vqYfv/gfs-mslp-pcpn-atl-fh234-378.gif

Incredibly unlikely but would be wild if that setting played out, especially in early October. Don’t think a storm coming from north of 30N has hit the Antilles this late in the season that we know of.

[chaser1]

How 'bout that? A 0Z Happy Hour Special

[eastcoastFL]

This is gonna make up for some ACE big time if it plays out verbatim.

https://i.postimg.cc/4yYRLT36/image.png

Actually, right after this frame... What the %#$%#@!$~#$%?????
https://i.postimg.cc/qR6vqYfv/gfs-mslp-pcpn-atl-fh234-378.gif

That has got to be some kind of error, right?

[kevin]

06z GFS once again quite active with two major systems (WCar/GOM and MDR) and some weak slop with ex-Gordon and two other disturbances. Those weak storms might be able to get 1 - 5 ACE combined depending on which ones form and how long they stick around. Using the 0z GFS and converting to wind speed from pressure using Dvorak, the WCar/GOM system would get about 20 ACE and the MDR system would generate about 33 ACE out to +384 hrs. And there's also a quick low-end cat 1 spin-up in the WCar at the very end of the run. Combining all of this would generate 55 ACE over the next 16 days and this would put us at 116 ACE by October 5. Would be quite impressive and still gives plenty of time in October for an above-average season. One more MH in October would then be sufficient for an above-average season and 2 or 3 MHs could even still take us to hyperactivity. But it's 2024 we're talking about, perhaps in 3 days models will be postponing or cancelling development again .

[kevin]

35 out of 51 EPS members (69%) show a TD in the eastern MDR by day 7 (+168 hrs). GEFS even has 26 out of 31 members (84%) showing something by day 6 (+144 hrs). ICON and CMC are still a bit uncertain though. I still expect an eastern MDR lemon soon, perhaps already later today if both the 12z Euro and GFS ensembles consistently show this system.

[MHC Tracking]

This is gonna make up for some ACE big time if it plays out verbatim.

https://i.postimg.cc/4yYRLT36/image.png

Even the often "downcasty" 06z run maintains a similar idea (though, IMO, it overbroadens the GoM system over the Yuctatan)

[Category5Kaiju]

This is gonna make up for some ACE big time if it plays out verbatim.

https://i.postimg.cc/4yYRLT36/image.png

Actually, right after this frame... What the %#$%#@!$~#$%?????
https://i.postimg.cc/qR6vqYfv/gfs-mslp-pcpn-atl-fh234-378.gif

Incredibly unlikely but would be wild if that setting played out, especially in early October. Don’t think a storm coming from north of 30N has hit the Antilles this late in the season that we know of.

No indeed. Getting an Irma-like track that late in the year would indeed be insane stuff

[kevin]

06z GEFS ensemble, looks a little more like what we probably all expected for September a few months ago. Besides the main WCar & MDR signals there are also a two short-term clusters in the subtropics (+ ex-Gordon) and two additional MDR signals in the second half of the timeframe.

[aspen]

06z GEFS ensemble, looks a little more like what we probably all expected for September a few months ago. Besides the main WCar & MDR signals there are also a two short-term clusters in the subtropics (+ ex-Gordon) and two additional MDR signals in the second half of the timeframe.

https://i.imgur.com/7I3Wy8y.png

If this pans out, I guess the predictions of a significant back-loaded season and delayed MDR activity were right. It would also probably be enough to get us up to 100-120 ACE.

[Category5Kaiju]

12z GFS: Return of the Irma

[AnnularCane]

12z GFS: Return of the Irma

Oh my goodness, that's a different one!

[GlennOBX]

Forgive the level 101 question, and moderators feel free to delete this if you prefer.

I'm wondering why there's no thread for the 2pm 10/20 lemon in the Atlantic? It's possible there is one, and I didn't see it.

Chances too low?

Not gonna develop?

[USTropics]

Forgive the level 101 question, and moderators feel free to delete this if you prefer.

I'm wondering why there's no thread for the 2pm 10/20 lemon in the Atlantic? It's possible there is one, and I didn't see it.

Chances too low?

Not gonna develop?

There is: https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 1&t=124319

The other highlighted area is for the remnants of Gordon: https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... &start=120

[Stormlover70]

Where is Wxman57?. I would like his thoughts.

[Steve]

Regardless of what models are saying could happen in the 7-14 day time frame, it's kind of shocking to see the MDR and Caribbean/Gulf (especially the MDR) completely barren of convective activity in the middle of September like this:

https://media4.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExNnRxNW5wY2RoNHlqcXZ6bWhibGlpeDVmMGpmbjZjajl2dWVpeHllZiZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/pPadHtZSUGdu8zHv4h/giphy.gif

I don’t agree Red. It’s literally predictable and not shocking at all. There’s supposed to be sinking and stable air across most of the Atlantic. We been in Phases 4, 5 and 6 of the MJO since July 25th. These aren’t upward motion phases for the majority of the Atlantic though there are some minor corridors. But overall those phases don’t lend to multiple storms across the Atlantic.