ATL: HELENE - Models

[Blown Away]

HMON joins in with 909mb near landfall... winds "only" mid-range Cat 4

@143 mph winds to St Pete/Tampa… Yikes

[Beef Stew]

The hurricane models, as they usually tend to be initially, are very bullish (HAFS-B even has a 145kt, sub 915 mb category 5 peak). While there's still quite a lot that can happen, I think the ceiling for this system in the GOM is quite high if it manages to pass cleanly through the Yucatán channel near or at major hurricane strength as some of the 0z models are showing. That being said, I'm not putting much stock into shear forecasts yet- the timing and degree of interaction with the trough is going to be the biggest x-factor here, both for path, and intensity.

[CrazyC83]

HMON joins in with 909mb near landfall... winds "only" mid-range Cat 4

A strengthening 909 mb storm would likely be about 150 kt winds.

[Teban54]

Obligatory reminder that hurricane models can be quite off with track, so don't take the track here too literally. That said... This is just downright scary.

[psyclone]

Some very intense runs for west coast residents

[Blown Away]

Climatology it’s so rare for a Cat 4/5 between Appalachicola to Tampa… Ultimately IMO 97L goes W or S of this region…

[CrazyC83]

Climatology it’s so rare for a Cat 4/5 between Appalachicola to Tampa… Ultimately IMO 97L goes W or S of this region…

I wouldn't use that as a reasoning - we thought such wasn't in the cards ever in the Panhandle, and then Michael broke the rules in 2018. There's no reason why a category 4 or 5 can't hit that region.

[Blown Away]

Climatology it’s so rare for a Cat 4/5 between Appalachicola to Tampa… Ultimately IMO 97L goes W or S of this region…

I wouldn't use that as a reasoning - we thought such wasn't in the cards ever in the Panhandle, and then Michael broke the rules in 2018. There's no reason why a category 4 or 5 can't hit that region.

I totally agree, I’m just saying it’s extremely rare. Of course it could happen again within a few years, but climatology says likely not…

[caneman]

Climatology it’s so rare for a Cat 4/5 between Appalachicola to Tampa… Ultimately IMO 97L goes W or S of this region…

I wouldn't use that as a reasoning - we thought such wasn't in the cards ever in the Panhandle, and then Michael broke the rules in 2018. There's no reason why a category 4 or 5 can't hit that region.

I totally agree, I’m just saying it’s extremely rare. Of course it could happen again within a few years, but climatology says likely

It isn't climatology.. it just hasn't happened yet.

[kevin]

00z hurricane models and a blend, high-end cat 4 landfall. Easily the most bullish the hurricane models have been this year and tbh one of the most impressive hurricane runs in general in the Atlantic. We're talking a potential pressure drop of up to 70 - 80 mbar within 48 hours and a wind increase up to 70 - 90 kt in the sime timeframe. Very ominous for Florida.

HWRF
PEAK: 921 mb @ 81 hrs | 122 kt @ 81 hrs
hr / pressure (mb) / wind (kt)
00 / 1005 / 21
06 / 1002 / 34 - TD
12 / 1002 / 40 - TS
18 / 998 / 46
24 / 996 / 41
30 / 993 / 45
36 / 989 / 53
42 / 981 / 52
48 / 973 / 63
54 / 965 / 69 - C1
60 / 951 / 94 - C2
66 / 938 / 108 - C3
72 / 928 / 115 - C4
78 / 922 / 118
84 / 921 / 120
90 / 922 / 115 - landfall
96 / 944 / 61

HMON
PEAK: 909 mb @ 96 hrs | 126 kt @ 87 hrs
hr / pressure (mb) / wind (kt)
00 / 1006 / 24
06 / 1001 / 33 - TD
12 / 1001 / 43 - TS
18 / 1001 / 36
24 / 999 / 33
30 / 996 / 46
36 / 993 / 44
42 / 986 / 53
48 / 982 / 51
54 / 973 / 62
60 / 963 / 82 - C1
66 / 950 / 100 - C3
72 / 941 / 104
78 / 932 / 123 - C4
84 / 927 / 111
90 / 917 / 122
96 / 909 / 124 - landfall
102 / 944 / 92

