ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ObsessedMiami
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1401 Postby ObsessedMiami » Wed Sep 25, 2024 4:17 am

Weather radio coincided with my alarm this morning: Tropical Storm warning now for Miami Dade as well
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1402 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Sep 25, 2024 4:36 am

ObsessedMiami wrote:Weather radio coincided with my alarm this morning: Tropical Storm warning now for Miami Dade as well

I saw a snarky tweet from one of our local mets about not being under any watch/warning last night as the intensity cycle was underway. I was looking at the wind fields for later tonight and tomorrow and was surprised they didn't have at least a watch, they went straight to a warning instead. I dont recall seeing this much of the state watch/warned..maybe irma. This a surge/wind event,hopefully those people get out of the way of surge. They evacuated all of Taylor's country in preparation.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1403 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Sep 25, 2024 4:40 am

caneman wrote:Does anyone know how accurate the IBM model is this close in? I just read that this model takes Helene in around Cedar Key.

Article i found on it. I guess it's based off AI
https://research.ibm.com/blog/foundatio ... er-climate

GRAF was good yesterday on track and intensity; at this point, we are getting into less model watching and more watching the real weather.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1404 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 25, 2024 4:46 am

South Florida with a TS warning.

 https://x.com/NWSMiami/status/1838876702124208481

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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1405 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Sep 25, 2024 4:51 am

Image
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1406 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Sep 25, 2024 4:52 am

cycloneye wrote:South Florida with a TS warning.

 https://x.com/NWSMiami/status/1838876702124208481



I didn’t expect to wake up to the entire state covered in warnings and watches. I guess schools will probably be closed tomorrow. My teenagers are already up this morning checking for school closures.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1407 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Sep 25, 2024 5:02 am

Those are some serious cloud tops.

Image
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1408 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Sep 25, 2024 5:05 am

eastcoastFL wrote:
cycloneye wrote:South Florida with a TS warning.

 https://x.com/NWSMiami/status/1838876702124208481



I didn’t expect to wake up to the entire state covered in warnings and watches. I guess schools will probably be closed tomorrow. My teenagers are already up this morning checking for school closures.

Millions of kids hitting refresh looking for a school closure :D
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1409 Postby sponger » Wed Sep 25, 2024 5:06 am

Graf is showing a Perry hit. That poor town is having a heck of a season.

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1895026447632685
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1410 Postby StormPyrate » Wed Sep 25, 2024 5:14 am

It already looks east of the track here
https://zoom.earth/storms/helene-2024/#overlays=wind
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1411 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Sep 25, 2024 5:15 am

jlauderdal wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
cycloneye wrote:South Florida with a TS warning.

 https://x.com/NWSMiami/status/1838876702124208481



I didn’t expect to wake up to the entire state covered in warnings and watches. I guess schools will probably be closed tomorrow. My teenagers are already up this morning checking for school closures.

Millions of kids hitting refresh looking for a school closure :D


My daughter was up before me and that never happens. lol
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1412 Postby kevin » Wed Sep 25, 2024 5:19 am

There is our monster. Curious what recon will find. As forecasted by the models it's starting to take off while passing Yucatan.

Image
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1413 Postby AlabamaDave » Wed Sep 25, 2024 5:23 am

This NHC track is a nightmare for Tallahassee and its very dense tree canopy.
Image
Last edited by AlabamaDave on Wed Sep 25, 2024 5:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1414 Postby Nimbus » Wed Sep 25, 2024 5:23 am

sponger wrote:Graf is showing a Perry hit. That poor town is having a heck of a season.

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1895026447632685


Tallahasee is now on the strong side of the track of a major hurricane that is forecast to remain strong well inland.
That and the windfields mean significant surge in the Tampa bay area.
Tropical storm winds over such a wide area are likely to really mess up the power grid.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1415 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Sep 25, 2024 5:26 am

These recon flights are still not measuring rain rates, any idea why? Is it just not showing up on TT?
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1416 Postby caneman » Wed Sep 25, 2024 5:28 am

StormPyrate wrote:It already looks east of the track here
https://zoom.earth/storms/helene-2024/#overlays=wind


Indeed it does. Based on that it looks due North last 3 hours. Thanks. Downloaded the app.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1417 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Sep 25, 2024 5:29 am

kevin wrote:There is our monster. Curious what recon will find. As forecasted by the models it's starting to take off while passing Yucatan.

https://i.imgur.com/JNWahGf.jpeg


Every new frame looks more impressive and a bit larger. I’d imagine that center will clear out later this morning.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1418 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Sep 25, 2024 5:30 am

It looks like it may have slowed down a little bit so it could be working its way around the periphery of the ridge. Might see a more NNW to N heading soon.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1419 Postby caneman » Wed Sep 25, 2024 5:31 am

eastcoastFL wrote:It looks like it may have slowed down a little bit so it could be working its way around the periphery of the ridge. Might see a more NNW to N heading soon.


It looks due North already unless it ends up smoothing out.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1420 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Sep 25, 2024 5:37 am

Looking very reminiscent of a WPAC Tropical Storm this morning.

Image
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