ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Pasmorade]

Western quadrants still exposed probably near 19.9 -84.4 now should be Hermine?

You mean Helene, right?

[toad strangler]

Good morning. I believe I read a few post back that cyclone had mentioned that the center had relocated under the heavy confection to the east if that’s the case, will that change future forecast tracks?

The relocation E thing has been talked about for well over 24 hours and regardless the modeled track stays very similar over the long run. The only thing I would worry about if I was on the W coast of FL is a right shift that some well known storms have done in the recent past. Even a short lived hook before getting back on track could mean a world of difference when you are talking about this angle of approach to FL. Obviously every set up has it's own quirks but I wouldn't expect a significant change in overall track.

[Frank P]

Is that the LLC that it just spit out, or another vortex spinning around.. will post a loop of the latest images

[Nimbus]

Western quadrants still exposed probably near 19.9 -84.4 now should be Hermine?

You mean Helene, right?

Looks like its closer to 19.7N now coming out of the convection.

[Frank P]

[wxman57]

Wxman is one of the forum's most experienced and knowlegable members. Thank you for all your valuable contributions. I guess his years of experience have made him a bit more conservative regarding storm intensity compared to others on the forum (like me ). Because of this, whenever he does put out concerning messages or warnings regarding a TC I'm immediately on high alert. We all know what happened to Ian's east shifts, it doesn't take much for this to change to a MH storm surge event for Tampa.

I agree Kevin......Xman is valuable to Storm 2K....he is among many here on 2K...that are phenomenally gifted with weather knowledge.....including yourself bro....

Thanks, guys. I usually don't have much time to post when a storm is near the U.S. I started forecasting TCs worldwide in 1980. First storm was Allen. I remember working 16 days in a row. Giant, powerful storm. In 1985, when Elena formed, I told my mother on the MS coast to get a generator. Later, the hurricane appeared to be threatening the FL Peninsula. My mother was unhappy with my suggestion after spending the money on the generator. However, it turned west and raked the MS coast, knocking her out of power for 3 weeks. The generator really helped.

In 2004, my boss and I were handling Charlie's forecast. With every satellite image, it was tracking right of the forecast. We could not adjust the track to the east quickly enough.

The steering for Helene-to-be appears more clear cut, with a narrow gap between the upper low to the west and ridge to the east. However, the models always keep the ridge too strong, allowing for a track farther east. Be prepared on the west coast of Florida for a larger storm surge. In addition, the fast forward speed will spread hurricane force wind gusts all across eastern Georgia.

[Pipelines182]

Is that the LLC that it just spit out, or another vortex spinning around.. will post a loop of the latest images
https://i.ibb.co/B3rxsKJ/sat.jpg

That's right where the center is, so I would assume that's it. Sometimes the LLC and MLC can rotate around each other a bit when they're aligning, that could be what's happening, or the LLC is getting spit out and we're back to square one again

Man, cyclogenesis is so dang hard to predict, might as well just roll a dice.

[psyclone]

When WXMAN57 speaks I listen...even if I don't like the message. It's the bay area so I'm holding out for a better deal!

[Michele B]

I see a lot of talk about the right hooks many storms make on approach to landfall along the west coast of Florida and the Big Bend. I was thinking that was likely to occur too; however, one item sticks out as a difference to those situations. The upper low over the southeast is going to impart a NW motion after landfall. A right hook followed by a left hook means I think the track forecast could more likely error in either direction versus the normal trough pulling the storm northeast.

That is true. The storm will be steered by the upper low over Arkansas Wednesday that is moving SW. That will result in a gradual turn to the NW Thursday night/Friday. Uncertainty is how close to Tampa will it pass Thursday morning before the more northerly track?

With that eventual left turn, I'm curious how close this gets to Atlanta, and how much punch she will still be packing at that time. Atlanta doesn't really do well with tropical systems. This isn't to take away from the immediate Florida threat, just something I've been thinking about with that NW trajectory after landfall.

No, this does not take away from the Florida threats (from hurricanes), because Atlanta building codes are probably not up to the standards (they keep raising!) for Florida homes to have in order to withstand hurricane force winds. Lately, they are raising the standards for flood waters too. Making homes have to build 4, 6, or even as high as 8 or 10 feet higher.

I don't think many consider what kind of impacts hurricanes still could have further inland, especially as far inland and north as Atlanta!

I think Hugo was a good example of how inadequate preparations can be for inland storm damage.

[SoupBone]

Wxman is one of the forum's most experienced and knowlegable members. Thank you for all your valuable contributions. I guess his years of experience have made him a bit more conservative regarding storm intensity compared to others on the forum (like me ). Because of this, whenever he does put out concerning messages or warnings regarding a TC I'm immediately on high alert. We all know what happened to Ian's east shifts, it doesn't take much for this to change to a MH storm surge event for Tampa.

I agree Kevin......Xman is valuable to Storm 2K....he is among many here on 2K...that are phenomenally gifted with weather knowledge.....including yourself bro....

Thanks, guys. I usually don't have much time to post when a storm is near the U.S. I started forecasting TCs worldwide in 1980. First storm was Allen. I remember working 16 days in a row. Giant, powerful storm. In 1985, when Elena formed, I told my mother on the MS coast to get a generator. Later, the hurricane appeared to be threatening the FL Peninsula. My mother was unhappy with my suggestion after spending the money on the generator. However, it turned west and raked the MS coast, knocking her out of power for 3 weeks. The generator really helped.

