Low pressure developing over the western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
HurricaneRyan
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 813
Age: 31
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2010 3:05 pm

Re: Area of low pressure to develop over the western Caribbean sea (0/60)

#761 Postby HurricaneRyan » Sat Sep 21, 2024 2:50 am

Given the time of year, this could potentially be an Opal equivalent.
1 likes   
Kay '22 Hilary '23

User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5300
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

Re: Area of low pressure to develop over the western Caribbean sea (0/60)

#762 Postby Nimbus » Sat Sep 21, 2024 5:24 am

AtlanticWind wrote:Pretty decent shift east on GFS
Still a lot of possibilities at this point


All the models have a closed low in the gulf beyond 5 days so the potential to avoid a bad outcome is decreasing rapidly now.

06Z GFS trend continues east and faster so the ridge may be building west or being replaced by a low off New England (per Euro) at the time of the hurricane landfall?
5 days out so we should start seeing the upper air patterns more accurately.
1 likes   

User avatar
kevin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2586
Age: 26
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:35 am

Re: Area of low pressure to develop over the western Caribbean sea (0/60)

#763 Postby kevin » Sat Sep 21, 2024 5:54 am

06z GFS, landfall north of Cedar Key, 972 mbar and faster at only +162 hrs. Florida is definitely not out of the woods. TS winds within 4 days and a 20 - 30 kt PTC within 3 days.
3 likes   

User avatar
kevin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2586
Age: 26
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:35 am

Re: Area of low pressure to develop over the western Caribbean sea (0/60)

#764 Postby kevin » Sat Sep 21, 2024 6:16 am

8 out of 51 (16%) Euro members have development within 48 hours and the same is the case for 15 out of 31 GEFS members (48%). Over the next 7 days those odds go to 40 out of 51 (78%) Euro members and 28 out of 31 (90%) GEFS members. Combining those numbers would give about 30/80 chances for development for the next 2 days and 7 days.
5 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: Area of low pressure to develop over the western Caribbean sea (0/60)

#765 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 21, 2024 6:22 am

GFS trend is definitely east, last 5 runs below:
Image

Less GFS ensembles develop but all into the EGOM now:
Image
3 likes   

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9621
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: Area of low pressure to develop over the western Caribbean sea (0/60)

#766 Postby Steve » Sat Sep 21, 2024 6:28 am

The 00z EC AI hits around Grand Isle @ 972 Friday afternoon. So Cat 2. It goes inland N/NNW and gets pushed right back to the Gulf though weakened to just a low.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 100&fh=162

Operational EC goes up to the LA coast but veers off and hits around Gulf Co @ 980
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=
1 likes   

jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7183
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:

Re: Area of low pressure to develop over the western Caribbean sea (0/60)

#767 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Sep 21, 2024 6:49 am

kevin wrote:8 out of 51 (16%) Euro members have development within 48 hours and the same is the case for 15 out of 31 GEFS members (48%). Over the next 7 days those odds go to 40 out of 51 (78%) Euro members and 28 out of 31 (90%) GEFS members. Combining those numbers would give about 30/80 chances for development for the next 2 days and 7 days.
Gefs has been all over florida, mobile to fort myers goal posts.
2 likes   

User avatar
Hypercane_Kyle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3352
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm
Location: Cape Canaveral, FL

Re: Area of low pressure to develop over the western Caribbean sea (0/60)

#768 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Sep 21, 2024 6:50 am

I'm guessing this will be our area of disturbed weather that generates would-be Helene.

Image
4 likes   
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.

User avatar
Hypercane_Kyle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3352
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm
Location: Cape Canaveral, FL

Re: Area of low pressure to develop over the western Caribbean sea (0/60)

#769 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Sep 21, 2024 7:21 am

I'll say I can immediately tell the two biggest threats from this system will be surge and rain. This system will be absolutely massive for a GOMEX storm.
1 likes   
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10145
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: Area of low pressure to develop over the western Caribbean sea (0/60)

#770 Postby Blown Away » Sat Sep 21, 2024 7:40 am

Image

06z GEFS… Backing off from multiple MH’s… Weakening trend this run…
5 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…

User avatar
StPeteMike
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 631
Joined: Thu Jun 07, 2018 11:26 pm

