Nimbus wrote:Western quadrants still exposed probably near 19.9 -84.4 now should be Hermine?
You mean Helene, right?
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Nimbus wrote:Western quadrants still exposed probably near 19.9 -84.4 now should be Hermine?
Lightning48 wrote:Good morning. I believe I read a few post back that cyclone had mentioned that the center had relocated under the heavy confection to the east if that’s the case, will that change future forecast tracks?
Pasmorade wrote:Nimbus wrote:Western quadrants still exposed probably near 19.9 -84.4 now should be Hermine?
You mean Helene, right?
underthwx wrote:kevin wrote:Wxman is one of the forum's most experienced and knowlegable members. Thank you for all your valuable contributions. I guess his years of experience have made him a bit more conservative regarding storm intensity compared to others on the forum (like me). Because of this, whenever he does put out concerning messages or warnings regarding a TC I'm immediately on high alert. We all know what happened to Ian's east shifts, it doesn't take much for this to change to a MH storm surge event for Tampa.
I agree Kevin......Xman is valuable to Storm 2K....he is among many here on 2K...that are phenomenally gifted with weather knowledge.....including yourself bro....
Frank P wrote:Is that the LLC that it just spit out, or another vortex spinning around.. will post a loop of the latest images
https://i.ibb.co/B3rxsKJ/sat.jpg
SoupBone wrote:wxman57 wrote:TallyTracker wrote:I see a lot of talk about the right hooks many storms make on approach to landfall along the west coast of Florida and the Big Bend. I was thinking that was likely to occur too; however, one item sticks out as a difference to those situations. The upper low over the southeast is going to impart a NW motion after landfall. A right hook followed by a left hook means I think the track forecast could more likely error in either direction versus the normal trough pulling the storm northeast.
That is true. The storm will be steered by the upper low over Arkansas Wednesday that is moving SW. That will result in a gradual turn to the NW Thursday night/Friday. Uncertainty is how close to Tampa will it pass Thursday morning before the more northerly track?
With that eventual left turn, I'm curious how close this gets to Atlanta, and how much punch she will still be packing at that time. Atlanta doesn't really do well with tropical systems. This isn't to take away from the immediate Florida threat, just something I've been thinking about with that NW trajectory after landfall.
wxman57 wrote:underthwx wrote:kevin wrote:Wxman is one of the forum's most experienced and knowlegable members. Thank you for all your valuable contributions. I guess his years of experience have made him a bit more conservative regarding storm intensity compared to others on the forum (like me). Because of this, whenever he does put out concerning messages or warnings regarding a TC I'm immediately on high alert. We all know what happened to Ian's east shifts, it doesn't take much for this to change to a MH storm surge event for Tampa.
I agree Kevin......Xman is valuable to Storm 2K....he is among many here on 2K...that are phenomenally gifted with weather knowledge.....including yourself bro....
Thanks, guys. I usually don't have much time to post when a storm is near the U.S. I started forecasting TCs worldwide in 1980. First storm was Allen. I remember working 16 days in a row. Giant, powerful storm. In 1985, when Elena formed, I told my mother on the MS coast to get a generator. Later, the hurricane appeared to be threatening the FL Peninsula. My mother was unhappy with my suggestion after spending the money on the generator. However, it turned west and raked the MS coast, knocking her out of power for 3 weeks. The generator really helped.
In 2004, my boss and I were handling Charlie's forecast. With every satellite image, it was tracking right of the forecast. We could not adjust the track to the east quickly enough.
The steering for Helene-to-be appears more clear cut, with a narrow gap between the upper low to the west and ridge to the east. However, the models always keep the ridge too strong, allowing for a track farther east. Be prepared on the west coast of Florida for a larger storm surge. In addition, the fast forward speed will spread hurricane force wind gusts all across eastern Georgia.
Michele B wrote:SoupBone wrote:wxman57 wrote:
That is true. The storm will be steered by the upper low over Arkansas Wednesday that is moving SW. That will result in a gradual turn to the NW Thursday night/Friday. Uncertainty is how close to Tampa will it pass Thursday morning before the more northerly track?
With that eventual left turn, I'm curious how close this gets to Atlanta, and how much punch she will still be packing at that time. Atlanta doesn't really do well with tropical systems. This isn't to take away from the immediate Florida threat, just something I've been thinking about with that NW trajectory after landfall.
No, this does not take away from the Florida threats (from hurricanes), because Atlanta building codes are probably not up to the standards (they keep raising!) for Florida homes to have in order to withstand hurricane force winds. Lately, they are raising the standards for flood waters too. Making homes have to build 4, 6, or even as high as 8 or 10 feet higher.
I don't think many consider what kind of impacts hurricanes still could have further inland, especially as far inland and north as Atlanta!
I think Hugo was a good example of how inadequate preparations can be for inland storm damage.
wxman57 wrote:underthwx wrote:kevin wrote:Wxman is one of the forum's most experienced and knowlegable members. Thank you for all your valuable contributions. I guess his years of experience have made him a bit more conservative regarding storm intensity compared to others on the forum (like me). Because of this, whenever he does put out concerning messages or warnings regarding a TC I'm immediately on high alert. We all know what happened to Ian's east shifts, it doesn't take much for this to change to a MH storm surge event for Tampa.
I agree Kevin......Xman is valuable to Storm 2K....he is among many here on 2K...that are phenomenally gifted with weather knowledge.....including yourself bro....
Thanks, guys. I usually don't have much time to post when a storm is near the U.S. I started forecasting TCs worldwide in 1980. First storm was Allen. I remember working 16 days in a row. Giant, powerful storm. In 1985, when Elena formed, I told my mother on the MS coast to get a generator. Later, the hurricane appeared to be threatening the FL Peninsula. My mother was unhappy with my suggestion after spending the money on the generator. However, it turned west and raked the MS coast, knocking her out of power for 3 weeks. The generator really helped.
In 2004, my boss and I were handling Charlie's forecast. With every satellite image, it was tracking right of the forecast. We could not adjust the track to the east quickly enough.
The steering for Helene-to-be appears more clear cut, with a narrow gap between the upper low to the west and ridge to the east. However, the models always keep the ridge too strong, allowing for a track farther east. Be prepared on the west coast of Florida for a larger storm surge. In addition, the fast forward speed will spread hurricane force wind gusts all across eastern Georgia.
Hugo1989 wrote:HELEN!!!!
Steve wrote:947 and awfully close to landfall at 60 hours (Thursday 8pm local time). That's a major. Sorry wrong thread. We were going over the ICON as it filled in on the models thread. But here's the almost final solution before landfall for everyone on this thread.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=
Steve wrote:947 and awfully close to landfall at 60 hours (Thursday 8pm local time). That's a major. Sorry wrong thread. We were going over the ICON as it filled in on the models thread. But here's the almost final solution before landfall for everyone on this thread.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=
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