ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[canes92]

Miami-Dade schools
Open tomorrow

That may change tho.....this is an evolving event....impacts will be widespread unfortunately....im not sure how these school districts make decisions...regarding Helene....but im sure they are being advised by many agencies.....

True but Miami is the furthest away of where this storm is supposed to go.

[chaser1]

Thanks Belle. What link do have for that page? This is the NWS page I am referring to https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... n=-81.3484
and those details are not there, which I imagine is confusing to the public.

I've used kamala.cod.edu for 10? 15? years now, they have all the text products from every NWS office in the country. The Melbourne ZFP (zone forecast product) is at https://kamala.cod.edu/fl/latest.fpus52.KMLB.html

Thanks, I never heard of Kamala.cod.edu but it seems to consolidate NWS office forecasts. Still, strange that the same specific forecast info wouldn't be directly on the actual NWS site regardless of whether I type in my zip code, Longwood Fl, Seminole county or Orlando

[Travorum]

[Hypercane_Kyle]

A scary look for a storm this large to have this kind of structure as it's entering the GOMEX.

[MetroMike]

The track in the Gulf seems set in stone only thing that could go wrong is if it slows once near Tampa lat. I seen some models that slow it down tomorrow afternoon.

[fci]

Miami-Dade schools
Open tomorrow

That may change tho.....this is an evolving event....impacts will be widespread unfortunately....im not sure how these school districts make decisions...regarding Helene....but im sure they are being advised by many agencies.....

True but Miami is the furthest away of where this storm is supposed to go.

If they are under a Tropical Storm Warning then they should close schools.
Even if “we” think it’s unnecessary, there’s liability to think of.

[fci]

Miami-Dade schools
Open tomorrow

That may change tho.....this is an evolving event....impacts will be widespread unfortunately....im not sure how these school districts make decisions...regarding Helene....but im sure they are being advised by many agencies.....

True but Miami is the furthest away of where this storm is supposed to go.

If they are under a Tropical Storm Warning then they should close schools.
Even if “we” think it’s unnecessary, there’s liability to think of.

[Travorum]

Air Force has extrap pressure down to at least 976.4, it seems Helene has been deepening steadily for the past few hours.

Edit: 974.5mb now from the next HDOB.

[chaser1]

Thanks Belle. What link do have for that page? This is the NWS page I am referring to https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... n=-81.3484
and those details are not there, which I imagine is confusing to the public.

I've used kamala.cod.edu for 10? 15? years now, they have all the text products from every NWS office in the country. The Melbourne ZFP (zone forecast product) is at https://kamala.cod.edu/fl/latest.fpus52.KMLB.html

The graphical forecast page https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=27.9077&lon=-82.287&unit=0&lg=english&FcstType=graphical will show you the explicit forecast gusts.

I recommend using the IDSS forecast points page though if you want summarized NWS forecasts for a point i.e. https://www.weather.gov/forecastpoints/?lat=28.342&lon=-81.646&clat=28.177&clon=-82.022&zoom=14.6&basemap=openstreetmap&bbox=-19719439,1706090,-1372338,10673494&layers=RangeRings,USStates,ForecastPointPolygon,ForecastPoint,Domain,&obs=ttffffft&countyNames=t

Solid!! Links saved

[got ants?]

Thanks for your response. I suspected it wasn't built back better (sorry!). Oftentimes it is the $$$ issue. I feel very bad for those who had lovely homes there on the beach and lost it all.

Hopefully, those who are there now are smart enough to get out and be safe. I think I heard horror stories about many who would not leave, never to be seen again...

The unfortunate truth is that there are some places that people shouldn't live and I say that as someone with a vacation home on the beach in NC. We shouldn't be building or living right on the coastline in surge prone areas, it's no different than living in the floodway of a river. If people do decide to build there, the government shouldn't be bailing them out when the inevitable storm comes and destroys their home. The government should do everything they can to protect lives, but it isn't their job to protect lifestyles, especially when someone makes a poor financial decision by owning a home without sufficient insurance to cover it after a total loss.