Re: Area of low pressure to develop over the western Caribbean sea (0/60)

#771 Postby StPeteMike » Sat Sep 21, 2024 8:11 am

Good news for sure. Don’t think anyone from Pensacola to Naples wants another MH.
1 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

DunedinDave
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 227
Joined: Fri Aug 25, 2023 10:31 am

Re: Area of low pressure to develop over the western Caribbean sea (0/60)

#772 Postby DunedinDave » Sat Sep 21, 2024 8:11 am

Would be crazy if Horseshoe Beach gets their third hurricane in one year. I wouldn’t put it out of the realm of possibilities at all.
1 likes   

Frank P
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2776
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 10:52 am
Location: Biloxi Beach, Ms
Contact:

Re: Area of low pressure to develop over the western Caribbean sea (0/60)

#773 Postby Frank P » Sat Sep 21, 2024 8:26 am

Starting to move northerly, latest vis sat loops
Image
0 likes   

jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7183
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:

Re: Area of low pressure to develop over the western Caribbean sea (0/60)

#774 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Sep 21, 2024 8:31 am

Bernie does a good job laying it out and has seen many of these setups before.

https://bit.ly/3Tx6APZ
4 likes   

User avatar
ThomasW
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 78
Age: 44
Joined: Thu May 19, 2022 10:59 am
Contact:

Re: Area of low pressure to develop over the western Caribbean sea (0/60)

#775 Postby ThomasW » Sat Sep 21, 2024 8:35 am

IMO, this looks like a broad C2-C3 coming into the Panhandle with a pressure way down in the 950s. Surge machine for sure. 06z GFS would likely go 950s if not for all the fake vorticity that tosses the core around. UL setup is very good on that run.
1 likes   

DunedinDave
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 227
Joined: Fri Aug 25, 2023 10:31 am

Re: Area of low pressure to develop over the western Caribbean sea (0/60)

#776 Postby DunedinDave » Sat Sep 21, 2024 8:45 am

Frank P wrote:Starting to move northerly, latest vis sat loops
https://i.ibb.co/YZXc1CQ/56154170.gif


We had this yesterday, too, though with this. Seems like it fires up during the day and then dies down at night. Will probably be like this for a few days until we finally get something out of it to the point where we get that nocturnal explosion.
1 likes   

Frank P
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2776
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 10:52 am
Location: Biloxi Beach, Ms
Contact:

Re: Area of low pressure to develop over the western Caribbean sea (0/60)

#777 Postby Frank P » Sat Sep 21, 2024 8:48 am

DunedinDave wrote:
Frank P wrote:Starting to move northerly, latest vis sat loops
https://i.ibb.co/YZXc1CQ/56154170.gif


We had this yesterday, too, though with this. Seems like it fires up during the day and then dies down at night. Will probably be like this for a few days until we finally get something out of it to the point where we get that nocturnal explosion.

most likely true but what is somewhat different from yesterday is that it was stationary, and now it hints of actual northerly movement. Still may poof overnight, who knows..
2 likes   

canes92
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 127
Age: 32
Joined: Tue Mar 06, 2018 1:51 pm

Re: Area of low pressure to develop over the western Caribbean sea (0/60)

#778 Postby canes92 » Sat Sep 21, 2024 9:02 am

Stay far away from Florida!
0 likes   

User avatar
wzrgirl1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1325
Joined: Sat Sep 04, 2004 6:44 am
Location: Pembroke Pines, Florida

Re: Area of low pressure to develop over the western Caribbean sea (0/60)

#779 Postby wzrgirl1 » Sat Sep 21, 2024 9:08 am

I am 90 miles east of Naples. This shouldn’t affect me much right?
0 likes   

caneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1447
Joined: Fri Sep 05, 2014 5:44 am
Location: Clearwater Beach, Fl

Re: Area of low pressure to develop over the western Caribbean sea (0/60)

#780 Postby caneman » Sat Sep 21, 2024 9:17 am

wzrgirl1 wrote:I am 90 miles east of Naples. This shouldn’t affect me much right?


Watch the video jlauderdale posted above. It doesn't seem likely.
2 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: cycloneye, Google Adsense [Bot], Kingarabian, NotSparta, StormWeather, Stratton23, TheBurn and 47 guests