ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ObsessedMiami]

Weather radio coincided with my alarm this morning: Tropical Storm warning now for Miami Dade as well

[jlauderdal]

Weather radio coincided with my alarm this morning: Tropical Storm warning now for Miami Dade as well

I saw a snarky tweet from one of our local mets about not being under any watch/warning last night as the intensity cycle was underway. I was looking at the wind fields for later tonight and tomorrow and was surprised they didn't have at least a watch, they went straight to a warning instead. I dont recall seeing this much of the state watch/warned..maybe irma. This a surge/wind event,hopefully those people get out of the way of surge. They evacuated all of Taylor's country in preparation.

[jlauderdal]

Does anyone know how accurate the IBM model is this close in? I just read that this model takes Helene in around Cedar Key.

Article i found on it. I guess it's based off AI
https://research.ibm.com/blog/foundatio ... er-climate

GRAF was good yesterday on track and intensity; at this point, we are getting into less model watching and more watching the real weather.

[cycloneye]

South Florida with a TS warning.

 https://x.com/NWSMiami/status/1838876702124208481

[eastcoastFL]

[eastcoastFL]

South Florida with a TS warning.

 https://x.com/NWSMiami/status/1838876702124208481

I didn’t expect to wake up to the entire state covered in warnings and watches. I guess schools will probably be closed tomorrow. My teenagers are already up this morning checking for school closures.

[eastcoastFL]

Those are some serious cloud tops.

[jlauderdal]

South Florida with a TS warning.

 https://x.com/NWSMiami/status/1838876702124208481

I didn’t expect to wake up to the entire state covered in warnings and watches. I guess schools will probably be closed tomorrow. My teenagers are already up this morning checking for school closures.

Millions of kids hitting refresh looking for a school closure

[sponger]

Graf is showing a Perry hit. That poor town is having a heck of a season.

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1895026447632685

[StormPyrate]

It already looks east of the track here
https://zoom.earth/storms/helene-2024/#overlays=wind

[eastcoastFL]

South Florida with a TS warning.

 https://x.com/NWSMiami/status/1838876702124208481

I didn’t expect to wake up to the entire state covered in warnings and watches. I guess schools will probably be closed tomorrow. My teenagers are already up this morning checking for school closures.

Millions of kids hitting refresh looking for a school closure

My daughter was up before me and that never happens. lol

[kevin]

There is our monster. Curious what recon will find. As forecasted by the models it's starting to take off while passing Yucatan.

[AlabamaDave]

This NHC track is a nightmare for Tallahassee and its very dense tree canopy.

[Nimbus]

Graf is showing a Perry hit. That poor town is having a heck of a season.

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1895026447632685

Tallahasee is now on the strong side of the track of a major hurricane that is forecast to remain strong well inland.
That and the windfields mean significant surge in the Tampa bay area.
Tropical storm winds over such a wide area are likely to really mess up the power grid.

[eastcoastFL]

These recon flights are still not measuring rain rates, any idea why? Is it just not showing up on TT?

[caneman]

It already looks east of the track here
https://zoom.earth/storms/helene-2024/#overlays=wind

Indeed it does. Based on that it looks due North last 3 hours. Thanks. Downloaded the app.

[eastcoastFL]

There is our monster. Curious what recon will find. As forecasted by the models it's starting to take off while passing Yucatan.

https://i.imgur.com/JNWahGf.jpeg

Every new frame looks more impressive and a bit larger. I’d imagine that center will clear out later this morning.

[eastcoastFL]

It looks like it may have slowed down a little bit so it could be working its way around the periphery of the ridge. Might see a more NNW to N heading soon.

[caneman]

It looks like it may have slowed down a little bit so it could be working its way around the periphery of the ridge. Might see a more NNW to N heading soon.

It looks due North already unless it ends up smoothing out.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looking very reminiscent of a WPAC Tropical Storm this morning.