ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TJRE]

Think this girl means business??????

[galaxy401]

I'm not seeing that. GFS model doesn't see it either. WV isn't seeing it. (https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=gom&product=wv_rgb). I think the dry air has been worked out. There is just a hint of dry air SE of the eye, but that should mix out quickly now that Helene is as well organized as it is. Not perfectly organized, but organized.

Yes it is, collapsing convection leading into the core of the storm makes it very obvious. You can clearly see this on IR

Hell you can even see it on recon, with the drop in FL winds
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF308-1609A-HELENE.png

How strong do you think Helene will be at landfall?

[aspen]

https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/ira1.gif

Think this girl means business??????

That outflow is gonna be stuck over New England for the next week. Incredibly annoying.

[Zonacane]

Have there been a lot of people on YouTube and social media talking/posting about the “dry slot” or something? Seems to be comments about the dry slot, and limiting growth of Helene. I see a healthy hurricane that has worked out dry air, constricting, and set to make a big push prior to landfall.

Helene keeps sucking in dry air, and it has negatively impacted the storm, might already be a category 4 if it hadn’t sucked in any dry air. No big push occurs with dry air eating away at the eyewall

[ElectricStorm]

Eye drop from the NOAA plane (which was dropped before the 962mb AF plane) finally came in and has 965mb at the surface but with no wind data. So either this drop is not accurate and should be discarded, or the pressure rose slightly before dropping 3mb before the AF pass

[NDG]

From my good friend Pro Met T Scott:

Your boys are TOO FAR WEST with their landfall, Deni.
T. Scott believes this will PASS EAST of Apalachee Bay; NOT WEST.

2 Vort. Lobes circulating the base of the upper low/trough 1st heads SE from coastal MS/AL at 7 AM this morning. This should result in the first turn N-NE. 2nd vort. lobe comes this afternoon, emanating EASTward from Western AL/Cstl AL/SE LA bootip. diving Eastward.

The natural gravitation towards STEEP DEEPENING and strengthening will also tend to reflect a right-ward CURVE to the Northeast.

("Where abouts, T. Scott?") Central Taylor County coastline, near Dekle Beach, FL.

Only thing I do agree upon, with your favorite NHC boyz, is the STAUNCH bold prediction of a Cat. 4 135 mph hurricane.
AND that is a BOLD, GUTSY prediction BECAUSE IF you examine the ATCF 00Z suite, 9/26, NONE of them go above 115 mph, except an old, deprecated statistical model DRCL.

Sorry, a pro met talks like that?

I think the biggest issue is the curve fit between two forecast points of a fast moving storm. The NHC tries to explain this, but I feel like the method is pretty outdated at this point. A good pro met would be able to explain this without any Z's IMO. Perhaps this was meant to be a private conversation?

Yes it was sent to me private but he is also outspoken like this on his Facebook page.

[Zonacane]

Yes it is, collapsing convection leading into the core of the storm makes it very obvious. You can clearly see this on IR

Hell you can even see it on recon, with the drop in FL winds
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF308-1609A-HELENE.png

How strong do you think Helene will be at landfall?

I’m not sure it will make landfall as a major hurricane

[Powellrm]

Have there been a lot of people on YouTube and social media talking/posting about the “dry slot” or something? Seems to be comments about the dry slot, and limiting growth of Helene. I see a healthy hurricane that has worked out dry air, constricting, and set to make a big push prior to landfall.

Helene keeps sucking in dry air, and it has negatively impacted the storm, might already be a category 4 if it hadn’t sucked in any dry air. No big push occurs with dry air eating away at the eyewall

I think we’re missing each other on a semantic level, but saying the same thing. I’d say the “negative impact” is that it hasn’t blown up to a cat 4 Major, but not negative enough to weaken the storm. In fact, Helene has held her ground and is still in a position to intensify significantly. I’m appreciative to see the delay in strengthening.

[Travorum]

Convection popping up in the southeast just in time for recon to sample it.

[MGC]

Eye should clear out in the next couple of hours. Expect continued intensification with possible RI if deep convection can finally wrap. Hurricane has been plagued by dry air intrusion lets hope that continues. I think the probability has diminished but is still possible. Should landfall as strong Cat-3 not the Cat-4 I was fearing. Surge will be major issue. Helene will be the Nature's Coast's Katrina. Hwy 98 will likely be washed away in areas. Small towns along the coast obliterated.....another Mexico Beach......MGC

[xironman]

I remember during Ike that one of the pro mets said that the convection will point you to where the storm is going to go. I'm going with the left hand side

[Hurricane2022]

I guess the Dry Air show has unfortunately ended. We should see the RI phase starting in the next couple hours.

[sponger]

If the last Icon is correct, Gainesville could get as much wind as Tallahassee. Do not fret for our college students, they were partying well into the night. On another note, outer eye looks to be winning out over the inner one.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=ir

[Sciencerocks]

[Nimbus]

Hard agree on this, especially when we're looking at another potential gulf storm as early as next weekend. And even with Helene, I don't think the people in Tampa getting up to 8 feet of surge are going to feel like they're "winning."

Yeah it really builds complacency, same mentality New Orleans had about their levees and storms missing them.

I’m glad you said this. I always roll my eyes when I hear it referred to as a surprise. There were a few close calls leading up to Katrina and more than once our Mets in FL talked about how New Orleans was a bowl and how devastating it would be if it were to get hit. Some even made full visuals to show what it would do.

Katrina wasn’t a surprise or an unknown. The impact was a result of complacency and extremely poor emergency management.

Buoy located near 25°42'51" N 83°39'0" W just reported a 27.9 ft wave so Helene is pushing some water around.

[canes92]

Hoping she just stays weaker than expected.

[NDG]

Not sure if anyone mentioned how wide Helene's eye currently is, crazy!

G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 55 nautical miles (63 statute miles)

[galaxy401]

https://i.imgur.com/1qMzQ7p.gif

Did something happen with the floater? There's a nearly 24 hour jump in that loop.

[chaser1]

Can somebody please post the fsu experimental global forecast models....it was one page with 5 or 6 models. I had it but I seen to have lost it.

I thought that was completely unavailable to the public and for "NHC eyes only"??

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Hot towers firing off...