#1332 Postby typhoonty » Tue Sep 24, 2024 10:20 pm
weeniepatrol wrote:Travorum wrote:A look at the TDR center fix data provides good insight into the up-and-down pressure readings at buoy 42056 earlier this evening. You can see over the first three passes that the LLC is wobbling around the rough location of the buoy (19.82N 84.98W):
https://i.imgur.com/B9tj4vE.png
I'm a bit confused.. from the 11pm advisory:
Helene continues to become better organized with increased
convective banding features and an overall more symmetrical-looking
cloud pattern. The convection is very deep with cloud tops to -80
deg C or colder. Doppler velocity data from a NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate no significant vertical tilt of the
vortex in the low- to mid-troposphere. This suggests that the
vertical wind shear is low. Earlier flight-level wind data from the
aircraft indicate the the maximum winds are near 50 kt, although
this may be conservative.
This is saying that the vortex is stacked vertically, which is a prerequisite to any significant strengthening event, as is currently expected.
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FSU Meteorology student, opinions are mine, 20 years experience covering TC's, consult NHC/Local officials when making decisions.
Gabrielle '01, Michelle '01, Charley '04, Frances '04, Dennis '05, Katrina '05, Rita '05, Wilma '05, Fay '08, Isaac '12 Hermine '16, Irma '17, Michael '18, Eta '20, Elsa '21, IAN '22, Idalia '23, Debby '24, Helene '24