In 2004, my boss and I were handling Charlie's forecast. With every satellite image, it was tracking right of the forecast. We could not adjust the track to the east quickly enough.

The steering for Helene-to-be appears more clear cut, with a narrow gap between the upper low to the west and ridge to the east. However, the models always keep the ridge too strong, allowing for a track farther east. Be prepared on the west coast of Florida for a larger storm surge. In addition, the fast forward speed will spread hurricane force wind gusts all across eastern Georgia.

I don't know your true identity, but I've been following you since I joined here in 2005. Thank you!

[InfernoFlameCat]

That is true. The storm will be steered by the upper low over Arkansas Wednesday that is moving SW. That will result in a gradual turn to the NW Thursday night/Friday. Uncertainty is how close to Tampa will it pass Thursday morning before the more northerly track?

With that eventual left turn, I'm curious how close this gets to Atlanta, and how much punch she will still be packing at that time. Atlanta doesn't really do well with tropical systems. This isn't to take away from the immediate Florida threat, just something I've been thinking about with that NW trajectory after landfall.

No, this does not take away from the Florida threats (from hurricanes), because Atlanta building codes are probably not up to the standards (they keep raising!) for Florida homes to have in order to withstand hurricane force winds. Lately, they are raising the standards for flood waters too. Making homes have to build 4, 6, or even as high as 8 or 10 feet higher.

I don't think many consider what kind of impacts hurricanes still could have further inland, especially as far inland and north as Atlanta!

I think Hugo was a good example of how inadequate preparations can be for inland storm damage.

Yes, Irma and Zeta did terrible damage to my town of buford, which is an hour north of Atlanta. Zeta in fact killed two people in my town and destroyed several homes. Irma knocked out power for almost a week. And I am about 300 miles Inland

[underthwx]

Wxman is one of the forum's most experienced and knowlegable members. Thank you for all your valuable contributions. I guess his years of experience have made him a bit more conservative regarding storm intensity compared to others on the forum (like me ). Because of this, whenever he does put out concerning messages or warnings regarding a TC I'm immediately on high alert. We all know what happened to Ian's east shifts, it doesn't take much for this to change to a MH storm surge event for Tampa.

I agree Kevin......Xman is valuable to Storm 2K....he is among many here on 2K...that are phenomenally gifted with weather knowledge.....including yourself bro....

Thanks, guys. I usually don't have much time to post when a storm is near the U.S. I started forecasting TCs worldwide in 1980. First storm was Allen. I remember working 16 days in a row. Giant, powerful storm. In 1985, when Elena formed, I told my mother on the MS coast to get a generator. Later, the hurricane appeared to be threatening the FL Peninsula. My mother was unhappy with my suggestion after spending the money on the generator. However, it turned west and raked the MS coast, knocking her out of power for 3 weeks. The generator really helped.

In 2004, my boss and I were handling Charlie's forecast. With every satellite image, it was tracking right of the forecast. We could not adjust the track to the east quickly enough.

The steering for Helene-to-be appears more clear cut, with a narrow gap between the upper low to the west and ridge to the east. However, the models always keep the ridge too strong, allowing for a track farther east. Be prepared on the west coast of Florida for a larger storm surge. In addition, the fast forward speed will spread hurricane force wind gusts all across eastern Georgia.

You are welcome Xman!.....this is epic valuable information....as always!!!....thankyou for your service...

[Poonwalker]

One of the problems in the Pinellas and Tampa area is the sheer number of older houses that are sitting in evacuation zones right near the coast. Many are owned by retirees and elderly people that will have trouble leaving the area. I know about 20 through my work that live in the Madeira beach area that have been recently flooded twice, Ian and then a no name storm. Anything over 5 feet floods these homes which is a problem that needs to be fixed. They are like resettable buttons that drive up insurance rates. That of course is another topic. Fingers crossed here.

[fllawyer]

Looks like NHC pulled trigger to upgrade…

[kevin]

We have Helene!

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 84.3W
ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

[StPeteMike]

HELEN!!!!

Helene over here saying “It’s Helene with an E at the end, respect the name!”

Well, here we go folks!

[Kazmit]

947 and awfully close to landfall at 60 hours (Thursday 8pm local time). That's a major. Sorry wrong thread. We were going over the ICON as it filled in on the models thread. But here's the almost final solution before landfall for everyone on this thread.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

ICON stronger is a worrying sign…

[HurricaneBelle]

Noted that with the latest advisory suite the hurricane wind probability for Tampa is down to 8% from 13% yesterday. 70% for TS winds, which is up, and 23% for high-end TS winds.

[ChrisH-UK]

GOES-16 Meso Sector loop in Red band with the Octane cloud motion and speed. The colours are the height then direction and speed, it shows the circulation is half under the the main convective clouds.

source - https://col.st/YJFTD

[Poonwalker]

947 and awfully close to landfall at 60 hours (Thursday 8pm local time). That's a major. Sorry wrong thread. We were going over the ICON as it filled in on the models thread. But here's the almost final solution before landfall for everyone on this thread.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

That’s a west shift. Yay!