ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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FLLurker32
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3041 Postby FLLurker32 » Thu Sep 26, 2024 4:34 pm

chaser1 wrote:
BIFF_THE_UNRULY wrote:
aspen wrote:Welp, does anyone have some spare crow?


I know its a figure of speech and you joke but crow is eaten round them parts' of Florida bout to get hit. Still something you see in the rural areas, not unheard of. Squirrels too.


Naw, I never heard of that. Mullet maybe, but crow??


It isn’t true, or at the very least hasn’t been in the past 40 years. I’m from about 45 miles away from Cedar Key. There’s a lot of people, including in my family, that’ll go for deer and hog. Mullet is big in the area, I can’t even exclude the occasional squirrel but not crow. :lol:
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3042 Postby sasha_B » Thu Sep 26, 2024 4:35 pm

grapealcoholic wrote:920 ceiling

Agreed. We're at that stage where intensification is happening faster than best track & NHC advisories are updating, so the data from recon in these hours leading up to landfall are going to be crucial to understanding the storm's true 'peak' intensity. Low- to mid-920s seems like a strong upper (lower?) limit, since Helene's running out of time over water, but I wonder if the storm's not already pushing at ~940hPa & 115+ kt sustained winds.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3043 Postby xironman » Thu Sep 26, 2024 4:35 pm

Ken711 wrote:Ryan Maue
@RyanMaue
·
10m
Helene is part of a massive circulation over the entire Southeast U.S.

We thought this would hold back the storm w/negative shear or dry air. Nope. Helene turned the tables to its advantage instead drawing baroclinic energy from the deep-layer trough. Really bad.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GYbpp8xaUAA-MHk?format=jpg&name=small
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GYbpp8ua4AATCNh?format=png&name=medium


Yeah the position of the weird cutoff will enhance the surface low to the SE, its the way it works
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3044 Postby Beef Stew » Thu Sep 26, 2024 4:35 pm

WaveBreaking wrote:horrifying.

https://i.imgur.com/LuSE1Vm.gif

Take this storm and move it southeast a bit and I'd be hard pressed to distinguish it from Ian. They look uncannily similar, both in structure and evolution. Ian had a bit more time to intensify upon final approach, but Helene is still an extremely powerful storm.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3045 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Sep 26, 2024 4:35 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3046 Postby Travorum » Thu Sep 26, 2024 4:36 pm

ADT Final T# is up to 6.0/115kts, and that was before the hot tower blowing up in the SE closed off the W circle.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3047 Postby Nimbus » Thu Sep 26, 2024 4:37 pm

caneman wrote:43,000 without power in Tampa Bay


NHC shifted track to the crack..
Might save Tally?


https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3048 Postby WaveBreaking » Thu Sep 26, 2024 4:38 pm

Possible stadium effect showing up on geocolor imagery

Image
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3049 Postby ROCK » Thu Sep 26, 2024 4:38 pm

RECON going straight for a center pass....wont be long...go with 945MB.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3050 Postby MarioProtVI » Thu Sep 26, 2024 4:39 pm

Decent chance recon finds C4 support this pass. Eye is rapidly warming and up to 2.1C so far according to satellite estimates. Ceiling of about 130-135 kt, and an outside chance of Cat 5 is certainly not impossible (although I find it unlikely)
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3051 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Sep 26, 2024 4:39 pm

Ugh I'm going to be busy for the next 2 hours so I'm going to miss the Recon readings.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3052 Postby caneman » Thu Sep 26, 2024 4:41 pm

Nimbus wrote:
caneman wrote:43,000 without power in Tampa Bay


NHC shifted track to the crack..
Might save Tally?

Y




https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions


Probably but it's looked like Perry from the beginning.
Last edited by caneman on Thu Sep 26, 2024 4:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3053 Postby Beef Stew » Thu Sep 26, 2024 4:41 pm

Guessing 947 mb for the first pass
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3054 Postby weeniepatrol » Thu Sep 26, 2024 4:42 pm

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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3055 Postby PavelGaborik10 » Thu Sep 26, 2024 4:43 pm

946 is my guess
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3056 Postby TomballEd » Thu Sep 26, 2024 4:45 pm

HurricaneBelle wrote:
psyclone wrote:TS conditions here. Extra spicy. Power flashes....we're going dark soon


My son, who's off 19/Tampa Rd and lost power for almost a day during Debby, is currently part of a 3K customer power outage. My neighborhood has underground lines and stayed up all through Debby and is still up, but something can always happen downstream.
A month and a half before Beryl, a derecho with embedded tornado spinups at the front edge of the line twisted and toppled the big metal transmission towers, the type Godzilla used to tear down. If those go down, buried lines in the subdivision may not help. They may also intentionally black out areas of the grid so lineman can fixed damaged lines that aren't buried without risk of electrocution.

Waiting on NOAA recon to get to the center.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3057 Postby Teban54 » Thu Sep 26, 2024 4:45 pm

Damn.

Image
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3058 Postby Kazmit » Thu Sep 26, 2024 4:45 pm

Beautiful but scary.

Image
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3059 Postby Coolcruiseman » Thu Sep 26, 2024 4:46 pm

I’ll make a guess of 945
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3060 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Sep 26, 2024 4:47 pm

Those mesovorts are stretching and warping the crap out of the eyewall. Lightning everywhere in the core except the sw quad. It’s been a while since the last flight registered 951mb, I’d guess low 940s is what they’ll find.
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