Low pressure developing over the western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[HurricaneRyan]

Given the time of year, this could potentially be an Opal equivalent.

[Nimbus]

Pretty decent shift east on GFS
Still a lot of possibilities at this point

All the models have a closed low in the gulf beyond 5 days so the potential to avoid a bad outcome is decreasing rapidly now.

06Z GFS trend continues east and faster so the ridge may be building west or being replaced by a low off New England (per Euro) at the time of the hurricane landfall?
5 days out so we should start seeing the upper air patterns more accurately.

[kevin]

06z GFS, landfall north of Cedar Key, 972 mbar and faster at only +162 hrs. Florida is definitely not out of the woods. TS winds within 4 days and a 20 - 30 kt PTC within 3 days.

[kevin]

8 out of 51 (16%) Euro members have development within 48 hours and the same is the case for 15 out of 31 GEFS members (48%). Over the next 7 days those odds go to 40 out of 51 (78%) Euro members and 28 out of 31 (90%) GEFS members. Combining those numbers would give about 30/80 chances for development for the next 2 days and 7 days.

[gatorcane]

GFS trend is definitely east, last 5 runs below:


Less GFS ensembles develop but all into the EGOM now:

[Steve]

The 00z EC AI hits around Grand Isle @ 972 Friday afternoon. So Cat 2. It goes inland N/NNW and gets pushed right back to the Gulf though weakened to just a low.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 100&fh=162

Operational EC goes up to the LA coast but veers off and hits around Gulf Co @ 980
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

[jlauderdal]

8 out of 51 (16%) Euro members have development within 48 hours and the same is the case for 15 out of 31 GEFS members (48%). Over the next 7 days those odds go to 40 out of 51 (78%) Euro members and 28 out of 31 (90%) GEFS members. Combining those numbers would give about 30/80 chances for development for the next 2 days and 7 days.

Gefs has been all over florida, mobile to fort myers goal posts.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I'm guessing this will be our area of disturbed weather that generates would-be Helene.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I'll say I can immediately tell the two biggest threats from this system will be surge and rain. This system will be absolutely massive for a GOMEX storm.

[Blown Away]

06z GEFS… Backing off from multiple MH’s… Weakening trend this run…

[StPeteMike]

Good news for sure. Don’t think anyone from Pensacola to Naples wants another MH.

[DunedinDave]

Would be crazy if Horseshoe Beach gets their third hurricane in one year. I wouldn’t put it out of the realm of possibilities at all.

[Frank P]

Starting to move northerly, latest vis sat loops

[jlauderdal]

Bernie does a good job laying it out and has seen many of these setups before.

https://bit.ly/3Tx6APZ

[ThomasW]

IMO, this looks like a broad C2-C3 coming into the Panhandle with a pressure way down in the 950s. Surge machine for sure. 06z GFS would likely go 950s if not for all the fake vorticity that tosses the core around. UL setup is very good on that run.

[DunedinDave]

Starting to move northerly, latest vis sat loops
https://i.ibb.co/YZXc1CQ/56154170.gif

We had this yesterday, too, though with this. Seems like it fires up during the day and then dies down at night. Will probably be like this for a few days until we finally get something out of it to the point where we get that nocturnal explosion.

[Frank P]

Starting to move northerly, latest vis sat loops
https://i.ibb.co/YZXc1CQ/56154170.gif

We had this yesterday, too, though with this. Seems like it fires up during the day and then dies down at night. Will probably be like this for a few days until we finally get something out of it to the point where we get that nocturnal explosion.

most likely true but what is somewhat different from yesterday is that it was stationary, and now it hints of actual northerly movement. Still may poof overnight, who knows..

[canes92]

Stay far away from Florida!

[wzrgirl1]

I am 90 miles east of Naples. This shouldn’t affect me much right?

[caneman]

I am 90 miles east of Naples. This shouldn’t affect me much right?

Watch the video jlauderdale posted above. It doesn't seem likely.