My 1960s house will one day be destroyed by a hurricane, my insurance won't cover the very expensive rebuild, I'm ok with that.

That's one side of the coin. I've lived in the same house for 35 years, now paid off, paid insurance fir 34 years, nit one claim...BUT..

ALLSTATE, pulled out after many years of many years if no claims from me, then dumped into Florida's mess. Rates still went thru the roof. I needed to make a judgement call. Oay to upgrade my house, bew roof, windiws, or pay insurance. I chose the former. Then on top of that, the economy is killing my business. And still, otger stuff is breaking. Needed a new a/c installed. And 2 weeks ago, my fence went down (5 contractors are no shows..another story)

So I get a pit peeved when someone mentions FEMA helping folks out, not fully, when I've done rhe right thing for years, but watched event after event, like fires in Cali, floods along the Mississippi, and now, cannot currently afford the $7K policy to insure my home now. Will FEMA be there for me? (God forbid I needed it)

Hailing from Hollywood Florida

[Beef Stew]

4:00 PM CDT Wed Sep 25
Location: 22.5°N 86.6°W
Moving: N at 12 mph
Min pressure: 978 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph

[Beef Stew]

NHC is explicitly forecasting a category 4 at landfall now.

"Some of the
Rapid Intensification (RI) indices, particular DTOPS, respond to
this environment by indicating at least a 90 percent chance of a
35-kt increase in intensity over the next 24 hours. The NHC
intensity forecast now shows an intensity of 115 kt (Category 4) at
24 hours, which is mirrored by several of the regional hurricane
models and the SHIPS guidance. It should be noted that additional
strengthening is possible beyond 24 hours before Helene makes
landfall Thursday evening."

[chaser1]

The track in the Gulf seems set in stone only thing that could go wrong is if it slows once near Tampa lat. I seen some models that slow it down tomorrow afternoon.

Thats what I was thinking, but then just took a last look at vis satellite Either her vertical core is leaning N.E. / S.W. or present motion has a distinct eastward component which shouldn't be occurring until tonight or tomorrow. I'm going to assume the storm is oddly tilted for the moment and just check back in later this evening to see what's new

[aspen]

115-120 kt seems like a reasonable peak before or at landfall. It’s still going to take some time for Helene to fully recover from the dry air intrusion, and it only has 24 hours or so until landfall. If it had 36-48 hours then there would’ve been a chance for a Cat 5, but thankfully time will be a limiting factor to prevent a Michael repeat. Still gonna be a big one regardless.

[Sanibel]

Monster Dvorak...

The "Fist"...

[crimi481]

I am in Englewoo Fl west coast. I feel dry air, not the humid low pressure feeling. Dry air in the storm
Dry air is like kriptonite to Superman. Not sure if bombing out will happen. Ya think ?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

115-120 kt seems like a reasonable peak before or at landfall. It’s still going to take some time for Helene to fully recover from the dry air intrusion, and it only has 24 hours or so until landfall. If it had 36-48 hours then there would’ve been a chance for a Cat 5, but thankfully time will be a limiting factor to prevent a Michael repeat. Still gonna be a big one regardless.

You mean Michael repeat as far as winds... because I think the surge impacts are just as bad if not more so.

[caneman]

I am in Englewoo Fl west coast. I feel dry air, not the humid low pressure feeling. Dry air in the storm
Dry air is like kriptonite to Superman. Not sure if bombing out will happen. Ya think ?

Because a hurricane sucks out all surrounding moisture.

[MetroMike]

I am in Englewoo Fl west coast. I feel dry air, not the humid low pressure feeling. Dry air in the storm
Dry air is like kriptonite to Superman. Not sure if bombing out will happen. Ya think ?

You need to step outside or go to a doctor. LOL

[grapealcoholic]

Wind field still needs to tighten up