Low pressure developing over the western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[Pelicane]

Landfall at 949 mb in five days

[stormhunter7]

00z GFS is off to the NE in the GOM.... ?

[Keldeo1997]

Yikes on the GFS. Peaks at a 919MB CAT 5

[Blown Away]

00z GFS… Legit Cat 4 heading towards FL W Coast in 5 days…

[Pelicane]

Tampa needs to be watching that sharp turn. Models tend to underestimate it. They usually are sharper and go further south than the models like to show. Happened here in LA with Francine. Not usual that you see a storm that strong modeled north of Tampa. Any similar storms that you guys recall that were modeled like this?

[Owasso]

I'm eyeballing here but looks like just south of Cedar Key on this run

[DunedinDave]

Tampa needs to be watching that sharp turn. Models tend to underestimate it. They usually are sharper and go further south than the models like to show. Happened here in LA with Francine. Not usual that you see a storm that strong modeled north of Tampa. Any similar storms that you guys recall that were modeled like this?

Ian was up until 2 days betore landfall. Then the track shifted south.

[Blown Away]

Geez this is a scary trend towards FL…

[Pelicane]

Tampa needs to be watching that sharp turn. Models tend to underestimate it. They usually are sharper and go further south than the models like to show. Happened here in LA with Francine. Not usual that you see a storm that strong modeled north of Tampa. Any similar storms that you guys recall that were modeled like this?

Ian was up until 2 days betore landfall. Then the track shifted south.

I remember the GFS was insistant Ian would go into the panhandle, but most models were further south. This looks like it's entering the Gulf further west so any sharp turn would go further up the peninsula I'd think.

[jfk08c]

GFS has sped up the trough timing the past 3 runs, leading to the east shifts. Euro and Canadian have the trough sitting over Texas/Louisiana leading to more westward tracks. Seems like it's GFS vs everybody at this stage. Someone's going to get the upper patterns wrong, just a matter of who

[SconnieCane]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1157676956674949152/1287265322365223065/Screenshot_204.png?ex=66f0eac1&is=66ef9941&hm=3432904b5a98538439db9a4c1051d3dbb70de647f92b9287a66cfce345fe4e21&

Yikes on the GFS. Peaks at a 919MB CAT 5

Hmmm...I'm also using TT but it shows 950 mb at that timeframe on the 00Z run for me. Then 949 MB on the next frame, close to landfall.

Edit...I was using the "Western Atlantic" sector...when I use the "Southeast US" sector it does appear to show that 919 MB at FH114...bizarre.

[Blown Away]

EC-AIFS trend today…

[Category5Kaiju]

Tampa needs to be watching that sharp turn. Models tend to underestimate it. They usually are sharper and go further south than the models like to show. Happened here in LA with Francine. Not usual that you see a storm that strong modeled north of Tampa. Any similar storms that you guys recall that were modeled like this?

Ian was up until 2 days betore landfall. Then the track shifted south.

I remember the GFS was insistant Ian would go into the panhandle, but most models were further south. This looks like it's entering the Gulf further west so any sharp turn would go further up the peninsula I'd think.

One thing about Ian and Charley is that they share an interesting similarity aside from how they were forecast to slam Tampa directly at some point in their early stages but ultimately missed to the south: they both hit the western tip of Cuba.

[Blown Away]

CMC Trend Today…

[Teban54]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1157676956674949152/1287265322365223065/Screenshot_204.png?ex=66f0eac1&is=66ef9941&hm=3432904b5a98538439db9a4c1051d3dbb70de647f92b9287a66cfce345fe4e21&

Yikes on the GFS. Peaks at a 919MB CAT 5

Tropical Tidbits has the tendency to put random contour lines and other stuff over pressure numbers. That's actually 949 at that frame, not 919.

[Blown Away]

IMO, if NHC buying into these 00z models speeding up towards FL, we are near the 5 day window and at minimum PTC advisories should start very soon…

[Fancy1002]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1157676956674949152/1287265322365223065/Screenshot_204.png?ex=66f0eac1&is=66ef9941&hm=3432904b5a98538439db9a4c1051d3dbb70de647f92b9287a66cfce345fe4e21&

Yikes on the GFS. Peaks at a 919MB CAT 5

It’s a 4, not a 1, you can see that if you switch to the mlsp view, sometimes the numbers get a little screwed up. I’m not sure what causes that.

[jfk08c]

IMO, if NHC buying into these 00z models speeding up towards FL, we are near the 5 day window and at minimum PTC advisories should start very soon…

I'd hate to be in their position. Posting on a message board knowing nobody cares about my opinions makes it a heck of a lot less stressful

[Hammy]

Canadian and European seem to be the in the most agreement, with the GFS being an outlier. IF the latest Canadian plays out we'll probably get another unnamed PTC out of this and not much more.

[ConvergenceZone]

So both ICON and GFS have big intensity increases? Interesting. A trend?