HAFS-A
PEAK: 923 mb @ 84 hrs | 132 kt @ 87 hrs
hr / pressure (mb) / wind (kt)
00 / 1004 / 25
06 / 998 / 44 - TS
12 / 996 / 54
18 / 993 / 46
24 / 991 / 47
30 / 985 / 50
36 / 984 / 47
42 / 979 / 51
48 / 967 / 61
54 / 956 / 79 - C1
60 / 946 / 99 - C3
66 / 944 / 90
72 / 938 / 104
78 / 933 / 120 - C4
84 / 923 / 127
90 / 926 / 124 - landfall
96 / 956 / 52

HAFS-B
PEAK: 912 mb @ 84 hrs | 144 kt @ 84 hrs
hr / pressure (mb) / wind (kt)
00 / 999 / 26
06 / 991 / 40 - TS
12 / 999 / 44
18 / 996 / 46
24 / 993 / 51
30 / 993 / 51
36 / 989 / 50
42 / 982 / 59
48 / 978 / 73 - C1
54 / 968 / 82
60 / 958 / 95 - C2
66 / 948 / 103 - C3
72 / 937 / 108
78 / 922 / 128 - C4
84 / 912 / 144 - C5
90 / 913 / 139 - landfall
96 / 954 / 50

Blend
PEAK: 920 mb @ 90 hrs | 126 kt @ 84 hrs
hr / pressure (mb) / wind (kt)
00 / 1004 / 24
06 / 998 / 38 - TS
12 / 1000 / 45
18 / 997 / 44
24 / 995 / 43
30 / 992 / 48
36 / 989 / 49
42 / 982 / 54
48 / 975 / 62
54 / 966 / 73 - C1
60 / 955 / 93 - C2
66 / 945 / 100 - C3
72 / 936 / 108
78 / 927 / 122 - C4
84 / 921 / 126
90 / 920 / 125 - landfall
96 / 941 / 72

[kevin]

The new cycle has started, let the model watching begin. We start with 06z ICON, which peaks at 968 mb at +84 hrs. Big Bend landfall near Perry. West compared to the 00z run.

[Nimbus]

HMON joins in with 909mb near landfall... winds "only" mid-range Cat 4

A strengthening 909 mb storm would likely be about 150 kt winds.

That will probably be the worst landfall prediction we will see, fortunately its the east outlier.
Within 3 days till landfall we should start to see the models narrowing consensus(for the official warnings).
Any track east of -84 near 28N and its lights out for Tampa bay.

[GalvestonDuck]

0z GFS then moves it near Atlanta still with a cat 3 pressure (967mb) and still hurricane strength over East Tennessee. Inland folks are not going to be prepared for this.

Has the Atlanta area ever been hit but something stronger than an inland depression or tropical storm?

[crownweather]

0z GFS then moves it near Atlanta still with a cat 3 pressure (967mb) and still hurricane strength over East Tennessee. Inland folks are not going to be prepared for this.

Has the Atlanta area ever been hit but something stronger than an inland depression or tropical storm?

Yes. I believe Opal in 1995 was a pretty significant impact for the Atlanta metro.


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[Keldeo1997]

GFS comes in slightly weaker when it enters the gulf but has a stronger peak at 940Mbs

[Nimbus]

06Z GFS has a little stronger ridging over Virginia but similar solution to 00z for track into big bend area as a ~950 MB hurricane.

[kevin]

06z GFS joins the hurricane models in their prediction of a high-end cat 4, 937 mb peak .

[Hammy]

0z GFS then moves it near Atlanta still with a cat 3 pressure (967mb) and still hurricane strength over East Tennessee. Inland folks are not going to be prepared for this.

Has the Atlanta area ever been hit but something stronger than an inland depression or tropical storm?

If you're asking if anything as ever reached Atlanta while still at hurricane intensity, I don't believe so. But Opal was pretty close.

[chris_fit]

Here are the last 4 GFS Runs. Eastern shifts continue. Getting a little uneasy here in Tampa area... This is wayyy to close for comfort. Especially when you think about all the storms that trended right of track... Charley, Ian, Irma, etc...

[Nimbus]

Here are the last 4 GFS Runs. Eastern shifts continue. Getting a little uneasy here in Tampa area... This is wayyy to close for comfort.

https://i.imgur.com/cLh9LnO.gif

Eastern shift in the GFS despite slightly stronger ridging over Virginia (they want to keep Tampa Bay alert?)
Euro should be interesting they had the stronger ridge than GFS 00z run.