ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[FLLurker32]

Welp, does anyone have some spare crow?

I know its a figure of speech and you joke but crow is eaten round them parts' of Florida bout to get hit. Still something you see in the rural areas, not unheard of. Squirrels too.

Naw, I never heard of that. Mullet maybe, but crow??

It isn’t true, or at the very least hasn’t been in the past 40 years. I’m from about 45 miles away from Cedar Key. There’s a lot of people, including in my family, that’ll go for deer and hog. Mullet is big in the area, I can’t even exclude the occasional squirrel but not crow.

[sasha_B]

920 ceiling

Agreed. We're at that stage where intensification is happening faster than best track & NHC advisories are updating, so the data from recon in these hours leading up to landfall are going to be crucial to understanding the storm's true 'peak' intensity. Low- to mid-920s seems like a strong upper (lower?) limit, since Helene's running out of time over water, but I wonder if the storm's not already pushing at ～940hPa & 115+ kt sustained winds.

[xironman]

Ryan Maue
@RyanMaue
·
10m
Helene is part of a massive circulation over the entire Southeast U.S.

We thought this would hold back the storm w/negative shear or dry air. Nope. Helene turned the tables to its advantage instead drawing baroclinic energy from the deep-layer trough. Really bad.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GYbpp8xaUAA-MHk?format=jpg&name=small
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GYbpp8ua4AATCNh?format=png&name=medium

Yeah the position of the weird cutoff will enhance the surface low to the SE, its the way it works

[Beef Stew]

horrifying.

https://i.imgur.com/LuSE1Vm.gif

Take this storm and move it southeast a bit and I'd be hard pressed to distinguish it from Ian. They look uncannily similar, both in structure and evolution. Ian had a bit more time to intensify upon final approach, but Helene is still an extremely powerful storm.

[Sciencerocks]

[Travorum]

ADT Final T# is up to 6.0/115kts, and that was before the hot tower blowing up in the SE closed off the W circle.

[Nimbus]

43,000 without power in Tampa Bay

NHC shifted track to the crack..
Might save Tally?


https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

[WaveBreaking]

Possible stadium effect showing up on geocolor imagery

[ROCK]

RECON going straight for a center pass....wont be long...go with 945MB.

[MarioProtVI]

Decent chance recon finds C4 support this pass. Eye is rapidly warming and up to 2.1C so far according to satellite estimates. Ceiling of about 130-135 kt, and an outside chance of Cat 5 is certainly not impossible (although I find it unlikely)

[galaxy401]

Ugh I'm going to be busy for the next 2 hours so I'm going to miss the Recon readings.

[caneman]

43,000 without power in Tampa Bay

NHC shifted track to the crack..
Might save Tally?

Y




https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

Probably but it's looked like Perry from the beginning.

[Beef Stew]

Guessing 947 mb for the first pass

[weeniepatrol]

[PavelGaborik10]

946 is my guess

[TomballEd]

TS conditions here. Extra spicy. Power flashes....we're going dark soon

My son, who's off 19/Tampa Rd and lost power for almost a day during Debby, is currently part of a 3K customer power outage. My neighborhood has underground lines and stayed up all through Debby and is still up, but something can always happen downstream.

A month and a half before Beryl, a derecho with embedded tornado spinups at the front edge of the line twisted and toppled the big metal transmission towers, the type Godzilla used to tear down. If those go down, buried lines in the subdivision may not help. They may also intentionally black out areas of the grid so lineman can fixed damaged lines that aren't buried without risk of electrocution.

Waiting on NOAA recon to get to the center.

[Teban54]

Damn.

[Kazmit]

Beautiful but scary.

[Coolcruiseman]

I’ll make a guess of 945

[cheezyWXguy]

Those mesovorts are stretching and warping the crap out of the eyewall. Lightning everywhere in the core except the sw quad. It’s been a while since the last flight registered 951mb, I’d guess low 940s is what they’ll find.