
Think this girl means business??????
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Zonacane wrote:Zonacane wrote:TomballEd wrote:
I'm not seeing that. GFS model doesn't see it either. WV isn't seeing it. (https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=gom&product=wv_rgb). I think the dry air has been worked out. There is just a hint of dry air SE of the eye, but that should mix out quickly now that Helene is as well organized as it is. Not perfectly organized, but organized.
Yes it is, collapsing convection leading into the core of the storm makes it very obvious. You can clearly see this on IR
Hell you can even see it on recon, with the drop in FL winds
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF308-1609A-HELENE.png
Powellrm wrote:Have there been a lot of people on YouTube and social media talking/posting about the “dry slot” or something? Seems to be comments about the dry slot, and limiting growth of Helene. I see a healthy hurricane that has worked out dry air, constricting, and set to make a big push prior to landfall.
tolakram wrote:NDG wrote:From my good friend Pro Met T Scott:Your boys are TOO FAR WEST with their landfall, Deni.
T. Scott believes this will PASS EAST of Apalachee Bay; NOT WEST.
2 Vort. Lobes circulating the base of the upper low/trough 1st heads SE from coastal MS/AL at 7 AM this morning. This should result in the first turn N-NE. 2nd vort. lobe comes this afternoon, emanating EASTward from Western AL/Cstl AL/SE LA bootip. diving Eastward.
The natural gravitation towards STEEP DEEPENING and strengthening will also tend to reflect a right-ward CURVE to the Northeast.
("Where abouts, T. Scott?") Central Taylor County coastline, near Dekle Beach, FL.
Only thing I do agree upon, with your favorite NHC boyz, is the STAUNCH bold prediction of a Cat. 4 135 mph hurricane.
AND that is a BOLD, GUTSY prediction BECAUSE IF you examine the ATCF 00Z suite, 9/26, NONE of them go above 115 mph, except an old, deprecated statistical model DRCL.
Sorry, a pro met talks like that?
I think the biggest issue is the curve fit between two forecast points of a fast moving storm. The NHC tries to explain this, but I feel like the method is pretty outdated at this point. A good pro met would be able to explain this without any Z's IMO. Perhaps this was meant to be a private conversation?
galaxy401 wrote:Zonacane wrote:Zonacane wrote:Yes it is, collapsing convection leading into the core of the storm makes it very obvious. You can clearly see this on IR
Hell you can even see it on recon, with the drop in FL winds
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF308-1609A-HELENE.png
How strong do you think Helene will be at landfall?
Zonacane wrote:Powellrm wrote:Have there been a lot of people on YouTube and social media talking/posting about the “dry slot” or something? Seems to be comments about the dry slot, and limiting growth of Helene. I see a healthy hurricane that has worked out dry air, constricting, and set to make a big push prior to landfall.
Helene keeps sucking in dry air, and it has negatively impacted the storm, might already be a category 4 if it hadn’t sucked in any dry air. No big push occurs with dry air eating away at the eyewall
FLLurker32 wrote:Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Travorum wrote:
Hard agree on this, especially when we're looking at another potential gulf storm as early as next weekend. And even with Helene, I don't think the people in Tampa getting up to 8 feet of surge are going to feel like they're "winning."
Yeah it really builds complacency, same mentality New Orleans had about their levees and storms missing them.
I’m glad you said this. I always roll my eyes when I hear it referred to as a surprise. There were a few close calls leading up to Katrina and more than once our Mets in FL talked about how New Orleans was a bowl and how devastating it would be if it were to get hit. Some even made full visuals to show what it would do.
Katrina wasn’t a surprise or an unknown. The impact was a result of complacency and extremely poor emergency management.
Sciencerocks wrote:https://i.imgur.com/1qMzQ7p.gif
wzrgirl1 wrote:Can somebody please post the fsu experimental global forecast models....it was one page with 5 or 6 models. I had it but I seen to have lost it.
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